Sirius Investors: Decline in OEM Take Rate Something to Watch 103 comments
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In the latest quarterly filing by Sirius XM Radio (SIRI), the OEM take rate (on a proforma basis) was stated to be at 47%. This figure was compared to 50.7% the year before. While 3.7 points may not seem like much, it translates into millions of dollars.
If we assume that a typical quarter brings in 1,500,000 new OEM subscribers, what would all of this mean?
At the 50.7% take rate, 1.5 million cars would bring in 760,500 subscribers. With an ARPU (Average Revenue Per Unit) of $10.15 per month, this would mean quarterly revenue of $23.2 million from this group.
At the 47% take rate, the 1.5 million cars would bring in 705,000 subscribers. With an ARPU of $10.15 per month, this would mean quarterly revenue of $21.5 million from this group.
The difference is nearly $1.7 each quarter. It may not seem like a lot, but it does add up. The take rate will be the latest reason that some analysts will adjust their targets downwards. While the numbers are not yet big enough to consider threatening, they do bear watching. Because this is the first quarterly report of the combined company, people should watch all metrics closely to see if the trending is going in the appropriate direction.
Position: Long Sirius XM.
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This article has 103 comments:
Can it be more obvious that Sirius pays advertisers, bloggers, and people to post good things about Sirius?
Well, Mel the vote is pretty much over. You can stop paying people to post confusion and start paying for Xmass sales. Like you have a clue what the company needs (You don’t). I want to know how much Sirius paid this quarter for blogging advertising?
STOCK PREDICTION
Sirius at .06 before the split…
50 to 1 split puts it at 3.00
Shorts continue.
When it hits 1.00 after the split Mel will take it private 50 million on the cheap…
Yes, I am already prepared to sue Mel directly when he does the reverse split.
Economy hell, Mel is just another NWO elitist clown…
IMO, the next 14 months is going to be all down hill. Inflation is nothing like it will be in a few more months. Jobs will be lost and homes will be lost. People will not have money to buy cars. God I hope I am wrong.
Upside, Remember the 70’s?
If people have the money we have “not one set” but “two sets” of car sales booms to look forward too.
First, people are already moving to efficient vehicles, compact and new technologies. Boom, Boom, Boom, China and Mexico will make loads of money, Thank you NAFTA.
Second, as gas prices lower with US local oil now allowed again, the gas monopolies will once again take out all the competition and new technologies just like in the 80’s. People will want those big gas hogs again.
As the economy improves and gas companies adjust in the endless cycle of consumer gouging, people will forget about solar, electric cars and demand that “umph” on the peddle. All good news for automakers because they just keep cycling the same old…
Vote No to REV-Split
Vote No Mo Shares
Kick Mel Out!
He built a solid foundation and tanked the stock. Then, he used a special Vehical to buy up the stock. Then he took it private for a few years. When the smoke cleared, Poof, you had Viacom...
Tanking Sirius was the plan. Mel is a historic and confirmed crook. We are the chumps!
If we only knew about his history...
The next step will be for one of the paid crew to post a long, long blog about nothing. Then, the next blog will be a short argument over some unrelated point. This will go on the 5 or 6 more post to cover up the real post.
Usually Cos will come in with some 5 paragraph description of some trend. Next the other two paid bloggers S163, and RELMOR or MIGHT BE SIRIUS, SIRIUS DEPRESED and more user names will all “ HAIL Cos for his expert opinion that we all should follow.
Now, when some one post that any of these guys are leading (Influencing Investors) a session of 4 posts will follow all telling the guy how dumb he is for taking advise from this board. That is exactly what they are paid to do, lead and not take any blame for posting optimism continuously about Sirius.
I have seen these guys use more than eight user names each. All posing good Sirius propaganda. They introduce each other with amusing techniques. My personal favor introduction of a new user name is when all the paid bloggers take tern welcoming some unknown back to the board. Yes, these things are done 20 times a day to cover up any true thinking about what a bad company Sirius is and what a crook is Mel.
Yes folks, Sirius is spending your money in advertising. But this season it is not to sell subscriptions. Mel is spending money to get people to vote for the reverse split so he can buy Sirius up cheap.
But, for this blog you must expect lots of new user names all spamming my comments. That is how it works. I hate liars, but this has become just plain funny.
So now Mel has two RS options in Florida
a) RS - Reverse Split
b) RS - Run for Safety
I suggest third option
c) RS - Refinancing Soon
LOL
www.shortsqueeze.com/?...
Ouch.
The car business model was and is "not" a great idea today. They can't really get away from it now, I think that it's taking care of itself that way on it's own in the car market. I've been a subscriber for a number of years now with sirius and I do love it and will continue to pay for it as well. Good luck to you stockholders and may the schwartz be with you!
p.s. I'd love to get paid to BS on anything! Where do i sign up? lol
What the hell happened?
Lord, I feel like Rip Winkle where I've awakened from an extended slumber and the world is not the same world I feel asleep to so many years ago.
Unbelievable....
Oh, there is one more thing: If I had known that I would awaken to this nightmarish news, I would have stayed asleep....
Scot's Slant
Scot's Slant
I believe we need the Auto bailout, if only because of the "it might be a lehman" fear grip that the market is pricing right now.
Right now there is no way to explain the stock price other than manipulation from offshore hedgefunds who could care less whether you or i go to the crapper or not. Hopefully this administration will take some focus on this illegal manipulation and send a few people to jail that have been helping their cause.
Its just another storm that has to be weathered. This stock is down and as you can see almost everything in the market is. Alot are below their CASH value. None of this makes sense. I think if you have money to invest then reposition yourself and buy while its low. But thats just me.
It's time that the People benefit from bailouts, not Corporations. Let's call it "Trickle-Up Economics"!!!!!!!!!!!!...
Adjust their targets downward??? Where......to zero? All those numbers had to have been factored by now. Come on.....this action going on now has absolutely nothing to do with quarterly financials. My god, Circuit City has filed for BK and it is selling above SIRI! Look where GM is! Would you invest in that company right now? No, no, the share price has nothing to do with fundamentals any more.
Congress and their Blind trusts are DEEP in Financials.... Any other industry is a moot point to them. Siri share price will not go anywhere until Congress treats the Auto Industry like other Countries do. A level playing field for a wide open market (yes the GLOBAL market is just starting up!!) is in order. Even if a ratio of 1 export for every 10 imports would be better that what we have now!
The Financial market is CLOSED until the New Year.
Financials will not loan any money until the competitor buying spree has ended!!!
On Nov 21 03:37 AM SirusDun wrote:
> Don’t talk bad about Sirius here are you will be absorbed. (READ
> FAST)
>
> Can it be more obvious that Sirius pays advertisers, bloggers, and
> people to post good things about Sirius?
>
> Well, Mel the vote is pretty much over. You can stop paying people
> to post confusion and start paying for Xmass sales. Like you have
> a clue what the company needs (You don’t). I want to know how much
> Sirius paid this quarter for blogging advertising?
>
> STOCK PREDICTION
>
> Sirius at .06 before the split…
> 50 to 1 split puts it at 3.00
> Shorts continue.
> When it hits 1.00 after the split Mel will take it private 50 million
> on the cheap…
>
> Yes, I am already prepared to sue Mel directly when he does the reverse
> split.
>
> Economy hell, Mel is just another NWO elitist clown…
I guess I don't understand their numbers.
I have over 10,000 shares are SIRI. Average buy price is at $1.74 and I still do an automatically weekly investment of $100.00 for this stock.
Should I keep doing my automatic investments?
you borrow a share of stock and immediately sell it,
then at some point you have to buy it back and return the share you borrowed
so, if you can buy it cheaper, you make money when the stock price goes down. so, shorts make money when the stock price declines.
Automatic investing at this point in time is questionable!
But that choice is yours!
btw. . . . . . . If you're a blonde:
. Calm down. .
. . . . You don't have to return the exact stock you borrowed...
. . . . . . . .just the quantity you borrowed.
Sirus Dun:
You are correct . I was suspecting the same people you mention in your post to be the crook's poppets.
Stockgal :
I wont invest any more in this stock until I see any positive results , we are light years away from this happening , stop throwing your money away, stop giving your money to this corrupt Company headed by a crook nickname Mel.
anyone who thinks that someone is being paid to post positive thoughts here,...... is a complete idiot. And that goes for you too "on the back line"
With my Ameritrade Apex account I can put limit orders in at .1501 as a bid or ask and have executed at those exact prices. On Penny Stocks it is allowed. On my Retirement Accounts that I use Etrade for, I can only put in whole cent bid and asks unless I want to pay for a premium PowerEtrade Pro account or meet their minimum trade requirements to get access at no charge.
good luck on your trade, you have been patient.... At these levels a quick trigger (stop) is called for. Geithner announcement as Treasury Sec. is a surprise in timing. I guess the new administration has it ear to the ground and heard The Street say ..... Where are we going from here? (with Paulson declaring Mission Accomplished yesterday in his speech.... he really left Obama no choice but to announce)
I can buy more if it goes up.....Im doing well in gold mines today, check them out....
XAU might be having a break out
Sirius is not only sitting on between $3 billion and $4 billion in debt. It has also never posted a net profit. There are still questions about whether its merger with XM Satellite will yield enough cost cuts to make the operation profitable.
But, none of those things are the final nail in the coffin. If one of The Big Three goes under, especially if it is GM (NYSE: GM), Sirius will lose one of its largest sources of new subscribers. Since some people who take the service drop it every month, which is normal attrition, those customers have to be replaced. For the company to grow, each month has to show net new additions which greatly outweigh cancellations.
Sirius cannot afford to lose its flow of customers from a major car maker. If it does, it debt service will overwhelm it, and finding new capital will be impossible. Who want to lend money to a company which is losing its most important sales pipeline?
If GM drops, Sirius will fall within a month.
I CAME ACROSS THIS ARTICLE YESTERADY , AND I THOUGHT ABOUT SHARING THIS WITH ALL OF YOU .
I HAVE BEEN IN THIS STOCK FOR 5 YEARS
I HAVE OVER $400,000 INVESTED
GOD HELP US
If Congress bails them out, they will be exactly the same company, just with more money.
GMs car sales might improve in bankrupcy, as people flood for deals....
you guys suck and can kiss the dog's pooch hole...go back to where they grow you people...thank you.
My point from yesterday. This stuff (announcing, getting visible) MUST happen to stop the squatters from completely destroying our house. These squatters have been on a bad meth trip and have been busting up the place unchecked. Obama had to step in and he did. I also like Hillary as Sec of State which is all but official. We need the whole team not only in place but also already strategizing. If we could just get a sheriff to show up at the White House and evict Bush, I would do it. Good point about Paulson's adios speech yesterday--WTF??? As you know I was outraged yesterday by that and other tangibles.
This market is BEGGING for leadership. And Bush and Paulson are too busy planning their retirements with our money (and GS). The market loves Geithner and if they love it...I love it. This bodes well for next year.
We see SIRI excluded from today's rally. As we said, they will only pop now on autos news. Shorts know there's no hurry on this stock. We agree on the hedge. It's either real and it resolves or it's the biggest scam on the planet..which if anyone wants a lawsuit, that would be one to investigate.
No offense but.....you just figured that out? Like I said no offense. We've been watching this stuff for months. It's all mechanical due to the hedge.
MM's are the kings of the NAS. They make the rules (loosely used). They make their OWN rules. No chinese wall, they buy what you sell, execute your buys and kick your ass whenever they feel like it. They own the exchange. Prices are what they say they are. As far as the decimals. When the exchanges went off of fractions to decimals it changed Bid Ask spreads substantially (narrowed). In addition they use decimals out to ten thousandths to manipulate...mostly under a buck. Over a buck will sometimes use thousandths but rarely if ever ten thousandths. The ten thousandth place is MM's ace in the hole because few brokers will allow you to set a limit buy to the ten thousandth place. My broker allows me to use thousandths. With the ten thousandth place, MM's can tie your stock up forever.
When I used the word hedge, I wasn't referring to Hedge Funds (Hedgies). I meant the short hedge currently on this stock due to the bondholder financing...
Obviously from your keyboard to Obama team's ears..... LOL Sometimes knowing where the edge of the cliff is .... makes us a little morose in our thinking. We both knew yesterday how important today would be. The good news is that it appears that the new administration does also..... Bodes well for things to come... and the general markets showed it by breaking, not only their end of the day fear, but their holding long into the weekend fear..... Our day will come with the announcement of the Auto bailout...
wcorowitz
They don't pay fees the way we pay fees on individual trades... Also with the volume of shares that they are controlling and the money being made, all fees are built in as a cost against of doing business. The profit made from the manipulation, and it is legal, out weighs the expense. If you have more shares, at times that would take several million, you can manipulate this stock too.
Most penny stocks don't have this volume traded on a daily basis, which is why some have suggested that, at a much higher stock price, a reverse split is inevitable. A RS at around $2 a share and positive cash flow from operations, would be a good time to execute that. At these prices, what's the point. Delisting isn't even worth talking about with all of the companies now trading below a buck. NASDAQ delisting all of these companies now would be suicide for their own cash flow from the transaction business generated. Look for the rule to be extended into the 3Q before anyone even has to worry about delisting. It is not unprecedented for them to extend rules like they did after 9-11 and tech melt down in 2001-2003.
Isn't it funny how the Street has adopted this "waiting for the last hour (even 15 minutes) " to make the WHOLE move of the day? Used to be first hour and last hour were most volitile. But now they are making the entire day's move in the last 30 minutes. I wonder if this is new de rigeur? Or if things will settle more next year. I mean, I was out all day and got back a little before 3 and the Dow was down 65. Bizarre.
Yes I agree and I think another reason of going in long today was that Citi should have some big news this weekend of some kind to stop their bleeding--which should bode well for Monday. We still need to get a financials-led rally. That could be good for another 1K points next week. Would be a nice way to go into Thanksgiving huh? Why do I feel like the heavy lifting is starting to abate?? Finally.
Good call on the gold miners. I totally forgot about that. I just checked a company I used to trade DRDGOLD (DROOY). They had a good day today and look to be ready themselves for a breakout. Although, question is, if overall market rallys now in Dec, does gold stay on the back burner?
nice move on the gold and with the dollar showing relative strength. An additional bonus. I am still an owner of gold and silver, mostly gold now, as we have talked about silver becoming a problem with storage. I like American eagles, all sizes and the krugerrand of course. Lately the margin on coins is too high compared to spot and I haven't gotten into any of the stocks. I just hate the thought of owning paper and calling it gold. An old school thing that sticks with me. No one can argue with the returns you've gotten over the last week though.... again, Nice move in this time of dread....
Have a great weekend my friend...throw the dog a nice thick juicy steak!
i picked up more shares today. the only good feeling is watching my avg cost go below a dollar ;)
lol...if only making the shorts pay was tops on his list...like in September would have been great. Instead we've gotten this rotten scenario.
I will say this. There are only two scenarios about to play out very shortly. One is he is and always was going for the tank and was always planning the extra shares, reverse and restructure with current bondholders. If this is true, it's criminal. Truly evil and premeditated knowing it would ruin shareholders. Or two. He knows the drill, knew the stock was headed down here somewhere (of course we know it's been exacerbated by the bad market) but also has always known that the hedge would cover somewhere before the meeting--down here where massive profits could be locked up. I'm torn. I want to believe that because the hedge is so mechanical/artificial and destructive (and is even described as such in prospecti), Mel has just plain not worried about this drop (hence not A WORD to shareholders about why the stock is @ .14...or similar). I want to believe he doesn't care and has shown such to the world, because he's known all along it's about to change--and in a big way. But if not, you've got scenario 1.
Although I just thought of one last possibility...scenario 3. And that's that this thing blew up in his face and he lost the handle on it back in September. Because I'm still trying to reconcile his 2M share stock purchase @ 1.37. Did he think well, OK, the stock will go down to about a buck due to the hedge, languish there and then rebound when they did a bank refi sometime in September. But. Then this scenario went awry because the credit markets froze, then the market tanked in October and also the stock began taking on water (which happened fast). The SP dropped from a buck in mid September to .57 by September 30. So "3" is that this financing plan just fell off a cliff. Hence, then the sudden request for extra shares as they felt that would be their only way out. But my only issue there is, if that's what happened, you would expect sincerity from management and communication warning shareholders--of which we've received 0. And further, in the CC, Mel said nothing of the kind.
So I'm still betting on "2". If it turns out to be "1", as said, it's criminal. If it's "C", it's just plain bad luck or a plan going awry...but if that we're the case, he would have been obligated to say something about it, if nothing else, in the Q CC...not "We're in talks with lenders and expect to get that handled in short order." That right there is nowhere near explaining in honesty my "3" option to all. So we wait.
I suggest to all voting no to extra shares or reverse at this time. We want our "in short order" solution, not further dilution nor anything even close to it in the near future. As cos1000 says, I would also consider it dangerous to give them those powers (blank check at our expense). 8K's would be popping up in the news on a regular basis. And they will not be in any risk of being delisted until next Fall.
Puppets you know who you are.
What is the reason for puppets to be posting and kissing the crooks a$$ 24/7.
It is not for money?
don't you perhaps have something better to do with your time than wasting it miserably in front of a computer as penny stock cheerleader?
Who is the idiot ? I am sorry for you. stop acting like a bunch of old mates defending the crook with no profit to you whatsoever.
UNBELIEVABLE !!!
Get A LIFE !!!
as far as todays news of geithner getting the treasury job, judging by his resume he was groomed for it.. world bank, IMF, ny fed, the street liked it, he's all about globalization, just hope he'll focus on the u.s. first. we'll see. not a big fan of his , i'd have gone with an austrian school guy.
As for gold mines, they do well in deflationary conditions. Low fuel and a strong dollar is great for gold mines. High gold price is hurting either.
I would suggest to everyone getting involved in futures trading to consider the very real possibility of gold going to 0. Paper gold that is. If comex defaults, spot and all future contracts will be worthless. China and Russia would like nothing more than COMEX to disappear so they can price their gold in reality, not fiction. Chance by the end of next year gold is at 2-3k an ounce, and the futures market is gone.(all gold would be sold directly to minters, etc.. at agreed upon prices.
When times are tight, you sweep(countries build infrastructure...China spend 600 billion, we will spend at least that...)
All these things must happen in our country...
So instead of cleaning we will build and dig and put people to work all on the backs of you as a worker and your future kids and grandchildren. They will pay for the work now. If the dollar stays in play for 2-3 more years, expect 4-5k ounce gold.
Good job America!!!
You just elected Dick Cheney's cousin. NICE!!!
I have a clear conscience... I voted for Nader. Hes not related to Bush, or Cheney, or Oboma, or Kerry, or Linden Johnson, or Teddy Roosevelt... etc...
I dont elect royalty.
Glad you're finally out. So no longer any need for your words of wisdom here...Good luck on your next board. I'm sure you'll be able to find other genius' lile yourself.
And for that matter. Do yourself a favor. STOP LISTENING TO OTHERS. LEARN TO MAKE YOUR OWN DECISIONS AND TAKE RESPONSIBILITY FOR THEM. STOP BEING A SHEEP DUDE! YOU WILL LIVE A MUCH BETTER LIFE... Thank you and see ya..
Here's how it works around here (as if I even have to take the freaking time to write this):
1. If you show up here and read the OPINIONS written, fine, it's a free country (kind of, lol).. But for god sakes, NO ONE IS TALKING TO YOU. Some of us on these boards talk to ONE ANOTHER. That means we are NOT TALKING TO YOU, we are talking to each other. Unless specified, if you think someone is talking to you and that you should act on what you read, you are delusional and need help--I advise that you go see a doctor. Up the tail pipe is a good example of that.
2. If you have a worthwhile opionion, and want to post it...do so. But don't automatically assume just 'cause you decided to show up and post, anyone even cares that you're here (which technically applies the same to each and every one of us here). We don't. If someone wants to respond to you, they will. Otherwise you are here on your own volition and no one really gives a you know what, what you think. If you came here to constructively share an experience with others, it will be clear and others most likely will engage you. Otherwise, see the first part of #2.
3. If you came here to rag on others for expressing THEIR OPINIONS, then you are just another douche bag sheep who is lost from your flock and/or looking to irritate people for your own amusement. In that instance, yes, others here will call you out for what you are: A loser. Believe it, no one needs to be working for the company to identify and call out a loser. It's written all over you and your words. Again, if you equate being called out for the loser that you are with working for the company, then yes, you are also delusional and need a doctors help. You need meds, dude.
4. If you are here and think you can sway people to make decisions they otherwise wouldn't make...you're wasting your time. I suppose maybe you will get one or two, but if that's your big accomplishment for the year, I not only feel sorry for you but it also means only one thing. Yes...that's right: you're a loser. There's that word again! Except in this case you're a hollow loser, which is even lower. People talk about, this one works for the company, that one works for the company, the company is monitoring these boards and making decisions based on what they read...Peeps! Let's go back to the end of #3. You are delusional and need meds STAT! Back of the line and Sirius Dung Heap, you know who you are. What's next? Mel is an evil alien from another galaxy? Klaatu maybe? Folks, what's done is done. The stock is .14. Any other brave idiots want to make more bellwether calls that the stock will be .01? Fine, but your super sleuth vision impresses no one. You mean, you think the stock could lose anther .13? Wow. Really? What an against the grain, maverick call! Maybe we should all let you manage our money!! lol.
5. Lastly, we should just review points 1-4... No one is here talking to you unless directed--and don't think anyone here is your father and is telling you what to do or think...because they are not. Please learn to make your own decisions and be responsible for them. If you have a worthwhile opinion post it, but if you are only here to make yourself look like a hero and rag on others, get a life. If you are lost little sheep, please go find your flock. And if you really believe regular posters here are working for the company and are here to part you from your money...please...get meds and seek professional help. I might suggest one of those support groups where people talk about the voices inside their head, the people that are out to get them and aliens..stuff like that. But do get help. You need it.
Thank you.
I'm curious...
You seem as though you are just beginning your journey into the Wall Street jungle...what brings you to this board? This stock?
The Dick Cheney's cousin thing...LMFAO...intere... take on it.
And your comment about the digging, the building, basically the grunting...as I know you know...that's our society. That's how "it" works. The poor and the middle class allow the upper class to prosper. It's the model we brought here from England. Our society is so based on it, that we would implode under any other model. So that's what Obama is going to do. He's going to put the poor and middle class to work digging and building stuff to stablize unemployment and to keep those folks from advancing through education or cleansing as you say (not to say that people who build things aren't educated or smart...just that they aren't allowed to make the big bucks). If they were allowed to advance and make alot of money, you would have a tremendous inflationary imbalance that can not be supported in this country--ever. Just look at the car unions. They are being told they are making too much mioney and have to take paycuts. Which is stupid but it's just because of the foreign car builder models--whom, you have to believe were allowed in the is country in the first place to do exactly what is happening now. Break those higher union wages and knock the middle class back a peg or two.
That's what you have now..a cleansing of the middle class. Think about this. Why does anyone suppose so many middle class people's RETIREMENT money (the most sacred money of all) sits in 401k type of instruments, which in turn are tied directly to the highly volitile stock market? It's because of times like these. Because that money is then vulnerable and where it can be purged and easily delivered back to the wealthy. Why do all the "bubbles" burst. Why do we have a consistent "boom and bust" cyclical model? The answers are all the same: To give the middle class hope and create the illusion that they too can advance into the upper class--proverbial and perennial carrot on a stick for the "working" class. But when too many middle classers amass too much money either from saving or bubbles, that accumulation of wealth must be purged. And then they start back over again (meaning we, as I am a middle classer). It's the built-in governor of our economic system that always funnels wealth back to the wealthy. Kind of like an auto wealth distribution program. Remember when Bush wanted to get everyone's social security into the market? That would have been the ultimate form of control of this wealth distribution. Fortunately, in a case like that, our democratic system worked perfectly for the little guy and it was derailed. My god, could you see us right now with all the social security money also lost in this crash? Devastating to all but the wealthy.
Now you add in the lack of gold standard for what we now call currency and it spinning out of contol like Katrina, our debt load, and the other greed-driven instruments that we now know about and it equals a mess. Obama must concentrate in the next 4 years on reducing our debt. Reagan, Bush, Bush did nothing but jack it up to sick levels.
On Nov 22 12:13 PM sl62 wrote:
> Open Letter To All Posters On This Board...
>
> Here's how it works around here (as if I even have to take the freaking
> time to write this):........
>
On Nov 21 04:21 PM sl62 wrote:
> cos1000...
>
> My point from yesterday. This stuff (announcing, getting visible)
> MUST happen to stop the squatters from completely destroying our
> house. These squatters have been on a bad meth trip and have been
> busting up the place unchecked. Obama had to step in and he did.
> I also like Hillary as Sec of State which is all but official. We
> need the whole team not only in place but also already strategizing.
> If we could just get a sheriff to show up at the White House and
> evict Bush, I would do it. Good point about Paulson's adios speech
> yesterday--WTF??? As you know I was outraged yesterday by that and
> other tangibles.
>
> This market is BEGGING for leadership. And Bush and Paulson are too
> busy planning their retirements with our money (and GS). The market
> loves Geithner and if they love it...I love it. This bodes well for
> next year.
>
> We see SIRI excluded from today's rally. As we said, they will only
> pop now on autos news. Shorts know there's no hurry on this stock.
> We agree on the hedge. It's either real and it resolves or it's the
> biggest scam on the planet..which if anyone wants a lawsuit, that
> would be one to investigate.
On Nov 22 10:13 AM relmor wrote:
> The new gold is grains, water, and energy. Steel maybe ahead of copper
> and base metals. If Oboma gets what he wants, commodities prices
> will do well, as he will spend government money on infrastructure.
>
> When times are tight, you sweep(countries build infrastructure...China
> spend 600 billion, we will spend at least that...)
On Nov 22 10:20 AM relmor wrote:
> The ABOMINATION's choice for treasury secretary proves hes the exact
> same as Bush. No difference. We will get more of the same. The only
> difference in our government will be the face telling us the lies.
> Enjoy your 8 years of hell with one of the most evil men we have
> ever elected.....
> Good job America!!!
> You just elected Dick Cheney's cousin. NICE!!!
> I have a clear conscience... I voted for Nader. Hes not related to
> Bush, or Cheney, or Oboma, or Kerry, or Linden Johnson, or Teddy
> Roosevelt... etc...
> I dont elect royalty.
As far as replacing the CEO. I think in any other company, management would have been replaced already. Look at Citi..not the same company at all but the common is also being ground into dust. This company is different in the way that it seems to have a pre-determined destiny. We're all just watching to see what it is. To be honest, @ .14, and 4B shares out, things don't look real pretty at all. All that's really left (before some kind of major restructure is required) is for bottom feeders and short term traders to pick on the bones. With such a heavy short interest, which we know is still high as the stocked just legged down again, that's about the only card I'm playing. These guys are going to have to ice these profits at some point. As far as company metrics, etc...they all mean jack now @ .14 with this low market cap. As I've said and have always said. This is either going to resolve according to a reversal of the known hedge and other shorts, back to natural levels or you are going to see some kind of clusterF noise. They will not just quietly slip into BK or privatization. Not with all of the still remaining institutional holding (according to reported Q3 and volume here in 4th Q has not supported massive liquidation). Forget about Save Sirius...there will be many other bigger lawsuits slinging if this stock does not do an about face come meeting time. I'm just hanging out watching the festivities lol (and still invested). As stated, I have also voted no to both shares and reverse. We shall see...
I think they should just change the spelling of the word to Nucular. People just refuse to say Nuclear...lol
Without shorts, the a stock will be hugely volatile -- it will go up without any resistance, due to buying of overly optimistic buyers, to insane valuations. This is when the majority of retail buying comes in - always late - then, at the first break of bad news, it will drop like a rock b/c no buyers step in to break the fall.
Shorts keep the stock in check on the way up by selling, and they keep the stock from a free-fall on the way down by covering. You should be thankful shorting exists - you're just the type of investor who benefits from it.
You saw what happened when short sales were dis-allowed on financials -- it got ugly. No buyers at the first turn of "bad" news and we dropped like a rock.
On Nov 22 10:58 AM StockGal wrote:
> Thanks for the replies. I think it's crazy and stupid to be able
> to make money on a stock when it goes down... it's like betting against
> a stock. So you have people also hoping it tanks?
On Nov 22 02:19 PM sl62 wrote:
> JAL...
>
> As far as replacing the CEO. I think in any other company, management
> would have been replaced already. Look at Citi..not the same company
> at all but the common is also being ground into dust. This company
> is different in the way that it seems to have a pre-determined destiny.
> We're all just watching to see what it is. To be honest, @ .14, and
> 4B shares out, things don't look real pretty at all. All that's really
> left (before some kind of major restructure is required) is for bottom
> feeders and short term traders to pick on the bones. With such a
> heavy short interest, which we know is still high as the stocked
> just legged down again, that's about the only card I'm playing. These
> guys are going to have to ice these profits at some point. As far
> as company metrics, etc...they all mean jack now @ .14 with this
> low market cap. As I've said and have always said. This is either
> going to resolve according to a reversal of the known hedge and other
> shorts, back to natural levels or you are going to see some kind
> of clusterF noise. They will not just quietly slip into BK or privatization.
> Not with all of the still remaining institutional holding (according
> to reported Q3 and volume here in 4th Q has not supported massive
> liquidation). Forget about Save Sirius...there will be many other
> bigger lawsuits slinging if this stock does not do an about face
> come meeting time. I'm just hanging out watching the festivities
> lol (and still invested). As stated, I have also voted no to both
> shares and reverse. We shall see...
take responsibility for your OWN avarice and lack of knowledge or discipline. learn how to trade and most important - learn how to MITIGATE RISK. stop loss, peeps - learn how to use it.
On Nov 21 03:37 AM SirusDun wrote:
> Don’t talk bad about Sirius here are you will be absorbed. (READ
> FAST)
>
> Can it be more obvious that Sirius pays advertisers, bloggers, and
> people to post good things about Sirius?
>
> Well, Mel the vote is pretty much over. You can stop paying people
> to post confusion and start paying for Xmass sales. Like you have
> a clue what the company needs (You don’t). I want to know how much
> Sirius paid this quarter for blogging advertising?
>
> STOCK PREDICTION
>
> Sirius at .06 before the split…
> 50 to 1 split puts it at 3.00
> Shorts continue.
> When it hits 1.00 after the split Mel will take it private 50 million
> on the cheap…
>
> Yes, I am already prepared to sue Mel directly when he does the reverse
> split.
>
> Economy hell, Mel is just another NWO elitist clown…
You should have received you Proxy Vote paper work already if you are a shareholder of record, as of Oct 22,2008. I am giving the cut off date that I believe to be the correct one, but you need to check with your broker or online brokerage to find out how your documents are delivered. My docs come via email notice and then are located in my account for processing online. Once you are established as a shareholder of record all forms are available for you to access and then vote.
And by the way, there is one more thing: While understanding that nobody on this board holds a crystal ball that fortells the future, can anybody offer a LOGICAL, well thought out opinion as to whether Sirius is teetering on the edge of bankruptcy? Or, better yet, can anybody offer a sound opinion that Sirius shareholders WILL NOT end up screwed and holding worthless shares of paper that will be used to wipe our sore asses after our morning turds?
Scot's Slant
Anyone who shorted this stock is right. I guess Weinkes is right for all the wrong reasons. His recent .25 stock price is wrong by 44% and his .50 stock price was right for about a week. Using Weinkes price targets and wrong metrics as entry points, would have all investors losing tons of money. Yet he is the most praised for his wisdom in picking direction. I am not an ananlyst by trade and have taken another hit on my recent buy back in. I have clearly stated that. As far as my other investments, they have all taken a hit at this time. Haven't yours?? What world do you live in?
Bankruptcy is not a function of Stock Price. It is a function of whether or not a company can pay and has paid its bills. Sirius has done that and with its cash on hand, can continue to do that, well beyond May of next year without any growth in subscribers. As a matter of fact, it costs Sirius to generate new subscribers. A lot of their debt to this point is from their choosing accelerated growth, unique and expensive content, and market share, over cost containment and generating FCF. As a monopoly, Sirius can get back to fundamentals without the induced competition from the duopoly that caused the race for subscribers.
In my opinion Sirius is not advertising at this time because we are going to see one of the worst retail quarters this Holiday Season. To confirm their getting back to cost cutting, they are not wasting money by advertising to a consumer that will not spend, saving thousands of dollars. To my and others dismay, they are not pushing for their new products and subscriptions through advertising this retail season, other than The Best of Both, which generates immediate subscriber resets and tons of cash. The fact again is that if advertising isn't going to add to the bottom line at this time, then they shouldn't be doing it. Its like "pushing on a string" and wasting cash when it should be conserved.
If the stock price continues to go down from here, then it still does not mean bankruptcy. Generating cash and reducing expenses at this time is what any good "Business Operator" should be doing. Announcement of debt refinancing, auto makers receiving a government bailout, Bond Holders covering their short positions to lock in profits are the only news of any interest that will move this stock. On Friday this stock traded more shares in 1 day, 62 Mil, than most small caps trade in a month and in some cases a quarter. There is a lot of interest in this penny stock.... and I have put a lot of pennies into owning this company because I still see the technology and company as viable, but everyone else should decide for themselves. This is a gamble at best at these prices.
The above is not an answer to your request because I hadn't seen it when I wrote my post above. Going into a line by line analysis of BK or not, is what every investor should do for themselves.
As I said above, with existing subscribers, Sirius is receiving revenue for an investment already made, in the metric represented by SAC expense. Revenue from these subs now go to generating FCF earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA). New subs are an additional operating expense for chipsets subsidy and revenue sharing, that hit the bottom line as payments to their partners. Different partners have different agreements which have still not yet been clearly defined.
To date we still do not know what the Newly defined operating metrics will be for this company to show FCF and profitability. Everyone, including myself, is assuming that new net subscribers, represented by New Subs - Churn, must meet or beat the past growth when they were competing. I now think that this might be a False assumption and a costly one for the company to even try to maintain. Subscriber neutral numbers are not necessarily a bad thing for this company in the short term. Especially if other avenues for revenue can be developed, such as the Best of Both has been. A comprehensive analysis of the Cost of Growth as it relates to FCF needs to be done the best avenue for new revenue growth needs to be determined.
With an economic downturn causing a melt down of the auto industry and credit markets, it might be several quarters before Growth in Subscribers beyond Churn even matters to the company's bottom line performance. A few goals that all the silence has me feeling that they are focused on are:
1. Getting the operation as lean as possible. Removing non performing content (ratings) and consolidating programming to make way for interoperability.
2. Surgically targeted marketing that grows revenue period, including ideas that have been presented here and on other boards. Emergency broadcast channels leased, channel sponsorship by quality companies, and even explore a commercial based free service that excludes any premium channels without a base non commercial paid subscription first. Would give exposure to satellite radio, free weekday sampling periods could be provided to show the difference, and Ad Revenue could assist the bottom line, from all of those turned off units that chipsets have already been paid for. Terrestrial Radio but better.
3. Developing lucrative partnerships that generate revenue and not buzz. Some type of listen, download and pay service would be great.
4. Maximize star power of current talent under contract to develop Consumer Awareness of product, services, and content available.
5. Consolidate products for interoperability. One family of portable devices, Wi Fi capable (Slacker Like), Tiered Functions at different price points, Camera & Mobile phone would be great. Retail radios should be standardized in format and function. I know the FCC open access has put some restrictions on how much control the company has here, but there has got to be a way to not have so many products by all of those manufacturers.
With the little bit of news trickling out of the company and restricted to required reporting events only, I find it hard to believe that most of the above ideas are not in the works. First they must settle the debt issues. Then they can move on to bring this company towards its full potential. IMHO
Scot's Slant
On Nov 21 08:38 AM wcorowitz wrote:
> SIRI needs to get away from the car business model immediately!!!!
> I like to listen to music in other places besides my car. Get a deal
> with apple,RIMM, etc. Where's Mel??????????
On Nov 23 12:55 AM frankie cooper wrote:
> you guys who threaten to sue MEL sound so ridiculous. you DO realize
> that you would be suing SIRI-XM, not MEL. and you DO realize that
> you would have to PAY (out of YOUR pocket) an attorney (because no
> one would take the case as a class action and actually believe he
> could win..), and that MEL would pay ZERO to defend himself because
> SIRI-XM would be footing the bill (actually, dummy, YOU the shareholder
> would be footing the bill....). so who loses? again and again - its
> you.....
>
> take responsibility for your OWN avarice and lack of knowledge or
> discipline. learn how to trade and most important - learn how to
> MITIGATE RISK. stop loss, peeps - learn how to use it.
On Nov 22 02:29 PM sl62 wrote:
> Shure46...
>
> I think they should just change the spelling of the word to Nucular.
> People just refuse to say Nuclear...lol