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Happy New Year, everybody!

Thursday's economic announcements with a published market consensus on Briefing.com include the following:

8:15 AM ADP Employment Change - market expects 140K

8:30 AM Initial Claims - market expects 365K

8:30 AM Continuing Claims - market expects 3,200K

In order to do this, we have compiled data on over 6,000 U.S. economic releases and market expectations over the last 8 years to help us pick which stocks are most likely to overperform or underperform the day of a market beat or miss. To drown out the noise from specific stocks doing well for non-macro reasons, we are going to look only at sector SPDRs. All data is compiled by the author from Yahoo Finance.

(click to enlarge)

ADP Employment Change

Historical Observations:

Observations: 55

Beats: 26

Meets: 2

Misses: 27 (misses 49.0% of the time)

When there is a surprise and ADP Employment Change is larger than expected, historically, the best performing sector fund is Financial Select Sector SPDR (NYSEARCA:XLF), which has an up day 61.5% of the time and increases on average by 1.1% on the day of the surprise. This group includes stocks like Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) and Bank of America (NYSE:BAC).

The worst performing sector is Consumer Staples Sector SPDR (NYSEARCA:XLP), which averages a daily return of 0.2%. This group includes P&G (NYSE:PG) Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO) and Philip Morris (NYSE:PM).

When there is a surprise and ADP Employment Change is lower than expected, historically, the best performing sector fund is Consumer Staples Sector SPDR, which has an up day 55.6% of the time and increases on average by 0.2% on the day of the surprise.

The worst performing sector is Materials Select Sector SPDR (NYSEARCA:XLB), which averages a daily return of -0.1%. This group includes Monsanto (NYSE:MON) DuPont (NYSE:DD) and Dow (NYSE:DOW).

Initial Claims

Historical Observations:

Observations: 408

Beats: 164

Meets: 89

Misses: 155 (misses 37.0% of the time)

When there is a surprise and Initial Claims is larger than expected, historically, the best performing sector fund is Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (NYSEARCA:XLY), which has an up day 52.4% of the time and increases on average by 0.1% on the day of the surprise. This group includes stocks like Comcast (NASDAQ:CMCSA) Home Depot (NYSE:HD) and Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN).

The worst performing sector is Energy Select Sector SPDR (NYSEARCA:XLE), which averages a daily return of -0.2%. This group includes Exxon (NYSE:XOM) Chevron (NYSE:CVX) and Schlumberger (NYSE:SLB).

When there is a surprise and Initial Claims is lower than expected, historically, the best performing sector fund is Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR, which has an up day 58.7% of the time and increases on average by 0.2% on the day of the surprise.

The worst performing sector is Financial Select Sector SPDR, which averages a daily return of -0.1%.

Continuing Claims

Historical Observations:

Observations: 168

Beats: 27

Meets: 94

Misses: 47 (misses 27.0% of the time)

When there is a surprise and Continuing Claims is larger than expected, historically, the best performing sector fund is Consumer Discretionary SPDR, which has an up day 55.6% of the time and increases on average by 0.0% on the day of the surprise.

The worst performing sector is Materials Select Sector SPDR, which averages a daily return of -0.4%.

When there is a surprise and Continuing Claims is lower than expected, historically, the best performing sector fund is Financial Select Sector SPDR, which has an up day 63.8% of the time and increases on average by 0.6% on the day of the surprise.

The worst performing sector is Utilities Sector SPDR (NYSEARCA:XLU), which averages a daily return of 0.2%.

Good luck traders: if you have suggestions for other stats on the market you'd like to see, please message us.

Disclaimer: While we believe all of the above information is correct, we cannot be held responsible or liable for the content or accuracy of any posted (or any other form of transmitted) material in any way, or for any consequences resulting from its use. All data is provided for informational purposes only, and we shall not be held liable for any errors or delays in the content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon.

Source: Thursday's Employment Announcements: How To Trade Them