Energy: Crude oil will finish up 1% on the day, closing at its 50 day MA. Prices are up almost $3/barrel in the last week, and could continue to grind higher. As long as the 20 day MA holds, I am bearish. That being said, I would not rule out a correction and today, I advised hedgers to book a small profit and move to the sidelines. Speculators should tighten up stops. RBOB closed higher by 1.47% at its 100 day MA at a two week high. Like oil, I am mildly bullish as long as prices are above the 8 and 18 day MA. What scares me is that on a risk off trade, prices could be back at $2.60 in January, so longs need to trail stops. Heating oil finished up 1.23%, closing at its 18 day MA. To me, this market has the best upside potential in this complex, but heat has not proven itself yet. The increased demand will come for this market, not RBOB, in the coming weeks, in my opinion. Natural gas closed higher for the second day running, a feat that had not been accomplished in three weeks. I like scaling into bullish trade in April via options, expecting more upside. A settlement above the 8 day MA would be the first sign that we are moving the correct direction. See yesterday's post to get more precise details on strategy.
Stock Indices: As of this post, the S&P is higher by 0.88%, lifting prices to eight week highs. All of last week's losses have been recovered, as we are now within 1.5% off the highs made in September. Regular readers know my stance -- I am expecting a trade south between now and the end of the year. Some of my clients remain in their bearish trade… they are down just over $1000 per strategy. In full disclosure, this is a tiny position for clients and with the loss, it amounts to approximately a 4% draw on their accounts. I have been catching grief because some followers thought I was all in or outright short futures, and that is NOT the case. The Dow gained 0.63% to close at eight week highs as well, with prices1.6% from their fall highs. We are bucking the trend but will stay the course, thinking we get a violent correction this week or next. Those not short but long should be looking to take profits on any index longs or outright stock holdings before year's end, in my opinion.
Metals: Bearish engulfing candle in gold, closing down 1.55% and hitting my $1670 target. In the last week, prices are off just better than 3%. There should be more selling to follow, as my next objective is $1650 -- the up sloping trend line from summer and the last congestion area from late August. Silver has lost ground the last four days, breaking its 100 day MA today, off by nearly 2%. This drags prices to five week lows, though there should be more selling to follow. My next target in March futures is $30.75, and I cannot rule out filling the gap under $30/ounce from 8/22. Once this leg plays out, I think it will be a great longer term swing trade entry so keep dry powder, as this week or next I will likely be reversing with clients.
Softs: Cocoa lost 1.15% today and forced into the market, I would rather be short than long. Clients have no exposure currently. Sugar filled the gap from Friday and closed 1.7% off its lows above the 20 day MA. Fresh entries should be purchasing bull call spreads in May. Cotton maintains at elevated levels, but I'm looking for signs of weakness and have started to price out bearish strategies. OJ is approaching seven month highs, but I do not think current prices are sustainable. Do not buck the trend and wait for confirmation but like cotton, I see bearish trades in the next two weeks. What a letdown in coffee, as prices went from 2 cents higher to 2 cents lower in today's action. The recent lows held, but we need to see appreciation in the immediate future to salvage premium on our March calls. The trend line at $1.49 in March needs to be penetrated this week or next to have any hope.
Treasuries: 30-year bonds continued to crack down 0.72% today, as prices traded under 1460'00 in March for the first time since late October. Bearish sentiment persists but as I said yesterday, maybe the easy money on bearish trade has been made. Next support is eyed at 145'00. 10-year notes also gave up ground, taking prices to seven week lows. Resistance is seen at 132'16 in March, while support is at 131'10… trade accordingly. A trade that is not on anyone's radar is bearish exposure in long date euro-dollars... I'm talking 2015 and 2016 contracts. Inquire to find out more details.
Livestock: Fresh highs were rejected in live cattle, then a reversal and a close on the lows -- a shot across the bow that prices may be due for a correction. It is preliminary but assuming we crack from here, a 50% Fibonacci retracement puts February at under $1.31. A bearish engulfing candle in feeder cattle puts prices down 1.26% today, erasing the last three days of gains. First sign of an interim top would be a settlement under the 9 day MA -- currently at $1.5160 in January. Lean hogs went the other way, bouncing off the 9 day MA and challenging the 20 day MA on the upside. As long as 84.80 holds in February, I am mildly friendly.
Grains: A potential triple bottom in corn, as prices are challenging the bottom of the trading range we've seen in the last four months. As long as prices hold at these levels, I am advising clients to hold their March bullish trades. On a break, we may need to trade around the position. I think in the coming weeks, we see prices near the upper end of this range, which means 50 cents/bushel higher. Soybeans gave up 2%, closing under their 20 day MA. As I said yesterday when that happened, be out of bullish trade. After a $1.25 run in the last month, here comes the retracement. Solid support is not seen for an additional 30 cents. Wheat was the lone positive in the Ag complex today, as $8/bushel continues to support. A solid base may be forming, but let's digest a few more sessions before making a move.
Currencies: The greenback continues to grind lower, off 0.30% today. From here, it appears the September lows could be challenged. As long as the dollar is out of favor, the euro and swiss will remain the go-to crosses. Both broke out to fresh seven month highs today. To me, the likely candidates to benefit from the risk off trade are the kiwi and aussie. Today's chart of the day made a compelling argument why the aussie could see par early 2103... in my opinion. The boat is leaning one way in the yen, and for everyone to be right and the yen to continue lower is unlikely. That being said, maybe some inexpensive upside option exposure merits your attention.
Risk Disclaimer: The opinions contained herein are for general information only and not tailored to any specific investor's needs or investment goals. Any opinions expressed in this article are as of the date indicated. Trading futures, options, and Forex involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.