A Lot to Be Thankful for, Despite It All

By Jim Wiandt

You know you're in trouble when the only thing driving the market positive is the latest announcement of a massive government bailout.

It's hard to take your eyes off of this train wreck of an economy we seem to be headed into. And the continuing wild market volatility as we head into Thanksgiving is not reassuring. Worse, the market seems to have priced in our immediate macro-economic future, as it will do, and the picture is not pretty.

I've seen some panic in the streets, and I've seen some malaise, but never quite this combination of foreboding signs of protracted economic bleakness. Maybe I'm remembering things wrong, or maybe I'm succumbing to the forces of capitulation, but that is my sense headed into this Thanksgiving holiday.

So what do we have to be thankful for?

Well, first let's start with Matt Hougan's witty and insightful writing. Let's give credit where credit is due. Matt has learned the economic pundit's axiom - if you keep bleating the same forecast and world view - in his case one of doom and gloom - long enough, eventually you'll be proved a genius. So kudos to you Matt on urging on a 30% sheering of real estate prices and a sub-10,000 Dow.

And what else?

My favorite holiday. Nothing beats Thanksgiving. It's all of the family and none of the commercialism. It's a time to reflect on how fortunate we are (outrageously, it turns out, despite our declining economic prospects... as in how dare we complain when a good portion of the world is scrambling for food day by day). And finally - a chance to feast (a tradition built somewhere into every culture I've been exposed to) and focus on family, being together, gorging ourselves and then retiring to the sofa to watch some football, and maybe even throw a few around (this year in the snow) at halftime out in the front yard.

So happy Thanksgiving to all of the Americans, and best wishes to the rest of the world in weathering the storm we've created for you. There's plenty to be thankful for, regardless of the market.

Comments

[the weakono...:]

I'm thankful for: government debt, useless bailouts, ignorant politicians, debt financed war, and CNBC for showing me the only way to live is in fear of losing everything.

2008 Nov 26 09:58 AM

[jepittman:]

Lets be thankful we have a polar opposite fed policy from 1929. We will have a nasty recession but not an eight year depression. We may have 8% unemployment soon but it won't be 25% like 1933. We will come through this and prosperity will return.

2008 Nov 26 05:41 PM

[joe1:]

and im thankful to read everyday and laugh of some average joe constantly bitchin about the bailout and not having an ounce of accountability in waking about and realizing he was just as responsible for the debacle in taking out crap loans and using his house as an ATM. ill be thankful next year when everyone just shuts up and deals with it!! soooo right about CNBC. they have lost so much credibility with me

2008 Nov 26 05:42 PM

[Jason Rines...:]

1) I am thankful everyday my family has a great roof over there heads and kids are absorbing the life concepts I can teach. I don't want for anything and am grateful for the years of prosperity and am thankful some wise mentors taught me the value of giving something back to society.
2) I am not thankful mankind and in particular America has not learned that you don't have a good society when one group has the power to take your productivity and hand it off to someone else that has already proven to be inept or corrupt.

2008 Nov 26 05:44 PM

[joe1:]

tinkbig.. your words are so so true. Sad. on 2 but true!

2008 Nov 26 05:46 PM

[sickofthehype:]

My Grandfather always said to be thankful for good health, end of story.

"You're already a millionaire if you have your health"

That, is so true, and something many of us take for granted. Because in the end, it doesn't matter how much you've made in the markets if you can't get out to enjoy it.

2008 Nov 26 06:11 PM

[Roowns:]

The bailouts had nothing to do with market rally. It's because companies mostly finished presenting results so people expect less bad news then usual in next months. I expect to get to 1.000 on S&P 500 and then range between 800 and 1.000 for a while.
I think before 4th quarter results markets are not prepared for new lows, so fortunately will all enjoy the Christmas.

2008 Nov 26 06:18 PM

[Anthony Alfidi:]

I'm thankful for the ability to go short and write uncovered calls.

I'm thankful that gold is severly underpriced.

I'm thankful that market volatility makes VIX options proftiable.

2008 Nov 26 07:23 PM

[DollarTalk:]

I am very thankful for the blessings that I have in my life. Now, regarding the market, the power of optimism never ceases to amaze me. In fact, we are missing a very large component of our view on the market and the economy in larger view when we discount the role of perception. Most of this market volatility was brought on by increased uncertainty and the perception that our credit crisis and financial difficulties were beyond our ability to solve as a free market. This, of course, was exacerbated by the media and capitalized on by the media in order to accomplish the election of now President-elect Obama. Now, the media has their man and would do well to continue to promote positive, uplifting views on the future direction of the economy and the solutions and people proposed by President-elect Obama. Otherwise, they will find themselves in the company of the Republican party when the public develops a pessimistic or negative perception of the new President and his leadership team. That's all for now. More on my blog.

2008 Nov 27 01:04 AM

[Alphameister:]

Worst year for me in a very long time, but I have good health, much love in my life, and a standard of living that would be the envy of 99% of the people on this planet. That's enough to make me wealthy beyond measure and thankful once again for the many blessings in my life.

2008 Nov 27 04:51 PM