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Over the years, I have seen many ideas brought to the table regarding satellite radio. Some are business friendly, others are consumer friendly. One idea that has been bandied about a few times over is the idea of having national sponsors for channels.

The concept seems sound, but there are many variables to consider. Would a channel named Pepsi (PEP) infringe on the consumer perception that satellite radio is commercial free? Technically, station bumpers (the voice-over that tells you that you are listening to Sirius XM (SIRI)) and DJ chatter involving information about the BEST OF service, the family plan, etc. are not considered commercials, but do too much of this, and consumers may feel that the promise of commercial free is not being met.

For many, and in particular the investors, the idea of channel sponsorship is not terribly infringing. Some say that the “ad” can simply be displayed on the screen, rather than spoken. There has to be some value in this concept, right?

While I have not seen the music channels employ some of the philosophies, I have seen an entire hour of a Stern replay with an ad on my Stiletto. But there are 69 channels of music that could have a sponsor. Why not do it?

The answer may be as simple as supply and demand. There is an abundant supply of ad space, and demand is on the downside. Advertisers across the media spectrum are cutting back on expenses, and this would also impact satellite radio. Sirius XM still has ad space available on non-music channels. How prudent would it be to implement station sponsorships when there is still advertising real estate elsewhere within the service?

Another issue may be that a channel sponsor would want a certain level of control. Pepsi has had their issues using certain singers in their ads. In fact, they have suffered boycotts. What if Pepsi demanded certain language standards? What if they did not want to allow certain artists or songs to be on a channel they are sponsoring?

Consumer backlash may be another reason the company has not taken this step. With the recent channel shuffle, there were numerouscomplaints. Even with the existence of a similar channel, people were irked at the loss of their favorite. We already see the four Clear Channel (CCO) stations on the XM dial relegated to second class citizen status because they have commercials. Would sponsored channels suffer the same fate? Commercial free music is one of the sole differentiators between terrestrial radio and satellite. if you remove that separation, people may begin to wonder why they need satellite radio.

All of that being said, if the dollars are right, this is an option that the company needs to consider. A lot of careful consideration needs to go into the process though. While every million dollars counts, the benefit vs. the backlash must be weighed.

Should the company explore the idea of sponsored channels? Sure. They already have over the years. XM’s original business model involved commercials. Their initial sales pitch to OEMs was that they would share a bigger piece of the subscription revenue pie than Sirius because they would make up the difference in ad dollars. The ad dollars never rolled in, and ultimately, XM switched to a commercial free format. It could be argued that there was not the critical mass of subscribers at that point that exists today, and likely that thought needs consideration, but is now the time to make the move?

Some feel that with the current situation, the company needs to make bold moves. Still others feel that the merger was too bold a move, and there has been enough change. Early on, Mel Karmazin wanted advertising to make up 10% of revenue. Thus far, the company has never reached that goal. In the current economic conditions, and with ad sales down across the media landscape, perhaps now is not the time to dilute the market further.

The national sponsorship idea has merit, but implementation of it does carry risks. Without having the ability to see the sales stats, it is hard for any investor to grasp the benefit vs. the impact, but rest assured, this concept has been on the radar screen for quite some time. While we may not know the exact reason it has not been done, we can can put forth some educated guesses.

At this point I feel there is plenty of ad space to sell on Sirius XM without impacting the music channels. Only after all of those ad slots are performing as needed should the advertising supply pool be increased. That’s my opinion on the matter. What is yours?

Position: Long Sirius XM

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This article has 92 comments:

  •  
    My opinion on this is the stock is .14 cents. Thats my opinion on this.
    2008 Nov 26 07:07 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Speaking of advertising, a buddy of mine used to have a sirius sub. but has since let it expire without resubscribing. Recently he received a mailer from Sirius offering a quarterly deal. Buy one month, get two free when you sign up for quarterly billing. He said that this is the first letter he has received from Sirius since the expiration which was about a year ago. This is great news, finally Sirius is doing something tangible relative to the thousands upon thousands of deactivated units out there. I think we are in for a pleasant Q4. Has anyone else received Sirius mailers recently?
    2008 Nov 26 07:34 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    When XM had the SBUX channel, I didn't mind at all. In fact I thought projected a coffee shop kind of vibe to the music choices and I much prefer to see the name Starbucks on my dash over commercial interruptions. If it helps to keep the sat radios afloat, I say, "I want my Horizon Blue Cross Death Metal station."
    2008 Nov 26 08:09 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    That ad you saw on the Stern channel for an hour was a mistake. The Sirius frequently forgets to update the display, whether through human or technical error.
    2008 Nov 26 09:15 AM | Link | Reply
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    I am not opposed to ads as long as their done with a properly set schedule. You manage the entire content of each station, so it shouldnt be hard to schedule what times ads run on particular channels. If they all run whenever and everytime I flip the station I hit another ad, then there is no sense in my paying for Sirius. If you have it running on 80's on 8 at 7:50, then ads shouldnt run on similiar channes at 7:50. That way its not just a plethora of ad flipping.
    2008 Nov 26 09:48 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    I am a subscriber and stock owner. While I certainly want to see the stock move positive, I will drop my subscription in a heartbeat if I have to listen to a single commercial.

    I see enough commercial crap all around me, can't even tell what city a race or game is played in anymore. I'd love to know how many dollars I spend a day go to feed the commercial industry.
    2008 Nov 26 10:08 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Commercials are the ONLY hope for Sirius to survive. Suscribers are not going to generate enough money to pay the bills. Besides, they already have commercials on the talk stations. I'd rather have commercials, then the company go Bankrupt which may happen in a few months, and have nothing.
    2008 Nov 26 10:15 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Scot here. I do agree that advertising is needed for SiriusXM to survive. And for subscribers who begin to hear advertising, they at first will be ticked off. So what. After time, they'll absorb it, and that will be the end of the debate. For proof of that, look at Wal Mart. When they started out, they promoted that all their products were "American made." But as time went on, and much to the dismay of american consumers and negative publicity, american made products slowly shrank from their shelves to make room for products made in China. And in the same vein, this holds true for many cable television stations; many started out commercial free, where today, advertising is part of the format. Free lunch passes are a relic of the past: To play, you gotta pay....

    Scot's Slant

    And there is one more thing: It can probably be safely assumed that SiriusXM already has the road map in place where bit by bit, they'll slide a little advertising in here, and a little over there....
    2008 Nov 26 10:17 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    The ONLY type of ad that would be feasible on a music channel is a 5 second spot per hour that would go something like this ...... " Your listening to Sirius / XM channel 101 ...... Thank you Pepsi for sponsoring the Led Zeppelin channel " ...... and then you'd better play some damn music real quick !!!!!!!!!! .........or else you are going to piss a lot of people off ......but 5 seconds per hour 24/7 on a hundred channels would be worth some badly needed revenue ......... and I think you could get some buyers on that
    2008 Nov 26 10:35 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    schellem - I agree , I am so sick of being solicited everywhere I go ...... we are bombarded with commercials constantly ......... Hell I'm looking at 10 ads right now as I type !!!!!!! ...... and i can't stand it when some ad pops up on my homepages ........... It's like , " Leave me alone , I don't want your crappy herbal inner cleansing miracle jujamby root " !!!!!!!!!! hah aha hahahah ahahahahahahha
    2008 Nov 26 10:43 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Don't understand the crying on here. If you have Sirius there is a good chance you listen to Howard Stern. He has almost 10 minutes of ads every 50 minutes. Commercials are NEEDED for this company to survive. Put 3 minutes of commercials every 15 minutes to bring in ad revenue. AOL, Yahoo, etc.. makes its money from ads and is free. So if you can get the suscriber fee AND advertising money then maybe this company (and stock which i don't own) may survive.
    2008 Nov 26 11:37 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Would you like a little cheese with all that wine......They are trying to do things to make the stock positive and generate some cash flow. You want everything for nothing...Jay


    On Nov 26 10:08 AM schellem wrote:

    > I am a subscriber and stock owner. While I certainly want to see
    > the stock move positive, I will drop my subscription in a heartbeat
    > if I have to listen to a single commercial.
    >
    > I see enough commercial crap all around me, can't even tell what
    > city a race or game is played in anymore. I'd love to know how many
    > dollars I spend a day go to feed the commercial industry.
    2008 Nov 26 12:05 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    I wholeheartedly agree! I want to hear my music, and just my music. I want to see the name of the band & song, and could care less what the station is called. If it brings in $, then I'm all for it, as long as it doesn't affect the reason I pay for the service.




    On Nov 26 08:09 AM Chalupacabra wrote:

    > When XM had the SBUX channel, I didn't mind at all. In fact I thought
    > projected a coffee shop kind of vibe to the music choices and I much
    > prefer to see the name Starbucks on my dash over commercial interruptions.
    > If it helps to keep the sat radios afloat, I say, "I want my Horizon
    > Blue Cross Death Metal station."
    2008 Nov 26 12:08 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Hey, look at cable or any other subscription service (even a magazine, a seemingly dying medium). What do you see? Commercials. sirius has tried to reinvent the wheel and failed, so sirius management should pull their heads out of their asses and emulate what similar companies are doing well. burning billions of dollars in cash is not good business
    2008 Nov 26 12:32 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    sick of being solicited... you make me sick...go move to a communist country
    2008 Nov 26 12:34 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Tyler, THANKS for opening this important discussion. I hope people remember these are not commercials per say. They could be done in a fluid like way so not to interupt the flow of programming content. I would hope channels would not have to branded w/a certain sponsor like the "Pepsi Channel". But sponsorship done just on an somewhat random hourly basis. This concept could appeal to certain National Sponsors in a way that a 30 second commercial does not. They would get a larger audiance spectrum for the buck @ a far less expense. During these tough economic times w/ advertising budgets being cut this could actually be a great opportunity to get the National Sponsors on board. Even Sirius Xm is reported to be turning to radio ads OVER TV to get their message out! Maybe they should look @ their own decision on how to spend their advertising dollars. I think they have a money tree growing in their own back yard in downtown NYC but are afraid to pick the fruit, even though the yield coudl be HUNDREDS of MILLIONS of DOLLARS of NEW ADDED REVENUE! Thanks Again.
    2008 Nov 26 12:35 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Bla Bla Bla Bla Just put something or some ad's so we can start paying the debt. For one I do not think government would help us bail out and bankruptcy would be horrible for the whole company and investors. I know Sirius XM are in mixing stage to getting started but they need to do something. The need to do something for the short term right now to get the ball rolling. I know you can not blame all in economy, when company goes out of business then what. So my point again they need to do something, something right now to get some kind of stability and draw in more investor. I don't think some kind of advertising is wrong idea, as long as it helps the company.
    2008 Nov 26 01:06 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    I am a long time Sirius subscriber, listen mostly in the car. At home, I listen to the local (non-commercial) college station or the local NPR outlet. As to the latter, I donate but resent the non-commercial commercials and periodic fund raisers. I am willing to pay on a subscription basis for the music I like without commercials. Apparently Sirius XM, which attracts more comment, some of it rabid, than almost any other topic on this site is having a hard time integrating its programming and getting a universal receiver out. As for the stock, I bailed on it long ago. I always understood it was speculative and that both Sirius and XM would burn through a lot of cash until the startup infrastructure was paid off. Over the long run, their competition may be from internet radio, not terrestial. Terrestial radio is doomed and deserves its eventual collapse.
    2008 Nov 26 01:22 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    We are talking about the MUSIC channels here , and no one is " crying " ..... but if Siri puts 10 minutes of commercials every 50 minutes as they do on Howard ...... Subs will bail , and that is what schellem is indicating .......... If subs bail , you can bet your ass we will ALL be crying ............ Tyler's article is about the balance between generating revenue without pissing off a ton of subs ......... and it CAN be done , but not at any 10 minutes for every 50 of programming ........... might as well listen to FM if you have that garbage


    On Nov 26 11:37 AM SHARKATT11 wrote:

    > Don't understand the crying on here. If you have Sirius there is
    > a good chance you listen to Howard Stern. He has almost 10 minutes
    > of ads every 50 minutes. Commercials are NEEDED for this company
    > to survive. Put 3 minutes of commercials every 15 minutes to bring
    > in ad revenue. AOL, Yahoo, etc.. makes its money from ads and is
    > free. So if you can get the suscriber fee AND advertising money then
    > maybe this company (and stock which i don't own) may survive.
    2008 Nov 26 01:38 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    I make you sick because I am sick of being solicited and bombarded with commercials every frickin' where I go , and telemarketers call me constantly on the phone ( oh yes I am on the no call list ) , and you tell me to move to a communist country ????? Which is the patented response most dimwits come up with .......... Bite me ........Oh , and P.S. , Advertisements are quite common in communist countries , so save your " Love it or Leave it " BS for someone else .............. I try not to be crappy on this board , but YOU started it


    On Nov 26 12:34 PM Konsta wrote:

    > sick of being solicited... you make me sick...go move to a communist
    > country
    2008 Nov 26 01:55 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Concerning commercials on radio ........ I think people can tolerate some advertisements , no doubt , but THE REASON people are sick of AM / FM , is because the commercials are relentless ....... I bet FM has 30 minutes every hour of either ads or station identification , or slot promo's ...... and most of it is noisy and idiotic adolescent BS garbage

    I think about 5 minutes per hour is the ceiling of tolerance subs will be willing to listen to on a pay radio ........ and even that is shaky ground ..... but I think Siri could manage a spot or two for some revenue without much collateral damage ........
    2008 Nov 26 02:06 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Shure46 & schellum

    I am with you both. I have 4 subscriptions and a boat load of shares right now...... put commercials on my music and I am gone, gone, gone.......
    Fill the commercial slots on News, Talk, and Entertainment. Ruin the music content and the company is done....... My only concern with allowing even 5 seconds per hour is once you give 'em an inch, they'll screw with the whole thing.
    2008 Nov 26 02:46 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Killer - Tell the dog Happy Thanksgiving, but no turkey for him Its not good for dogs to eat turkey and we need him strong as the holiday run starts Friday morning.
    2008 Nov 26 03:46 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    I would like to know why Sirius volume jumped over 100% from norm that last few hours yesterday. Did someone buy a whole bunch of shares or sold (insider trading) looks to be a good bet here.

    Watch this stock very closely because this kind of volume jump can mean something very bad on the horizon or could be good.

    It's just very suspicious and volume jumps like this should always be investigated by the SEC.

    Jay
    2008 Nov 26 04:05 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    15 Stocks I’m Looking At Short Selling, Potentially, Only Potentially
    Posted by Timothy Sykes on Wed 26th of Nov, 2008 11:24:30 AM


    Sent to TIMalert subscribers early this morning:

    Again a ton of potential shorts today, setups are ripe heading into the holidays, a time known for beginner day traders to try their luck, now people are desperate for fast cash so it’s gonna be easy pickings as these fools actually believe message board hype and buy into surging Penny Stocks …hopefully it happens again this year as it’s fun to take $ from dumb people:

    BIDZ is a double off its $2ish lows, classic dead cat ounce, will look for signs of reversal to possibly short

    RDNT is also nearly a double off its lows

    CSUN reported bad earnings, but was probly priced in considering the stock jumped big, no w a double off its lows in just 3 days…I don’t like earnings plays, but I’m watching.

    JRCC is also a double off its lows, just a stock that’s gotten wrecked, no other reason, potential short.

    SRI was a great short for a 15% gain, $1,700 profit, detailed post coming, now the stock is dead to me.
    2008 Nov 26 05:03 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    That's not an opinion, that was a fact....heheheh


    On Nov 26 07:07 AM relmor wrote:

    > My opinion on this is the stock is .14 cents. Thats my opinion on
    > this.
    2008 Nov 26 05:08 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Magnum...

    Unless your Mr. Tim is an institutional trader, he'll not be shorting any of these stocks because no trader otherwise, is marginable under $5. Meaning no broker will be borrowing him any shares. Sorry to say.
    2008 Nov 26 05:20 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Again on National Sponsorship, The sponsors would be identified in a passing fluid manor. Each recognition would be from 5 to 8 SECONDS and maybe @ 6 times an hour. That would add up to 30 to 50 SECONDS an hour. I really find it hard to believe that would cause any real anguish to subscribers. I'm a Sixty's on 6 fan and not crazy about about the new Wolfman format. His DJ style takes minutes away from music content. I'll take a few seconds of sponsor identification over an over talkative DJ. Especially if it saves Sirius Xm.
    2008 Nov 26 07:22 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Someone on the inside sold all their shares yesterday. The Volume was over 100,000,000, more than twice the normal volume. This volume switch happened in the last few hours of trading. This massive selling came just before S&P downgrade Sirius today. Someone's extremely lucky or they have inside information. I feel the latter. Watch out and don't lose all your'e money. "Iinsider traiding" is a viable intent here on future bad news. I hope the SEC is investigating this.

    Jay
    2008 Nov 26 07:40 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    GetSiri.............I'... gonna have to give the Dog a few scraps.............. he growled at me when I read him your post. Let's hope you're right about friday! Have a great Thanksgiving Holiday.... will see you back here on the front on friday. your friend, .. killer.
    2008 Nov 26 08:04 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    SHARKAT11...... I don't listen to Howard or any sports.....I bought a Sirius radio/subscription for one thing.....COMMERCIAL FREE LISTENING. I recently downgraded my subscription to music only

    If I have to listen commercials I'd much rather listen to my local commercials than nationwide ones. As it is the only thing I do miss about listening to local terrestrial's is the local event commercials...bands playing, festivities etc.

    2008 Nov 26 09:22 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Mr Stupid

    There aren't any SEC filings to support your claim. It could have been end of the month selling at close of day by an institution closed on Friday. The S&P downgrade on Credit is long over due, given the company's silence on their progress of refinancing and the existing credit crisis.
    2008 Nov 26 09:56 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Tax loss selling and then repurchase just before end of the year to take care of wash sale rules is just as viable an explanation for large holding sales yesterday. The volume at the end of the day was over 20M shares in the last minute of trading, not hours.
    2008 Nov 26 10:00 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    I don't see a problem with record labels using commercial slots on the music channels to advertise new bands, or live nation advertising a concert that may show up in your local area. The purpose of satellite radio was to expand and promote music content and variety.That way we wouldn't hear the same blah blah all the time.

    I defenitely wouldn't want commercials on any other subject unless it delt with music.

    If satellite radio has to pay to play music the record labels should be supporting satellite radio to pay for advertising. Or in general, satellite radio should just not have to pay for music rights to give up these advertising slots to music companies.
    2008 Nov 26 11:15 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Cos - Yes you are right about commercials ....... once the foot is in the door , we know it will go just like SAT TV ......... more commercials than regular TV !!!!!!!! ........ and yes my wishful perfect world scenario of just a 30 second promo spot per hour would surely "evolve" over time into 10 minutes of heavy metal skateboard power caffiene meth drink ads in no time ......... so you are definately right ....... we should probably not even open THAT door ......... and you know , having some music play without any commercials is a very valuable commodity ............. Two things Siri has going ......commercial free music , and uncensored talk ..
    2008 Nov 27 12:41 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    as far as not being able to short stocks under 5$, not necessarily so, e-trade lets you short stocks over 3$ , so it depends on the brokerage. as far as the person who is upset with the "move to a communist country" comment, this company needs to come up with a VIABLE business model iinstead of f--king around like they have been, and commericals are such a viable option that works for everyone else. so I say, you tried, you failed, and now try something that your peers do that actually works.
    also go beyond radio, radio is almost dead, i.e. expand into tv, gps and internet access inside vehicles

    disclosure: i hold a small position in sirius at a very low price, it's a speculative stock
    2008 Nov 27 01:42 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    I played the .15 cent to .17 cent range again, sold for .02 cent profit. Ill take it with this action lately. Will rebuy one week before vote. This stock is dead unless news for a while. Get ready for a down DOW next week. It could be ugly. Raise capital now till Dec. 15, then be all in till March area. This is a cyclical long term trade that should play out. Wouldnt be in ANY stock come April. I wouldnt hold anything paper then.
    2008 Nov 27 10:10 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Konsta - I agree with you 100% ...... the problem is that on the music channels , subs will be very intolerant for commercials ........ 2 things satrad subs pay for ........ commercial free music , and uncensored content ...... without those , Siri is just FM .......... But hell yes , Siri definately needs to get there heads out of their A's and generate more revenue ......... You are congratulated for being in shallow , and at a low price ....... I was one of those idiots that bought into the product / hype , and I am holding 20,000 shares at 3 bucks .......... No silver linings for me ........ Luckily , I have made a few other , better investments in companies that make money , so all is not lost ........ but damn it sure stings a bit ......... and just tit for tat on the insults , nothing personal , and since I was born and raised here , hell I might as well stay ....... I can't even speak Spanish , much less Russian


    On Nov 27 01:42 AM Konsta wrote:

    > as far as not being able to short stocks under 5$, not necessarily
    > so, e-trade lets you short stocks over 3$ , so it depends on the
    > brokerage. as far as the person who is upset with the "move to a
    > communist country" comment, this company needs to come up with a
    > VIABLE business model iinstead of f--king around like they have been,
    > and commericals are such a viable option that works for everyone
    > else. so I say, you tried, you failed, and now try something that
    > your peers do that actually works.
    > also go beyond radio, radio is almost dead, i.e. expand into tv,
    > gps and internet access inside vehicles
    >
    > disclosure: i hold a small position in sirius at a very low price,
    > it's a speculative stock
    2008 Nov 27 12:08 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    relmor - yes this market will be full of bear rallies for a while ....... good time to make a few bucks , but I personally am going to try my best to be disciplined and buy only on damn dirt lows ....... This market has the potential for crash and burn at any given time for the next year ....... I am going to buy PDC and hold for summer's 150 a barrel oil ........ easy double , maybe more ........ and I think a safe bet ........ helluva lot better than this mess ........... Man GM was a smokin' buy 3 days ago ...... but hell I am a little gunshy with risk nowdays !!!!!!! Wonder why ....... Thanks for the education SIRI !!!!!!!
    2008 Nov 27 12:18 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    SIRIUS is heavily tied into the fortunes of the American car industry. But SIRIUS needs to be available to listeners on planes or even private watercraft. It needs to be available to gym members on treadmills and eliptical bikes. It needs to be an option with major cellphone carriers. It needs to be a faceplate that is embedded as a touchscreen option on a new fridge in the kitchen. These execs haven't had a new idea in years!
    2008 Nov 27 02:26 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    SIRIUS is heavily tied into the fortunes of the American car industry. But SIRIUS needs to be available to listeners on planes or even private watercraft. It needs to be available to gym members on treadmills and eliptical bikes. It needs to be an option with major cellphone carriers. It needs to be a faceplate that is embedded as a touchscreen option on a new fridge in the kitchen. These execs haven't had a new idea in years!
    2008 Nov 27 02:29 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Most of us responding seem to be Sirius Xm fans and want to see the company survive. If a passing mention of the hours sponsor will save the company then it should be considered. The numbers are staggering! If Sirius only charged $5,000 per hour (hour includes ALL channels NOT presently airing commercials) then X's that by 24 hours a day, now X's that by 365 days per year. You get a total of NEW revenue of over $420,000,000 per year! A bargain for the sponsor, a boon for Sirius Xm and the only sacrafice your asking of the listener is to hear an 8 second blurb about 6 times an hour. That's less that 1 minute in a 60 minute span. If this turns Sirius Xm around and as subscriberships grew then the $5000 hourly fee would grow too. Leaving Sirus Xm with a new problem of how much should we REDUCE the subcription price. Then you add even more subscribers, know the snowball is rolling downhill and getting bigger and bigger w/o even being pushed! GUESS WHAT, EVERYBODY WINS! While most Sirius Xm bloggers are complaining about the stock price, here is a very possible solution for all parties involved. Please e-mail Sirius Xm and let them know you support "THE NATIONAL SPONSORSHIP PROGRAM" E-MAIL: SIRIUS.COM then scroll down & click on INVESTOR RELATIONS and leave them a message.
    2008 Nov 27 10:15 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    what are you talking about? radio isn't dead. did you simply make that up??
    ummmmmmmmmmm......viab... business model? like getting out of the RADIO business?? thank GOD you are not running the company. what would those 19mil subscribers do?? lololololol


    On Nov 27 01:42 AM Konsta wrote:

    > as far as not being able to short stocks under 5$, not necessarily
    > so, e-trade lets you short stocks over 3$ , so it depends on the
    > brokerage. as far as the person who is upset with the "move to a
    > communist country" comment, this company needs to come up with a
    > VIABLE business model iinstead of f--king around like they have been,
    > and commericals are such a viable option that works for everyone
    > else. so I say, you tried, you failed, and now try something that
    > your peers do that actually works.
    > also go beyond radio, radio is almost dead, i.e. expand into tv,
    > gps and internet access inside vehicles
    >
    > disclosure: i hold a small position in sirius at a very low price,
    > it's a speculative stock
    2008 Nov 28 12:54 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Neal ......

    As Shure46 above has said and I agree is this Company's product is the Very Best, Pure, Commercial Free Music Content and Uncensored Talk and Music. As an investor I want to make money on my investment, but I do not want the Company to Compromise the Quality of the Product to achieve this goal. It is, after all, what distinguishes them from all the rest.

    Your NATIONAL SPONSORSHIP PROGRAM is available now on all of the stations that currently run commercials, so why not fill those slots first, and stop trying to Diminish The Product of this company by diluting it with this lame sponsorship program. After Terrestrial Radio buys Sirius XM and takes them private, you can try your pitch with them.

    Your program idea will eventually cost the company its Content-Is-King crown, because once money can be raised in this manner, they will simply increase the amount of commercial exposure that subscribers will have to put up with. Content is more than just genre diversity and depth, it is also the manner of delivery and focus. Without commercials, music listeners are given a unique opportunity to escape all the BS being thrown at them by all of the media options in their life. Currently this is, other than recording your own music which is time consuming, the only Oasis of Media available, and subscribers have been willing to pay for it. This sponsorship program will cost the company an immediate reduction in subscriber numbers, it will definitely increase churn and hurt the company's ability to bring in new subs in this economy. Your numbers are flawed in that your assumptions are for 24/7 participation by sponsors on all music channels. This plan will devastate this company not Save it. IMHO.
    2008 Nov 28 10:05 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    SIRI Posters...

    There are many here who feel the need to bash some of us who regularly post here, for leading the poor people astray, influencing people to take more losses, etc....oh yeah...and working for the company...

    A good report by Faber hit the air this morning about the RADIO SECTOR. That's right the WHOLE SECTOR. It's depressed folks--and worse for you if you have debt. Some radio companies are FCF and still down significantly. It's not just SIRI. If you want to actually research something for a change...check out these:

    CDL - .18 (down from 2.85 52 wk high)
    CJR - 10.85 (down from 25)
    CMLS - .95 (down from 9.22)
    EMMS - .30 (down from 4.74)
    CXR - 5.55 (down from 13.09)
    BBGI - .85 (down from 9.09)
    RC - 5.55 (down from 14.56)

    So you see. In reality. Those in this unlucky space this particular year not only ran into a company buzz saw in SIRI, but also a sector saw as well. Decimated. So anyone here who wants to criticize some of us for trying to make sense of it, I suggest you do some research and see that it's not just a SIRI story at all. But then I have to tell you this, so what hope is there for you?
    2008 Nov 28 10:34 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    cos1000...

    I see today's move as tied to the coming Autos squeeze this week...I still believe, with 270M short as of 11/14, there is potential here for some significant moves both related to Autos loan, meeting, and just locking in profits. 270M is the 3rd highest all year and I think is compounded by many who have been short much of the year and will be looking before EOY to settle up for yearly income statements...
    2008 Nov 28 10:41 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    cos1000...

    Been thinking about strategy a little, and I think I'm going to leave half of my .20's buy in as a just in case to account for squeeze magnitudes. I mean, we just don't know when this thing is going to take off but it could happen fast. Think I'll take out 1/2 on this move up related to Autos, then redirect that money and some new cash for the pull back into the teens or lower pre meeting. That way, I'll be covered with something in case I miss a day where it just takes off without me. I'm starting to think, at this time, at these levels, it's prudent to keep something in at all times...
    2008 Nov 28 10:49 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    One thing I will add about the commercials that do exist on channels like Howard 101, they are crap. Male enhancement, online dating for people having an affair, etc etc. Howard, BTLS, Ferrell all have millions of listeners. If you have to have commericial on talk channels, which you do because talent needs a break, then go out and get real sponsers.
    2008 Nov 28 10:53 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Cos1000, Thanks for the feedback.1st & foremost that's what Im hoping for is to bring this out for discussion. I can understand your'e concerns. Sirius Xm's resistance on National Sponsorship, already spreaks volumes to your concerns, I believe their in your camp. I love my Sat. radio and am a stockholder also. What I see here is the perfect storm and this storm was not predicted by the weatherman. So we have a high winds, hail & flooding. Do we watch the ship sink and everyone goes down w/ the ship? Of course not. What I'm proposing is a compromise to save the company. I'm not for "going to a commercial", my scenerio is almost painless. A DJ or Annoucement in a passing fluid way mentioning who the hour's sponsor is for all of 8 seconds then going on with the next song without skipping a beat. Now you make a very valid point on my numbers on th added revenue. Yes, @ 1st your not going to fill all hourly slots 24/7. But keep in mind my assumption of charging $5000 per hour is more than a bargain if you went by a CPM format. Keep in mind that hour covers All CHANNELS that are nto currently airing commercials. So for a company to recieve real national exposure that number very low. This is one of the most important assets the merger brings is that it combined all 19 million subscibers under one roof. It needs to be used to Sirius Xm's advantage. For what it co$t to pay for this merger. Yes, there would be resistance at first but once it became part of the format I think the audiances would not object. It would get Sirius Xm off life support and back out on the street healthy & growing. Like I mentioned before Sirius Xm is resistant to the idea, which shows they would not turn these blurbs into "quote" commercials. It actually could help them reduce the price of the service in the future. Last but not least, even if you cut my estimated revenues in half $210,000,000 would pay most of the interest on all of Sirius Xm's debt. All for just some blurbs. As my father-in-law use to say "I'D TRADE A WIENER FOR A HAM ANYDAY"! PS: Since Tyler's article came out on this subject Wed. the stock is on a nice rise??? Again Cos1000 thanks for your reply and I think both uf us agree that we want to see Sirius Xm succeed. Neal
    2008 Nov 28 11:08 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    GetSiri...

    I started listening to Howard back in '93 when I was living in Los Angeles. All the way back there, the advertisers were junk. I doubt he ever will attract anything more than that. His audience is just to specific for mainstream advertisers to waste money there...
    2008 Nov 28 11:11 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    I dont think its a specific audience as much as the stigma that advertisers avoid. I been listening to Stern daily for 10 years, bought SIrius specifically to listen to Stern and I am about as mainstream as it gets. But people more often than not tilt their head when I mention Howard.
    2008 Nov 28 01:43 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    GetSiri...

    Agreed...I meant mainstream in context with his material. Many mainstream folks listen to Howard but who also enjoy his darker content. That content is what keeps advertisers seeking mainstream consumers away. So though you and others of Howards following might be mainstream also, quality (or broader market) advertisers don't see you in that space because they know they will find you elsewhere where they also get more bang for their buck (roi)...

    So as said...I wouldn't be looking for quality ads in that space anytime soon...
    2008 Nov 28 02:00 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Neal

    A discussion of the revenue generated from the advertising revenue gained vs. the revenue lost from the increased churn of existing subs and the headwind that will be created in generating new subs, (a double negative impact) from commercial based music programming, perceived or actual, needs to be researched. Unintended consequences of any programming action is a very important aspect of this company's future success. Even 5 seconds of nationally sponsored programming will be Exploited by the Competition and Analyst already not in favor of the subscription business model to take the company's only true competitive advantage away. I think Sirius' Program management is already fighting an uphill PR battle in the merged content arena. Customer satisfaction MUST be their primary concern even if it takes the company into bankruptcy. This Business Model is under attack from the Perfect Storm of the Economy as you already accurately pointed out. To throw revenue from commercials into the mix would not be indefensible and further proof to the competition and nay sayers that the business model is a failure. So let the Bilge Pumps run 24/7 during the storm, and when the winds and waves subside, let the pure content product of music stand firm. JMHO
    2008 Nov 28 02:34 PM | Link | Reply
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    correction..... would be indefensible...
    2008 Nov 28 02:36 PM | Link | Reply
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    s162, relmor

    hey guys,
    relmor I was feeling like you on Wednesday about next week after looking at the charts and how the price is approaching 13 day and though I would wait until today to take advantage of a weak trading day to take it the price down. I cleared 85 % of my positions in the stock today. The technical indicators are not looking very inviting for next week on the markets in general. If I had a margin account I would short the indexes here, with pre announcements going to be ugly. As far as the Autos go, They will get their money but that presentation isn't until the week of the 8th. Next week I fear could be a week of testing recent lows in the indexes and without any real news on Sirius, we could do the same hear. Next week the shorts (bears) are back to business IMHO.
    2008 Nov 28 02:48 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    geez i hate it when it all just comes out in Gibberish.... relmor, I was feeling like you on Wednesday regarding next week's market action. After looking at the charts and observing Sirius' and the market's price points approaching the 13 DMA, I thought I would wait another day, today, to take advantage of a weak trading day, before they take the price down again next week. I cleared 85% of my Sirius XM position today at .2090 today. I will be looking to get back in before the end of the upcoming week.
    2008 Nov 28 02:57 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    cos100,
    I follow your posts as well as sl62, relmor, and anyone else who can make a sensible post, be it negative or positive. Good that you were able to get out at a point that you liked today. I've been looking for a point to get out of some of my positions as well. Today looked good, but don't you think we will get a good pop on Tuesday if the Big 3 show up in Town flying in on Ted with their best Sears suit and maybe a little more humble with a plan that makes sense?... ok, maybe just a little more humble and a good plan :-) If they came in with a good to great plan, would that buzz last through the 8th (or whenever it gets decided)? If that happened, would that be enough to get a bunch of shorts to cover (at least short term) and maybe get us up around .40 or so for a short time?

    Hope everyone is enjoying their leftovers. Can't believe I read that some of you fellas ventured in to Walmart today. What are you nuts? We had people camped out in front of the Best Buy since 9pm last night... Some in line to save 50 bucks on that "must have" item.. Gotta love it.

    On Nov 28 02:57 PM cos1000 wrote:

    > geez i hate it when it all just comes out in Gibberish.... relmor,
    > I was feeling like you on Wednesday regarding next week's market
    > action. After looking at the charts and observing Sirius' and the
    > market's price points approaching the 13 DMA, I thought I would wait
    > another day, today, to take advantage of a weak trading day, before
    > they take the price down again next week. I cleared 85% of my Sirius
    > XM position today at .2090 today. I will be looking to get back in
    > before the end of the upcoming week.
    2008 Nov 28 03:39 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    cygnus...

    Appreciate your comments. The lines are what I personally avoid but love to see the enthusiasm. Every since my - Hurry Up and Wait - days of the Air Force as a young recruit, lines have had a different meaning for me.... Any Veterans out there know what I'm talking about. The lines then didn't have the rewards back then that these hopefuls have today.

    I agree and have been a proponent of News induced rallies for this stock, but just feel that their is way to much Hype in the market in general that has created a short term overbought situation. With the Shorts still hovering as always, and taking a break this week to enjoy the Holiday and let the Market recover, I just feel that their coming back in force in the early to middle part of the week. A lot of opposition will be very vocal about the auto bail out and in the end the money will be given. IMHO. This just becomes an opportunity for the shorts to make money taking it down and then rebounding on a positive decision. The auto stock are already ahead of themselves in price and will suffer early also. Well that's my take and now we will all have to see how it unfolds. I think that s162's strategy of moving in halves is a good one. I am just trying to recover more in less time.

    My strategy may be foolish, but look where the SP is while I am employing it. I still believe that before the meeting and with the positive news on the autos the stock will move off and out of this range until after the meeting. The low .40's are possible, and I am hoping that it goes their. I just think it will go down before it gets there. If on Monday it closes over .26, then I probably was wrong and I have a longer wait before I get back in.
    2008 Nov 28 04:12 PM | Link | Reply
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    Cos1000.............. congrats on your sell of siri shares, my lowest buy was at .25, so couldn't take advantage of any of this uptick. Hope you made some nice$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$. killer.
    2008 Nov 28 04:17 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Cos1000, I would think the increased bottom line would cause wallstreet as a whole to look @ the sponsorship package as a big positive to make the Sat. model more viable. The merger process took so long that its damage seems to have put them in a 40 foot hole and is their rope long enough to pull them out? With refinancing the upcoming debt even more analysts are painting a bleak picture and lowering their ratings. I think Sirius should float the idea thru another source and get the feedback. The math looks good and my gut tells me it would have a minimal negative effect on the subs. You seem to be confident that they will weather the storm. I wish the analyst felt the same as you.
    2008 Nov 28 04:20 PM | Link | Reply
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    Cos1000, Congrats on your sell. What's your take on why the Sirius Xm has gone up so much in the last few days? Do you think it will keep going up?
    2008 Nov 28 04:31 PM | Link | Reply
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    By the way the meeting I am talking about is the Annual Meeting of shareholders on 12/18, not the Autos in congress. Also the news of the autos being bailed out, although that will be good, in the end, does not change for Sirius what ails it. The lack of transparency to management's intent is the biggest roadblock to the SP. Second to that, It is the debt resolution plan, which falls back on the transparency issue. If Debt is resolved with convertible bonds and arbitrage, then investors are screwed because the Short Hedge position will be expanded beyond the already existing July 28th refi, wiping the common shareholder out, but avoiding bankruptcy for the company. For me, I am very hesitant to be optimistic on the SP for more than a week at a time at this point. To many unknowns and to many shorts in control.
    2008 Nov 28 04:32 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Actually killer....
    I averaged down to .2050 and made very little.... just wanted to come out clean. When I bought shares at .24 and .25, I hadn't thought .14 was possible. I now know it is and don't want to be in during the early part of next week. My take is more technical in nature than based on company performance or any possible news. From watching level ll trading, this week was easy action, without any real incentive to take it down. The charts and level ll are being interpreted by me to mean the shorts took a break and welcome the stock going up a bit. I think the short side of the trades are making money on smaller moves now and the action we are seeing up or down is orderly and without any panic at all. Absent any real surprise in debt financing, the shorts will make money whenever they want. I think s162's short squeeze will only occur if the company announces bank financing without a lot of dilution for the Feb and May debt. It all boils down to what the chances of that happening are. I think they are low....
    2008 Nov 28 04:46 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    cos1000,
    My Dad was in the Air Force. Early on in SEA with S&R on HH-43s. Color blindness kept me out years ago (no tech jobs). My hat is off to all you veterans then and now.

    I wish I had had the discipline (or knowledge/experience) to get out of this stock way back when. Who, among us mere mortals, could have seen exactly how bad it would get with this stock. I had gotten burned a few years back by getting out of a stock at the bottom only to have it go back up. I swore I wouldn't do that again, so averaged down and averaged down. For a while I could keep my loss at 50%, but then these violent legs down just killed me, but continued to hold. Bought more in the 30's, mid 20's, and .15 with my next highest at .95 and then other buys higher.

    Your strategy makes the most sense, and come Monday/Tuesday, I may be kicking myself... obviously not the first time I've done that. Just seems like lately the Big 3 problems have been weighing heavily on Sirius. So, it would seem that with some good news the opposite effect should happen and possibly there would be a couple of other good follow ons. Love to get out of all my positions up to .95 and take a little breather. My only worry is the killjoy from GS chiming in after some perceived good news to bring rain to the parade. Next week is going to be fun.

    Good luck to everyone. Whatever strategy you pursue, I hope it is a winning one.


    On Nov 28 04:12 PM cos1000 wrote:

    > cygnus...
    >
    > Appreciate your comments. The lines are what I personally avoid but
    > love to see the enthusiasm. Every since my - Hurry Up and Wait -
    > days of the Air Force as a young recruit, lines have had a different
    > meaning for me.... Any Veterans out there know what I'm talking about.
    > The lines then didn't have the rewards back then that these hopefuls
    > have today.
    >
    > I agree and have been a proponent of News induced rallies for this
    > stock, but just feel that their is way to much Hype in the market
    > in general that has created a short term overbought situation. With
    > the Shorts still hovering as always, and taking a break this week
    > to enjoy the Holiday and let the Market recover, I just feel that
    > their coming back in force in the early to middle part of the week.
    > A lot of opposition will be very vocal about the auto bail out and
    > in the end the money will be given. IMHO. This just becomes an opportunity
    > for the shorts to make money taking it down and then rebounding on
    > a positive decision. The auto stock are already ahead of themselves
    > in price and will suffer early also. Well that's my take and now
    > we will all have to see how it unfolds. I think that s162's strategy
    > of moving in halves is a good one. I am just trying to recover more
    > in less time.
    >
    > My strategy may be foolish, but look where the SP is while I am employing
    > it. I still believe that before the meeting and with the positive
    > news on the autos the stock will move off and out of this range until
    > after the meeting. The low .40's are possible, and I am hoping that
    > it goes their. I just think it will go down before it gets there.
    > If on Monday it closes over .26, then I probably was wrong and I
    > have a longer wait before I get back in.
    2008 Nov 28 04:50 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Neal
    I agree that all revenue stream ideas should be run through some third party assessment of viability. You however have not given me your thoughts on how important the uniqueness of the company's product is and how you feel that it would impact their ability to bring in additional subs after running commercials on their music channels.

    On your second post, my feeling is no the stock will not keep going up in price next week, but I have been wrong many time before. I stated above why I feel this way in looking at the charts and level ll action this Holiday week.
    2008 Nov 28 05:03 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    cos1000, That's a great point. My feelings as a subscriber compared to being a stockholder is tough sometimes to seperate. The stockholder side of my brain no doubt wants to see this stock rise just about any way possible. But my subscriber, listener side of my brain does not want a bunch of static that takes away from the content. After being in my car with Sirius Xm and then driving in a car listening to FM it's not even close. That's when you relize how much your'e bombarded w/ commercials. So I totally understand the concern about commercials!!! What I'm proposing is hardly a pause in the programming. These are not considered commercials from a professional standpoint. They are sponsorships. So from my sub. side of my brain, I really would not have a problem and I would think most (not all) of the subs would not either. They would be inserted in a very discrete fluid way. Yes it's a compromise! But when you see XM was worth over $30 a share & Sirius over $6.00 maybe it's time to tweek the product. When the price of the product is less than a turn on a gumball machine I think it's time for the company to reflect on its model and look what can be done from the inside. You can't control your outside enviroment so you better look at what you can do from the inside to adapt and survive.

    PS: Some of the new formats have some DJ's that just ramble on about nothing. If there isn't a mass exodis from that then what I'm proposing is a slam dunk! Cos, Love this discussion. Thanks, Neal
    2008 Nov 28 06:59 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    neal ,i agree, great idea!
    i noticed your postings on this before the article ever came out , great insight !
    the " sub. side" of my brain would'ent bother a bit , a quick 8 second , this hour sponsored by ...
    reasearch on this could be done to select appealing sponsors that pertain to the demographics of each station.
    most likely well established , popular products or services would be best. personaly, i would like to hear one of my faviroites mentioned.
    the investor side of my brain also see a great positive from this.
    2008 Nov 28 08:37 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Dear experts, the shareholders meeting in on 12/18.
    Any idea when we would be knowing whether RS and Dilution is approved or not?
    2008 Nov 28 09:16 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    The more I look at everything the more I think this could be a huge general market drop. I dont think many stocks will be safe. Two weeks of hell, then we should get a bs market rally till march, then all bets are off. I would look to be out of all paper assets by then. Switch your dollars to another currency or hold a large portion in gold. Obama is going to make Roosevelt look capitalistic. They will be printing dollars as fast as possible for 4 years straight. You think the money supply problem was bad at the height of 2006-07, just wait till 2010-11.
    2008 Nov 28 10:00 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Holden, I understand Tyler & Cos1000 being cautious about the idea. But I really don't think there would be a serious problem with most subs. I hate to say this, but even if you lost 5% of the subs the new revenue stream would by far make up for the loss. It would be very important on how it would be presented to the public. But it's not a secret that Sirius Xm is struggling to get traction and most people would be understanding that they needed to tweek the format to generate needed cash flow. There are 8,760 hours in a year. So if you want to play around with what the hourly rate you can see my point. @ $20,000 an hour ='s over $175,000,000. (my math in previous posts was very flawed,sorry) I believe that would increase total revenues by about 20%. Now keep in mind that as subs grow the hourly rate would grow. Once the company was showing a healthy profit they would have the option of eliminating the sponsorship program or reduce subscription costs which would mean more subs. Which in turn would increase the hourly rate meaning more profits (so on and so on)! Thanks for your input, Neal
    2008 Nov 28 10:08 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    yeah neal, probably just a very small% of comerical free diehards would have a problem. is it possible to lower monthly sub. rate, say a buck or so , to the subs. that have no problem with the nat. sponsorship , the 95%.
    and the com.free diehards just stay at current rate.
    it would cut a little off the revenue but the lower sub.rate may offset with some new subs. generated by lower monthly rates.
    techenicaly , i dont know how or if that would work , somehow they would have to fill in that empty 8 second space with a station identification.
    everyone wins , the diehards stay comerical free, and the rest save a little cash on the rate.
    just some thoughts.

    2008 Nov 28 10:50 PM | Link | Reply
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    just did the #s on my last post.
    stupid idea, oh well !
    2008 Nov 28 11:09 PM | Link | Reply
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    Killerkaul, Mr Stupid was right about the turkey thing, it gives them major gas were they will not eat or drink anything for days. I found out the hard way a few years back, I got so worried had to take her to a vet. I dont think a few scraps will hurt just not to much.
    2008 Nov 29 08:12 AM | Link | Reply
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    P.S. to the rest almost through the tuff times. Wait till people here about how much FCF they are going to have. I believe we should here something on that on Dec. 18th, like Mel said before when he came out and said 4th Q 2007 was going to be a great deal more then 4th Q 2006, well before the release of numbers. I myself think that will be the catalist for a upturn in PPS, because people cant at that time use Feb. or May dept as a reason anymore. Or at least it would make no sense When they can show that they are going to have enough COH to take both of them out. Then again nothing on the PPS of this stock has made much sense.
    2008 Nov 29 08:27 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    163888............ Thanks for the advice on the turkey for the dogs. Was unaware of the problem. ... your buddy killer.
    2008 Nov 30 11:45 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Watching the Giants Redskins game, and saw a commercial for the Dodge Ram truck. Hmmmm, advertising wi-fi connectivity, but not Sirius. Ladies and gentlemen, that's the wave of the future. Wifi, not sat rad. If we can get out whole, that would be great, but 5 years from now, there won't be any Sirius.
    2008 Nov 30 03:49 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    IMNJC, you may or may not have a point, while it is true that wifi is spreading, and some cities, such as Cerritos and I believe San Francisco, have complete WIFI coverage, WIFI is by no means everywhere.

    Satellite radio's advantage is that it IS everywhere. As you are driving, especially on a longer road trip through perhaps remote areas, you don't want to lose your reception. This is the nice thing about satellites. They need to deliver more video and monetize the size of their audience though unobtrusive channel or time sponsorships.
    2008 Nov 30 05:57 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Tyler, Music compared to talk radio, as far as advertisers r concerned. Are we comparing apples to oranges? I know Xm has a few music channels w/ commercials, which are not doing well. But I hope Sirius Xm would look at sponsorship from a differant perspective so at least keeping an open mind that they r 2 very differant approaches. Commercials r cumbersome and a show stopper. While sponsorships flow with the programming. I think they would be well served to at least keep it in on the table as an option. Talk formats are a totally diff. format from music and should be looked from a whole diff. perspective.
    2008 Dec 01 09:02 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    what if this.... what if that..this is BS.. Sirius needs to get some refinancing done before 12/18 thats the bottom line.. if not we are looking at further dilution, reverse splits etc...Quit speculating on what might happen if...
    2008 Dec 01 10:16 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    I was just checking out another stock, JOEZ and for us bloggers who have been on SIRI's blogs for months (or even years) it might be entertaining to read some of their posts. I bet you will have deja-vu...lol
    2008 Dec 01 10:18 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    IMHO - I believe the RS and issuance of more shares will pass ( should be interesting if it doesn't though ) ..... I think Mel and the banks have already decided they would rather the public take on the risk ...... I sort of doubt any kind of bank financing other than another share offering is being seriously considered ............ There is too much uncertainty , and I think any kind of conventional loan is probably not even an option ...... banks don't like to gamble with a billion dollars long term , if there is a way to gamble with our money short term , they would rather go that route ........ but you know , they might have a problem with that too .... will there actually be buyers for more siri stock after this debacle ????????
    2008 Dec 01 12:02 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    IMHO ---- Of course when the new shares are offered , Siri will be the darling of wall street
    2008 Dec 01 12:06 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Although I am not really into conspiracies, SiriusXM has me suspicious. I think there has been a lot of negative propaganda surrounding them to drive down the stock price. Between that and the merger the stage is set for somebody to make some really big moves. I just keep waiting to see what the catalyst is for their apparent turn around. Is it a some big advertisers hoping on board? Good question. I don't know but I expect some big news to effect SIRI in a very good way over the next 2 1/2 weeks. Keep an eye on them.
    2008 Dec 01 02:08 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    IMO there will be no such good news before the sharholder's meeting. What would be the incentive? Announcing a financing deal on the outstanding debt now would be a sure way to kill the RS and share authorization . . . which they will want to have in hand as that stock is not likely to go above $1 (or much higher than that if it does somehow make it up to a buck) any time soon, as long as delisting is still a concern.
    2008 Dec 01 02:16 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Wow, I just realized how poorly that last sentence reads. What I what trying to get across is that they will want the RS option in had as long as delisting is a concern regardless of the likelihood of a grace period extension.
    2008 Dec 01 03:23 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    FoolNHis$

    3 times are a charm.... LOL

    Shure46

    I agree with you that the RS and share dilution are going to be a done deal at the annual meeting. I still think that shareholders will be surprised when the final financing arrangement is announced. Shares as warrants against the risk, say B preferred standing in front of the common on a default, are still attractive to a bank with a good payer as Sirius Xm has been. Cash on hand to pay of the remaining Feb 09 is very possible and a new Bank deal on the May debt is a reasonable expectation with more strings, such as the warrants, and a higher rate. To burn the shorts this could be announced after the meeting and RS and Dilution approvals.... Wouldn't that shake things up??

    It is still completely possible that Mel will not issue most of these newly authorized shares. The incredible dilution authorized could be necessary to facilitate the split, even if the reverse was a 1 for 20 resulting in 400 M authorized and 175 M issued as the company is now configured. If the Feb and May 09 debt is taken care of without issuing new Convertible Bonds and instead announce using the COH to take out the Feb debt, I think the stock price would go to .6 to .9 / share on the announcement. Now, if additionally they pre announce good FCF in the 4Q, the stock could easily go back over a buck before any RS would even take place. So much for my Christmas wish......LOL

    2008 Dec 01 05:58 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    cos1000

    I think your right on the timing of announcing the feb debt being resolved. And yes, that would certainly shake things up considerably. I also feel that the shares will be authorized, but I am not so sure they will all be issued. With each passing day, bankruptcy talk is ending and brighter days are certainly ahead. After all, it really can't get much worse.

    By the way, your insight is quite remarkable and appreciated. I enjoy the objectivity that you employ on your posts.

    Long Sirius
    2008 Dec 01 06:15 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    mlongj

    you are too kind...... and thanks...
    2008 Dec 01 06:56 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Yikes, my re-write was as bad as the first. I blame my public school education!

    To be clear, I'm not saying that I don't believe there will be refinancing deal, and possibly well before February at that . . . I just don't think it will be announced before the shareholder meeting. I of course hope I'm wrong.
    2008 Dec 01 07:30 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    FoolNHis$

    I hope your laughing when you say that...... about Public Schools that is.
    2008 Dec 01 09:00 PM | Link | Reply
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    You've got to be kidding me! Mel needs to pull his head out of his you-know-what!! PAY for a subscription to advertising? I don't THINK so. I don't pay $12/month for HBO to watch no stinkin' commercials. And, I don't pay a monthly XM sub to listen to them either.

    A long time ago, I read some suggestions on-line for how the sat-rad model might be improved. Recently, there have been many more of these. Lots of people writing with lots of good, free ideas, but Ol' Mel ain't listening. How about "advertising" your OWN product, Mel, and not other peoples' products? Now, there's an idea! How about free streaming internet of a handful of stations WITH commercials to get people introduced to the (formerly) high quality line-up of sat-rad?

    If you can't tell, I'm a "former" XM subscriber (now a "Sirius-XM subscriber", not by choice) who's not too pleased about the way the XM line-up was DECIMATED.
    2008 Dec 01 09:55 PM | Link | Reply
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    I would say if they have enough chanel space give the subscribers a choice. By offering some commercials at 5 dollars a month or less. Than offer commercial free channel plus the comercial channels at the 12 dollars per month. See which gets the better response or just keep doing both. I know as a consumer I like choices. They could do like cable and give free weekends of certain commercial free channels to get people to spend more if thy like it. I have had sirius and currently have xm. I will not listen to local radio just due to the fact even with the commercials that are there, there is still tons more music and the commercials they do have are very short.
    2008 Dec 02 03:04 PM | Link | Reply