Seeking Alpha
Profile| Send Message| ()  

I've been tracking the implosion of the core business of Zynga (ZNGA) since my frist article September 27 and more details November 30th, illustrating how quickly popularity declines week after week with Zynga's most popular games. In response to its declining business, ZNGA is making a great push into mobile gaming as the company struggles to turn things around. Most of Zynga's games could not be played on the BlackBerry operating systems of the past which has restricted the overall user base to Zynga's games, but perhaps the new BlackBerry 10 will change that and help save ZNGA. I'll explain.

First, a bit of background on my Zynga tracking. As explained in Zynga's most recent 10Q filing, their top 3 to 5 games can be anywhere from 50% to 80% of the entire company's revenues so I find it important to track the monthly average users (MAU) and daily average users (DAU) traffic trends of their top games. Below is an updated detail on the top 5 games of Zynga (from three months ago according to appdata.com) and what's happened to them since that time (figures in millions).

ChefvilleSlingoTexas Hold 'emBubble SafariThe Ville
DATEMAUDAUMAUDAUMAUDAUMAUDAUMAUDAU
09-2255.56.643.62.936.36.930.44.630.22.9
09-3050.24.953.02.139.36.730.34.024.42.1
10-1435.04.430.11.838.56.228.73.520.21.7
10-2428.24.123.41.835.86.226.43.517.11.5
11-1823.73.819.21.533.86.324.62.911.10.9
11-2922.83.617.41.434.66.323.42.99.60.9
12-0622.53.816.21.333.76.122.22.98.80.8
12-1822.33.214.61.233.46.620.72.47.50.7
Decline-59.8%-51.5%-66.5%-58.6%-8.0%-4.3%-31.9%-47.8%-75.2%-77.6%

So what does this have to do with the BlackBerry 10 operating system from Research In Motion (RIMM) expected to come out early in 2013? For starters as mentioned earlier, on the current BlackBerry operating system, users have been unable to access or play most of ZNGA's games from their mobile devices. This has essentially locked out 60+ million people despite the popularity of Facebook (FB) among its users. According to RIMM's September EC, the BB10 is a game changer that is going to open up accessibility to apps such as Facebook. Its CEO states "we not only understand social networking, we embrace it." He went on to say, "We expect social networking to continue to grow and flourish in a BlackBerry 10 environment as BlackBerry 10 brings all of these conversations together in the BlackBerry Hub. With BlackBerry 10, we have elegantly woven together a mobile life by bringing together communications, the Internet, people and events, multimedia and social networks like Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn, foursquare and even more to give users immediate access to the information they need and want."

Sounds like the new BB10 will allow the full version of Facebook and all of its features will finally be available to BlackBerry users. And with that, Zynga games. Can't hurt Facebook either, which continues to collect royalties from Zynga. Depending on the popularity of the new BB10, this could be an enormous and much needed revenue booster for ZNGA (and in turn Facebook). But is it enough to save Zynga's otherwise imploding business? We shall soon find out.

Source: Can The BlackBerry 10 Save Zynga?