A Bear Market Within a Bear Market 5 comments
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The S&P 500 was down 25% over the past 12 trading days. This is a bear market within a bear market.
Volume picked up on Thursday, with 8.8 billion shares traded and the 2002 lows were taken out like they were not even there. Once again, it was the last two hours that caused the pain. The market was flat at 2 pm - the losses came thereafter. The total loss was 4.22% in the final two hours of trading.
End of the day volatility has been mind-boggling as of late - the average change in the final two hours of trading over the past eight days has been 2.61%.
These are the returns over the last two hours of trading since the beginning of last week:
November 11, -1.63%
November 12, -1.54%
November 13, +4.60%
November 14, -2.72%
November 17, -1.52%
November 18, +2.26%
November 19, -2.38%
November 20, -4.22%
I keep pounding the table that the market is cheap. That matters little in the near-term but is the single most important factor in the long term.
Price to earnings [P/E] ratio trailing 12 months, 16.2x - which includes the hundreds of billions of dollars in write-offs.
Forecasted P/E, 9.9x
Running of the Bulls normalized P/E, 10.6x
Price to book, 1.5x
Price to sales, 0.7x
Price to operating cash flow, 4.7x
Dividend yield, 4.02%
These are all levels last seen in the early 1980s.
I am a buyer on weakness. The uber-bears are over-playing their hand. There will be no repeat of the Great Depression. The end of the world is not happening - it just feels that way.
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This article has 5 comments:
i sincerely wonder how many folks said that in 1929,30,31,32, etc...
surely you are right, but clearly, the market is not done with the argument.
i bought goog when they kicked out their new browser... $460ish, got tired of the bleeding and sold near $400, $260 now... certainly can't go much lower...
you guys first... :^)
tnx for a good read.
--ikk
Good luck with that. Given the market just made fresh new lows, I think I'll wait a bit and see what transpires before risking my money.
Not forecasting anything, but it's possible that it could be a repeat of the Great Depression, or worse. Only time will tell. GE sure looked cheap at 18 a few weeks back. It's much cheaper now at 13.5 and someone who waited avoided a 25% haircut.
Maybe the barber isn't quite finished yet.