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Yeah, who are they kidding? Everyone’s upset by this rush to bail out every crummy company. And, the amounts of money and stimulus are really overwhelming. Just when you think there isn’t any cash left in the vault, up pop more proposals to spend some more.

The Far Side has it right.



Some were wondering why we’re carrying so much cash. It's days like the last two that serve to remind us how lethal these markets can be. Oversold bear market rallies are usually the most dramatic and the past day [plus the last hour on Friday] reminds us why we’re parked on the sidelines. It’s too soon to be long and still too oversold to be short. Eventually the time to invest will present itself if we remain patient and disciplined.

Let’s see who gets bailed out next.

Have a pleasant evening.

Disclaimer: The ETF Digest has no positions.

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This article has 15 comments:

  •  
    Good overview of the situation. Thanks! Keep it up!
    2008 Nov 24 09:10 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    I am not sure why you are worried about inflation now. I think it is obvious the problem on the horizon is deflation. The only way to defeat it is by inflating the economy. I am not in favor of how the government is handling our economic problems, but i think inflating the economy by spending money is the only way to combat deflation.
    2008 Nov 24 09:30 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    its all still better than 10 billion a month for a war. Hey at least were using it on our turf instead of a group that wants us gone.
    2008 Nov 24 09:37 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Just a few comments and suggestions for improvement....

    (1) It would help to have fewer charts and more comment on how they speak with one voice (or do NOT, as the case may be. Brevity is the soul of analysis....

    (2) I notice you have overlooked currencies in this blast of charts. UUP and FXE would be helpful.

    rock on.
    2008 Nov 24 11:47 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    good analysis, regardless of the remarks of the closet wannabee ^...

    are the lows in? maybe... but to put in a bottom off such unbelievably negative news is pretty hard to see happening, not with huge redemptions/selling continuing until the end of the year, so lets see how they do on a retest...

    so C may not completely collapse, unlike BSC, CFC, FNM, FRE, WB, WM, GM, F, etc etc, lets rally!
    but what about BAC, JPM (seriously, looks ready to head lower to me), GS, MS, etc!!

    2008 Nov 24 11:55 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    The definition of inflation is an increase in the money supply. If you don't think the TRILLION$ of new dollars committed to the bailout so far, with more to come isn't going to cause Hyper Infaltion in the next 18-24 months--then you live in fantasy land. Read the latest from Bloomberg on the bailout. Hope you own gold and silver, you'll need it.


    On Nov 24 09:30 PM gman199 wrote:

    > I am not sure why you are worried about inflation now. I think it
    > is obvious the problem on the horizon is deflation. The only way
    > to defeat it is by inflating the economy. I am not in favor of how
    > the government is handling our economic problems, but i think inflating
    > the economy by spending money is the only way to combat deflation.
    2008 Nov 25 12:06 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    With 439 comments under your belt, it's time for the big hook to grab you off your little bully pulpit. What a moron and a jerk.


    On Nov 24 09:07 PM Georealist wrote:

    > A useless series of scribbles..charts. No analysis. No courage. No
    > nothing. You also look like your posing for a San Francisco Gay Pride
    > Day who want's me? portrait.....
    2008 Nov 25 12:37 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    David, I like the minimized amount of personal opinion, all successful traders need to make their own decisions based on the info available, not what 99% of the talking heads try to force down our throats. Keep up the good work
    2008 Nov 25 01:52 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    David,
    I agree with your comments regarding the Vix- considering that everyone was looking for a bottom signal when it hit forty, how good is it if it touches 90? Having said that, I would have to say it is looking toppy- it even formed a double top last week. Of course I would never base my trading decisions solely on this one indicator.
    2008 Nov 25 05:57 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    David:
    I like the way you have been doing. It is instant analysis (with years of experience and insight behind it) of what each chart presents. I am not interested in having educational blurbs in here except for some cryptic mentions of the backgrounds once in a while when necessary. Keep up the good work.
    I got the sense that investors large and small are quite angry about all these bailouts and how all these politicians, both outgoing and incoming, are handling the current financial crisis, though not at the boiling point yet.
    2008 Nov 25 08:24 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Lows aren't in until Case-Shiller turns up again, meaning the toxic asset write-downs are over - let's see today's report, and whether the new regime has a practical fix for mortgage defaults. Deflation can and will be defeated by printing money. Agree with DF on holding lots of cash but can't resist a little gold a little TIPS, and stuffing the stocking with a few double-shorts as they go on a pre-holiday sale. Let's be thankful and raise a Thursday glass to the new ETFs, arriving just in time for this mess. Can't think what I'd have done even two years ago.
    2008 Nov 25 08:38 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Gorealist: GoSeeAShrink.


    On Nov 25 12:37 AM User 306248 wrote:

    > With 439 comments under your belt, it's time for the big hook to
    > grab you off your little bully pulpit. What a moron and a jerk.
    >
    2008 Nov 25 12:07 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Fry is nowa broken record on the equity markets, letting his cash position turn him inflexibly bearish. He missed the bottom and mistakenly downplays Marty Zweig's research which showed that if you have two 9:1 up volume/down volume days within a 30 day period, you have very high odds of a major stock market bottom.
    We have now had 3 such days: 10/28, 11/13 and 11/24.
    Fry is getting sloppy and losing his objectivity.
    2008 Nov 25 03:37 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    The rules changed with the elimination of the Uptick rule. Research for your volume up/down should be tempered. Sorry, Marty Zweig and cma cma. The magnitude of the Up/Down ratios have proliferated and are a lot easier to achieve especially with the light volume in a holiday week. Only time will tell if consecutive Up/Down ratios prove to be more significant in the future. However, this is just another short-term bear market rally. Jump in sucker!
    2008 Nov 28 11:30 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Great charts, great insight to markets now, and possible futures.
    2008 Nov 29 04:18 AM | Link | Reply