Bear Market Rally Underway

I can unequivocably and with complete confidence say that I am 50% certain the bottom is in. For 2008. I think we go back and retest the lows next year. However, I think the 2008 lows were set last month. It's not like it's a brave call or anything - there are only 18 trading days remaining in the year.

I read somewhere Wednesday that since 1900, when the market has been down three months in a row, it is up the following month 85% of the time.

The market has had one of its worst periods ever. Even during the Great Depression, the market rallied significantly. We have had no such rally. I believe we are at the beginning of one.

On Monday, the ARMS index was 10.13, the second highest reading in history, surpassing the 1987 crash. For what its worth, Dick Arms is calling for a major bottom.

There are positive divergences. The lows in October (~3000) outnumbered the lows in November (~1900) . There were relatively few new lows on the Monday downdraft (~100).

Check out the RSI and MACD.

click to enlarge

When the market hit new lows, both did not. Now, both are approaching multi-month highs.

I think that there are too many issues in the economy to give an all-clear for a new bull market. However, I think a bear market rally is underway. I have been buying stocks and REITs over the past two weeks. I intend to continue doing so on pullbacks.

Comments

[Smarty_Pants:]

You may be right.

Good luck and keep your stops tight. It takes a more time to gain in a bounce than to lose in the plunge that resumes the downtrend.

2008 Dec 04 10:23 AM

[SivBum:]

toro,

good luck...at least you are buying at 40% discount from Dec 31st 2007.

2008 Dec 04 10:41 AM