Shorts Keen To Watch Paychex After Evening Earnings

| About: Paychex, Inc. (PAYX)

Paychex (NASDAQ:PAYX) is set to report its Q2 results after the closing bell tonight, and analysts polled by Capital IQ are expecting the company to report a profit of $0.41 per share on revenue of $573 million.

In looking back at PAYX session-to-session performance following after-hours earnings, we've found the stock is typically a decent next-day mover. It has put up more aggressive percentage closing moves in next-day trading following 17 of the last 31 earnings events that we've tracked.

Looking deeper into the performance data, PAYX is evenly mixed in following upside evening trade with more aggressive next-day regular session action. PAYX has moved higher in after-hours trade following 14 of the 31 quarters we've tracked, and in seven of those events, or 50% of the time, longs were treated to more robust next-day upside moves than those seen in the after-hours.

On the short side, PAYX favors seeing deeper next-day moves into the red following earnings-driven after-hours declines. It has posted an evening decline in 16 quarters, and it has followed the downside moves with more vigorous selling the following day 10 times, or 63% of the time. We have two other earnings events where PAYX ended the evening session flat and declined the following regular sessions.

On Sept. 24, 2012, PAYX gained 1% in after-hours action after beating Q1 earnings estimates and missing on revenue. The stock reversed direction the next day, closing the Sept. 25 regular session off 2.8%.

On June 27, 2012, PAYX ended the after-hours flat after missing on Q4 revenue and meeting on earnings. The stock closed the June 28 regular session down 2.9%.

On March 28, 2012, PAYX edged up 0.06% in after-hours action after meeting Q3 expectations. The stock reversed course the next day, closing the March 29 regular session down 1.9%.

On Dec. 20, 2011, PAYX declined 3.4% in after-hours trade after missing Q2 revenue expectations. The stock cut its downside the next day, ending the Dec. 21 regular session off 2.5%.

On Sept. 27, 2011, PAYX gained 1.8% in evening trade after beating Q1 estimates. The stock reversed direction the next day, closing the Sept. 28 regular session at the flatline.

On June 22, 2011, the stock gained 1.1% in extended-hours trading following earnings that beat. Shares rose 2.8% the next day.

On March 23, 2011, PAYX slipped 0.1% in after-hours trade after posting better-than-expected Q3 results. The stock recorded more aggressive selling the next day, closing the March 24 regular session down 3.9%.

On Dec. 20, 2010, PAYX edged up 1% in after-hours trade after beating Q2 estimates. The stock lost its gain the following day, reversing to close with a 0.03% decline on Dec. 21.

On Sept. 27, 2010, PAYX edged up 0.1% in evening action after topping Q1 expectations. The stock firmed higher the following day, closing the Sept. 28 regular session up 0.8%.

On June 23, 2010, PAYX declined 3.2% in after-hours trade after just beating Q4 expectations. It cut its downside the following day, closing the June 24 regular session down 2.3%.

On March 24, 2010, PAYX edged 0.7% lower in evening trade after coming in just shy of Q3 revenue expectations. The stock moved deeper in the red the following day, declining 3.9% in the March 25 regular session.

On Dec. 16, 2009, PAYX advanced 3.3% in after-hours trade after the company met revenue expectations, beat on earnings, and maintained its outlook. The stock lost its upside the following day, ending the Dec. 17 regular session down 2%.

On Sept. 23, 2009, PAYX lost 2% in evening action after missing revenue expectations and meeting the Street view on earnings. The stock was hit for sharper losses the next day, declining 6.1% in the Sept. 24 regular session.

On June 24, 2009, PAYX declined 3.3% in after-hours trade after missing Q4 expectations. The stock added to its downside the following day, ending the June 25 regular session down 6.1%.

On March 25, 2009, the stock edged up 0.1% after reporting in line with earnings. The stock jumped 9.5% the next day.

On Dec. 17, 2008, the stock advanced 2% in evening action despite a Q2 earnings miss. We did not track its regular-session move.

On Sept. 24, 2008, the stock fell 1% in evening trading after PAYX matched with EPS but was shy with revenue. The loss expanded to 1.8% the next day.

On June 26, 2008, PAYX advanced 3% in evening trade after meeting earnings expectations but missing on revenue. The stock lost its gain the next day, ending the June 27 regular session down 1.4%.

On March 26, 2008, the stock fell 1.6% during evening trading after the company reported. The stock rebounded to gain 1.4% the next day.

On Dec. 19, 2007, the stock shed 1.5% despite reporting ahead with Q2 results. The loss expanded to 3.8% the next day.

On Sept. 26, 2007, PAYX fell 2.8% in after hours when the company beat Q1 EPS estimates but missed on sales. Shares extended those losses a bit the next day, ending the regular session down 3.6%.

On June 27, 2007, PAYX dropped 2.3% in night trade after mostly missing Q4 and FY expectations. Shares held that level through the next day session, also ending at down 2.3%.

On March 28, 2007, PAYX eased 1.2% in evening hours despite higher Q3 results from a year ago. Shares dipped further the next day, ending the regular session down 1.9%.

On December 20, 2006, PAYX edged up 3.1% in night trade after missing Q2 sales estimates but topping on EPS. However, shares could not hold onto all their evening gains and closed the next day session up only 1.2%.

On Sept. 26, 2006, PAYX declined 2.9% in after-hours action after the company beat Q1 expectations. The downside thinned out the following day, with PAYX closing the regular session off a mere 0.8%.

On June 28, 2006, shares fell 2.2% in the post-bell session after PAYX reported ahead of the Street with its latest revenue but just in line with EPS. The stock fought back to end just in the positive the next day, up 0.2%.

On March 28, 2006, PAYX dropped 1.9% in the evening hours after sales topped Wall Street's expectations but EPS came in a penny short. The stock clawed back to post a 1.5% gain the next day.

On December 21, 2005, PAYX dipped 0.9% in evening trade despite beating Q2 expectations and maintaining its FY06 outlook. Shares slid further the next day, ending the regular session down 4.3%.

PAYX jumped 7% the night of Sept. 27, 2005 after the company beat Street estimates and raised its revenue growth outlook. Buyers pushed it even higher on Sept. 28, goosing it 9.2% by the close of regular session trade.

On June 27, 2005 PAYX advanced 3.5% in after-hours trading after the company topped the Street view. The stock added to its upside on June 28, rising 9.9% in the regular session.

On March 21, 2005 PAYX gained 2% in evening trade after the company posted in-line results. Buyers flooded into the issue on March 22, boosting PAYX 6.1% by that day's closing bell.

On Dec. 21, 2004 PAYX beat Q2 estimates and the stock edged up 1.1% in the after-hours session. It found slightly more bullish support on Dec. 22, advancing 1.7% in the regular session.

On Sept. 21, 2004 PAYX was hit for a 1% decline in evening play after the company beat on revenue and met on EPS. Sellers firmed their pressure on Sept. 22, pushing the stock down 3.4% between the bells.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.