Did The Mayans Catch A Glimpse Of RIM's Q3 Earnings?

| About: BlackBerry Ltd. (BBRY)

A few thousand years ago the Mayans predicted that the "End of Times" would fall on Dec 21,2012. What exactly did they foresee that would trigger such an event? Was it a meteor? Was it a massive flood? Was it solar flares? Maybe , just maybe, they caught a glimpse of RIM's (RIMM) 3rd Quarter results!

Lets face it, RIM has been on a tear the last few months appreciating over 120% in a relatively short time. With such an aggressive price movement on this stock it becomes a very sensitive. Tonight after the market closes RIM will announce its Q3 earnings. Good news or bad, this stock will have some significant action when the markets open on Friday. Could this be the trigger for the Mayan 2012 Prophecy that was foretold thousands of years ago?

Kris Thompson, an analyst with National Bank, pointed out that "it's a good time to take some profits ahead of earnings". Thompson upgraded the stock back in November but recently downgraded from Market Outperform to Market Perform. His price target remains the same at $15 however he feels that with the recent huge gains the stock has made it may be a good time to step out and see what happens at earnings.

After some serious soul searching i have come to the same conclusion. Thompson still believes in the "Long RIM" theory around BB10 as do I. My emotional side tells me to hang in but my investor side compelled me to take my profits and wait for the dust to settle after earnings.

Investors (especially the 25% short interest) will be watching every detail of the earnings report and the stock stands to make some serious moves in either direction depending on the news.

The Good:

  • Have they added to the subscriber base?
  • Have they executed the 1 billion dollar cost reduction plans?
  • Do they have more insight into the details of the BB10 launch?

The Bad:

  • Are they losing significant subscribers?
  • Have margins eroded significantly?
  • Are there any roadblocks to launching BB10?

RIM has a history of dropping some pretty big bombs at earnings time, however, they surprised everyone when they announced better than expected results in Q2 back in September. By not being "as bad" as everyone expected and surprising with 2 million more subscribers this started the rally that has driven the stock to where it is today.

I am rooting for RIM to report out some great news and I plan on getting back in very soon. My investment strategy with RIMM is a long play based on BB10 winning back market share--and that doesn't roll out until after the apocalypse!

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, but may initiate a long position in RIMM over the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.