Advisors Show Cautious Optimism According to Rydex Benchmark

Financial advisor confidence in the economy and stock market improved for the first time since August, according to the Advisor Confidence Index.

The benchmark, which is provided by Rydex Advisor Benchmarking, was at 82.46 in November, up 4% from 79.07 in October.

Still, only two of the four main indicators increased in November. The four components of the monthly Advisor Confidence Index in November were:

• Current economic outlook, which actually fell by 2.86% from the previous month.
• The six-month economic outlook jumped some 9.09%.
• At the same time, the 12-month economic outlook went up even more, by 14.98%.
• But advisors' overall market outlook dropped by 3.42%.

In the survey that accompanies the benchmark, Registered Investment Advisors expressed cautious optimism for the remainder of the year. Some 35% of advisors responded that from mid-November to year-end, the stock market should rise more than 5% from its current levels.

By contrast, 29% of advisors surveyed by Rydex said that at the end of the year, the stock market would be flat from its current levels.

Some advisors included in the Rydex survey said they were looking at the current market as a time to buy stocks on the cheap as part of annual rebalancing.

"Unless we have a deflationary depression, odds are very good that a year from now, stock prices will be significantly higher. In the five cases where prices did not fall more than 50%, one-year returns following the bottom were 26%, 26%, 44%, 45% and 95%," noted Bill Ramsay, an advisor with Financial Symmetry Inc. and part of the Rydex survey group.