Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

<< Return to page 1




































According to Lowry’s Research, there were 16 +300 point days in the previous bear market from 2000-2003. Is that relevant? Maybe, but it offers some perspective.

Let’s remember, it’s the season for a rally, with markets still much oversold on long-term monthly charts and money manager performance at a category below crummy [see WSJ hedge fund article here and Morningstar YTD category returns below].

A symbol of hard times is hard whiskey and Brown-Forman noted strong sales of Jack Daniels bourbon last week [I’ve got an extra bottle in the cabinet.] Are we suffering with hard times? No, it’s just I don’t want to be left out of the good parts.

We remain short-term overbought and long-term oversold. The markets are in transition. What are they moving to? I hope it’s not a trading range since they’re unproductive. GS, I believe, today forecast 975 on the S&P 500 as the upside target for 2009. That’s not a lot and indicates a potential trading range if they’re right. That’s a big if.

Let’s see what happens.

Have a pleasant evening.

Disclaimer: The ETF Digest has no positions…yet.

P.S. Previously I’ve posted some snapshots from the nearby Cajas National Park about 20 minutes from Cuenca, Ecuador. Many liked the random photos. Here is where I was yesterday afternoon hiking through the area spying birds and trout. The hiking is strenuous since the altitude is around 9K feet.



I stop and take a photo of a cute little Chola girl staring at me.

Comments

[CTMike:]

Dave, Be careful for what you ask for. If you get your own personal stimulus package from Congress, you may have to divorce and they get to pick your new spouse; or a least have an observer placed in your household. We all need to step back and look at what is happening before our eyes. Firing the CEO of GM is the job of the board of directors or shareholders, not Congress. If Congress wants to impact management, they need to wake up the shareholders. Can you just imagine Congress getting involved in this? I'm gaggin just thinking about it. The only thing they are good at is putting the blame on somebody else. Stalin, Lenin and their boys would be proud of what we are doing.
PS: Toilet paper will be $100 bills. $1's will be used in the fireplace.

2008 Dec 09 09:29 AM

[NOWHEREMAN:]

The Dems did their "we don't need you routine" again.
The Reps will return the same verdict this time around as they did for the first Financial Bailout, not on my watch Pelosi.

Don't expect a lot and you won't get a lot.

Besides, The Mark to Market Rule has been retained on this side of the Pond.

IMHO

2008 Dec 09 09:43 AM

[pansyed:]

Good comentary. I am waiting for you to jump ship and say we are investing in something.

Love the photos.

2008 Dec 09 10:12 AM

[specks:]

You know... that picture of the little girl puts everything into perspective!!
Doesn't she just seem to be thinking..." I wonder what the fed will do tomorrow?"

2008 Dec 09 04:11 PM

[Carl Spackler:]

Your stuff is always a must-read for me!

2008 Dec 09 05:01 PM