What Should Google Do Next?

Is it possible to predict the future? Is it possible to influence the future? Sometimes we get used to doing things in a certain way even if it no longer makes sense. When there is a clear need and the technology exists, it is quite easy to predict the future.

Six years ago I was talking with Nir, who worked in my department at orange.co.il in Israel as marketing manager of Mobile content. I mentioned that there was an opportunity for an online retailer to evolve in the music and video space. I mentioned that I could see consumers paying premium for comfort while they download music and movies or watched it via streaming. Nir was surprised and said he did not believe that in a world full of piracy, someone would actually pay to access music.

Well time flew by and 6 years later, a new retail giant evolved – Apple (AAPL). It is now the number one music retailer, charging per download, with millions of users every month. Let's try to predict what Google (GOOG) or Apple can do next.

A strong need for online storage tools

My family has 3 computers at home. We also have 3 portable hard drives. I have one computer at work where I can save files on my desktop and two servers to store and share files with my colleagues. I have one Gmail account, bookmarks stored on my Firefox and Google desk top, contacts stored on my Gmail account, Linkedin account, Plaxo account, Outlook account, the list can go on and on… There is a very clear need to enable me to put every thing online and access it from anywhere while I can search and tag files, enjoy constant backup, as well as excellent security – much better than what I have on my personal computer.

Google developed many new cool services in the last few years – from searching online maps and satellite to browsers (Chrome) and operation system (Android). Most of the services do not generate any revenue stream for the company, many claiming that they have only one strong business model – advertising via Google ad-word and adsense platforms, which I tend to agree with.

The opportunity

I have already switched from my Outlook to Gmail and Google Calendar a year ago. I save a lot of time due to the fact that all my emails are integrated into one account, in addition to tagging and searching emails much faster than ever before. I now actually save files on my Gmail account just to be able to access them for future use from anywhere.

But with most of my files and contacts this is not the case. I keep storing them in several locations which does not make sense. There is a waste of storage resources due to duplications, there is a waste of time I spend looking for the information, and there is a limit to my accessibility. Big corporations can solve most of it with a secure VPN solution, but what about individuals and SMEs?

I use Google to search for information about 30 times per day now. Heck, I even joke with my friends that if possible, I would use it to search for my keys or glasses. Google should evolve from a search engine for web page content that monetizes traffic, to general digital media storage and search solutions. I believe that Google can develop a service that will enable users to upload, download, search, tag and do all the great functions that Google already enables us to do via Gmail. How could they charge for this service? Per file (similar to pay per click)? Per MB? Subscription based? I don't know, but all of those options could become an excellent business model for them.

I am sure there is a great need that will enable users to save time and storage space, enjoy an automatic backup and the ability to access the information from anywhere. Unlike Android, Chrome or Google Docs which face and will continue to face a lot of competition, this opportunity is wide open.

5-10 years from now when bandwidth will be much bigger and faster, it will seem strange that we used to store information on our HD, DVD or CD ROM, just as strange as records and cassette tapes seem today. We will be able to search and access our files from anywhere while we enjoy better user interface, automatic backup and enhanced security via Google file hosting service.

Disclosure: Long GOOG and AAPL.

Comments

[Murphy Mac:]

Google is taking all the visions Bill Gates had ten-plus years ago and making them a reality. How did MS miss this boat??

2008 Dec 03 09:58 AM

[LA Tech:]

The question isn't what kool services Google provides, the question is how much revenue and profits can Google generate from these kool services.

Right now, 95% of GoogleApps users (minus Postini) use the FREE version. That means Google paid search subsidizes Google Enterprise.

Look into the upper right corner of the Premium Google Apps and you will find that you paid $50 per user per year for a BETA version of the service.

Why pay for a service that Google admits is BETA and not ready for prime time.

Google Apps will never compete with MSFT Office to SMB or Enterprise customers because of the perceived value of Google Apps.

Google is unable to flip users from the FREE version to the PAID version and one big reason is the fact that GoogleApps is BETA.

There has never been a mission critical business application that didn't pay for itself over time and become profitable.

Google Apps is losing ground every single day by giving away for FREE something most businesses would never ever pay for...BETA software!

2008 Dec 03 10:04 AM

[Dan404:]

What happens when Google terminates your account for no apparent reason and you can't access your data.
You can't get it fixed because they don't believe in customer service.

www.searchenginejourna.../

Your day will come, it took me half of October to get my account unlocked.
Goog luck in the cloud, I'll stay firmly planted on the terra firma from now on.

2008 Dec 03 02:10 PM

[Aquarious:]

Isn't all that in the "cloud" computing everyone's talking about?
One existing and working example is the MobilMe service from Apple.

Seems to me Google is more interested in commerce, i.e. shopping habits of people in various locations.

2008 Dec 03 02:25 PM

[Barak:]

Very good feedback.
Actually cloud computing is in very early stage, unlike browsers.
So it makes sense for google to reach leadership position.
Just like they did when search was in early stage in 1995.

Barak


On Dec 03 01:36 PM jackdee wrote:

> >>Unlike Android, Chrome or Google Docs which face and will continue
> to face a lot of competition, this opportunity is wide open<<

>
>
> All I can say is WTF???? This is already an area where there is
> massive comp.
> Billins of dollars are being spent competing in this area. It is
> setting up to be a battle Royale and this muppet of a blogger figures
> it is wide open.
>
>
>
>
> Here is the big scary news google thinks it is ahead, the blogging
> fanboys think goog is ahead, but in fact they are running at least
> a lap down.
> The big blue sky is wide open alright but it is not blue it is Azure.

2008 Dec 06 06:16 PM

[Barak:]

MS did not miss this boat.
Actually they are very focused on it with Windows Vuze


On Dec 03 09:58 AM Murphy wrote:

> Google is taking all the visions Bill Gates had ten-plus years ago
> and making them a reality. How did MS miss this boat??
>

2008 Dec 06 06:17 PM