September Case-Shiller Housing Analysis 4 comments
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The S&P/Case-Shiller median home price numbers for September were released today, and below we highlight some key stats from the report. In the first chart below, we highlight the percentage decline from each city's respective peak.
As shown, Phoenix has seen the biggest declines with a fall of 39%. Las Vegas is not far behind Phoenix at -38%, and Miami, San Diego, San Francisco, and Los Angeles have all seen declines of 30% or more as well. Dallas and Charlotte have held up by far the best with declines of just 4% from their peaks.
click to enlarge
All cities saw month-over-month and year-over-year declines in September. San Francisco and Phoenix saw the biggest month-over-month declines while Cleveland held up the best. The Composite 10-city and 20-city indices saw month-over-month declines of 1.84% and 1.77% respectively. As the data shows, things didn't get any better in September, and they've more than likely gotten worse in October and November.
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This article has 4 comments:
Only when the acceleration in price declines fades away, house declines are halfway.
It is very simple, in math this is known as a 'logistic curve', strangely enough no economist tells this simple to understand fact.
Remark: There can be valid reasons house price decline will not follow logistic decline, if for example strong inflation or deflation sets in things will be different.
Also when wages decline it will not be logistic but even worse.
Yet as a rule of thumb, we have to wait until year on year price declines stabilize and then we can say 'probably we are halfway now'.
repeating published statistics doesnt qualify you as an expert either.
Lets see some REAL analysis, lets earn our management fee for a change.