Lucky Number 13: A Big Two-Day Advance in the Dow

In case you were thinking "Good God, this has been a huge two-day advance in the Dow", you're right. It has been a huge two-day advance in the Dow index. Here is the top 15 list of all-time two-day advances in the index, including today, which is highlighted in dark yellow. Note that this was the largest two-day advance since 1987, and, more importantly, the rest of the entire list is populated by the Great Depression.

Until the Dow lost 200 points in the closing minutes of trading, we were up more than 13% over the two days, which had us in the top ten.

Comments

[PastTense:]

Isn't part of this because Citibank is one of the 30 companies--and got the massive bailout?

2008 Nov 24 08:42 PM

[tedS:]

Hi Paul,

You did not draw a conclusion from the data, noting "Note that this was the largest two-day advance since 1987, and, more importantly, the rest of the entire list is populated by the Great Depression". Do you imply that we are now in another Great Depression? If so, how can it be "lucky"?

2008 Nov 24 09:19 PM

[MiddleOfRoader:]

FDR was inaugurated March 4, 1933 in the middle of a bank panic, proclaiming "The only thing we have to fear is fear itself." Apparently it was a time of fear and paralysis. The next day he declared a bank holiday. After Congress passed an Emergency Banking Bill, on March 12, FDR announced the soundest banks would reopen. On March 13, deposits at the reopened banks exceeded withdrawals. "Capitalism" was saved.

Any parallels with the current situation?

2008 Nov 25 01:43 AM

[MiddleOfRoader:]

PS After crashing 86% from 1929 peak to 1932, the Dow doubled from 1933 to 1937. So today's investors still in the game might get "lucky". I'm not sure about everyone else.

2008 Nov 25 01:55 AM

[Moon Kil Woong:]

Short the 8,500 then buy close to or below 8,000 in hopes of more silly government lottery giveaways. It has been the only game in town for arbitrators, hedge funds, and bankers. Why should they get all the fun cleaning you out of your money. I guess they hope to make enough to cover their losses when the market goes down to 6,000.

2008 Nov 25 03:39 AM