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We just finished reviewing the performance of the 2012 stock picks made by select brokers, financial publications and independent advisors in this article. In 2013 we will be tracking the performance of stocks selected for the New Year by Fortune, Barron's, RBC Capital Markets, Barclays, BOA - Merrill Lynch, CNN Money, Credit Suisse, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Kiplingers and a group of 15 Star Investors here. Their stock selections are listed below with a link to the original source article in each of their names.

Recommended StockTickerStock Picker
Align TechnologyALGN15 Star Investors
PentairPNR15 Star Investors
Public StoragePSA15 Star Investors
Gilead SciencesGILD15 Star Investors
Moody'sMCO15 Star Investors
CMS EnergyCMS15 Star Investors
Albany InternationalALB15 Star Investors
Verifone SystemsPAY15 Star Investors
U.S.BancorpUSB15 Star Investors
FordF15 Star Investors
ComcastCMCSA15 Star Investors
UnileverUL15 Star Investors
Fresenius Medical CareFMS15 Star Investors
CF Industries HoldingCFBarclays
Stillwater MiningSWCBarclays
Air Products & Chemicals Inc.APDBarclays
Sealed Air Corp.SEEBarclays
Beam, Inc.BEAMBarclays
Newell Rubbermaid Inc.NWLBarclays
Kraft Foods Group Inc.KRFTBarclays
Dollar General Corp.DGBarclays
EOG ResourcesEOGBarclays
EQT CorporationEQTBarclays
Tesoro CorporationTSOBarclays
SM Energy Co.SMBarclays
Halliburton Co.HALBarclays
Blackstone Group LPBXBarclays
Aflac Inc.AFLBarclays
ACE LimitedACEBarclays
Citigroup Inc.CBarclays
City NationalCYNBarclays
Essex Property Trust Inc.ESSBarclays
Commerce Bancshares, Inc.CBSHBarclays
American ExpressAXPBarclays
Ariad PharmaceuticalsARIABarclays
HCA Holdings Inc.HCABarclays
UnitedHealth GroupUNHBarclays
Johnson & JohnsonJNJBarclays
Thoratec Corp.THORBarclays
Watson Pharmaceuticals Inc.WPIBarclays
Southwest AirlinesLUVBarclays
Tesla Motors IncTSLABarclays
Union Pacific Corp.UNPBarclays
General DynamicsGDBarclays
Delphi AutomotiveDLPHBarclays
Mohawk IndustriesMHKBarclays
McGraw-Hill Companies Inc.MHPBarclays
Robert Half International Inc.RHIBarclays
American Public Education Inc.APEIBarclays
Chicago Bridge & IronCBIBarclays
Cummins Inc.CMIBarclays
Tyco InternationalTYCBarclays
Liberty Global, Inc.LBTYABarclays
Google Inc.GOOGBarclays
CBS Corp.CBSBarclays
Northeast UtilitiesNUBarclays
NRG EnergyNRGBarclays
Penn National GamingPENNBarclays
Coach, Inc.COHBarclays
Tiffany & CoTIFBarclays
Darden RestaurantsDRIBarclays
Home Depot Inc.HDBarclays
Cheniere Energy Partners LPCQPBarclays
Cisco Systems, Inc.CSCOBarclays
Corning Inc.GLWBarclays
Visa Inc.VBarclays
Apple, Inc.AAPLBarclays
Teradyne Inc.TERBarclays
NXP Semiconductors NVNXPIBarclays
VMware Inc.VMWBarclays
Qualcomm, Inc.QCOMBarclays
América MóvilAMXBarclays
SBA Communications Corp.SBACBarclays
AppleAAPLBarron's
Barnes and NobleBKSBarron's
BlackrockBLKBarron's
General DynamicsGDBarron's
JPMorgan ChaseJPMBarron's
Marathon PetroleumMPCBarron's
NovartisNVSBarron's
Royal Dutch ShellRDS.ABarron's
ViacomVIABarron's
Western DigitalWDCBarron's
FordFBOA - Merrill Lynch
Wal-MartWMTBOA - Merrill Lynch
ValeroVLOBOA - Merrill Lynch
CitigroupCBOA - Merrill Lynch
LillyLLYBOA - Merrill Lynch
3MMMMBOA - Merrill Lynch
CiscoCSCOBOA - Merrill Lynch
MosaicMOSBOA - Merrill Lynch
CenturyLinkCTLBOA - Merrill Lynch
Northeast UtilitiesNUBOA - Merrill Lynch
BorgWarnerBWACNN Money
Home Inns & Hotels ManagementHMINCNN Money
Akamai TechnologiesAKAMCNN Money
AppleAAPLCNN Money
Cheniere EnergyLNGCNN Money
Marathon PetroleumMPCCNN Money
First Quantum MineralsFQVLFCNN Money
Whitehaven CoalWHITFCNN Money
Yingli Green EnergyYGECNN Money
Arcos DoradosARCOCNN Money
Morgan StanleyMSCredit Suisse
Goldman Sachs GroupGSCredit Suisse
Apollo Global ManagementAPOCredit Suisse
Carlyle GroupCGCredit Suisse
Intercontinental ExchangeICECredit Suisse
LazardLAZCredit Suisse
Align Technology Inc.ALGNFortune
Pentair Ltd.PNRFortune
Gilead SciencesGILDFortune
Moody's CorporationMCOFortune
VeriFone SystemsPAYFortune
U.S.BancorpUSBFortune
Ford Motor CompanyFFortune
Comcast Corp.CMCSAFortune
UnileverULFortune
Fresenius Medical Care AGFMSFortune
HalliburtonHALGoldman Sachs
Newfield Exploration Co.NFSGoldman Sachs
Joy Global Inc.JOYGoldman Sachs
Teradata CorporationTDCGoldman Sachs
Owens-Illinois, Inc.OIGoldman Sachs
Denbury Resources IncDNRJPMorgan
CA IncCAJPMorgan
Occidental Petroleum CorpOXYJPMorgan
Noble Corp.NEJPMorgan
Tesoro CorpTSOJPMorgan
FedEx Corp.FDXJPMorgan
Dell IncDELLJPMorgan
Prudential Financial Inc.PRUJPMorgan
Boeing Co.BAJPMorgan
Apache Corp.APAJPMorgan
Halliburton Co.HALJPMorgan
MetLife Inc.METJPMorgan
Staples Inc.SPLSJPMorgan
Cardinal Health Inc.CAHJPMorgan
Macy's Inc.MJPMorgan
Peabody Energy Corp.BTUJPMorgan
CF Industries Holdings Inc.CFJPMorgan
Marathon Oil Corp.MROJPMorgan
CoachCOHKiplinger
CovidenCOVKiplinger
John B. Sanfilippo & SonsJBSSKiplinger
QualcommQCOMKiplinger
TRW AutomotiveTRWKiplinger
Toll BrothersTOLKiplinger
VMWareVMWKiplinger
Wells FargoWFCKiplinger
CenveoCVOKiplinger
ComcastCMCSAKiplinger
StrykerSYKKiplinger
New Oriental Education & Tech. Grp.EDUKiplinger
Kimberly-ClarkKMBKiplinger
U.S.BancorpUSBKiplinger
DellDELLKiplinger
TangoeTNGOKiplinger
Reed ElsevierRUKKiplinger
Ford Motor CompanyFKiplinger
Ocwen FinancialOCNKiplinger
Fortress Investment GroupFIGKiplinger
Brookfield Residential PropertiesBRPKiplinger
Joy GlobalJOYKiplinger
AIGAIGKiplinger
Brook Asset Management IncBAMRBC Capital Markets
Magna International IncMGARBC Capital Markets
Silver Wheaton CorpSLWRBC Capital Markets
The Tornoto-Dominion BankTDRBC Capital Markets
TELUS CorporationTURBC Capital Markets
Valeant Pharmaceuticals IntlVRXRBC Capital Markets
Dollarama IncDLMAFRBC Capital Markets
TransForceTFIFFRBC Capital Markets

You can view stock charts of almost all these selections here.

It is probable that about half of these stocks will not beat the market during 2013. The chart below shows how the pro's stock selections tracked for 2012 fared.

(click to enlarge)

Most of the stock performances are clustered around the market averages but you can see that there are significant numbers that performed far better and also far worse.

Stocks that were selected by more than one picker for 2013 are: Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), Align Technology (NASDAQ:ALGN), Citigroup Inc. (NYSE:C), CF Industries Holding (NYSE:CF), Comcast (NASDAQ:CMCSA), Coach, Inc. (NYSE:COH), Cisco Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ:CSCO), Dell Inc (NASDAQ:DELL), Ford (NYSE:F), General Dynamics (NYSE:GD), Halliburton Co. (NYSE:HAL), Joy Global Inc. (NYSE:JOY), Marathon Petroleum (NYSE:MPC), Northeast Utilities (NYSE:NU), Qualcomm, Inc. (NASDAQ:QCOM), Tesoro Corporation (NYSE:TSO), U.S.Bancorp (NYSE:USB) and VMware Inc. (NYSE:VMW). (Fortune used 10 of the 15 Star Investor stock selections for their portfolio so these are not included as multiple picks.)

However, consensus among different stock pickers doesn't provide any clear improvement in performance. The chart below shows the performance of 2012 stocks that were selected by multiple pickers.

(click to enlarge)

As with the complete list of 2012 stock selections, there are as many stocks beating the market as underperforming the market.

We decided to run all 142 stock selections though the AAII (American Association of Individual Investors) Stock Investor Professional software database and selected 11 stocks prioritized from the AAII screens that had the highest annual returns over the past 3 years as follows:

1. Stock Market Winners Screen (3 Year - 46% annual return)

This is a growth and value with pricing momentum screen and the only company passing was:

John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc. (NASDAQ:JBSS)

Passing criteria for this screen are:

  • The price-to-book ratio is less than or equal to 1.5
  • Earnings per share from continuing operations for each of the last two fiscal quarters (Q1 and Q2) are greater than the earnings per share from continuing operations for the same quarter one year prior (Q5 and Q6)
  • Same-quarter growth in earnings per share from continuing operations from Q5 to Q1 is greater than the same-quarter growth in earnings per share from continuing operations from Q6 to Q2
  • The five-year growth rate in earnings per share from continuing operations is greater than zero
  • The weighted relative strength for the last four quarters is higher than 70% of the entire database (Percent rank greater than or equal to 70)
  • The pretax profit margin for the last 12 months is positive
  • The current stock price is within 15% of the highest price at which the stock has traded over the last two years
  • The average number of shares outstanding for the last fiscal quarter (Q1) is no greater than 20 million

2. Estimated Earning Up Screen (3 Year - 24.8% annual return)

This screen is based on upwards earnings estimate revisions. Six companies passed this screen:

Apollo Global Management LLC (NYSE:APO)

BlackRock, Inc. (NYSE:BLK)

Coach, Inc.

Moody's Corporation (NYSE:MCO)

Novartis AG (ADR) (NYSE:NVS)

Teradyne, Inc. (NYSE:TER)

Passing criteria for this screen are:

  • There are more than four analysts providing earnings estimates for the current fiscal year (Y0)
  • The latest earnings per share estimate for the current fiscal year (Y0) is greater than it was one month ago
  • The latest earnings per share estimate for the next fiscal year (Y1) is greater than it was one month ago
  • There has been at least one upward revision in the earnings estimate for the current fiscal year (Y0) over the last month
  • There have been no downward revisions in the earnings estimate for the current fiscal year (Y0) over the last month
  • There has been at least one upward revision in the earnings estimate for the next fiscal year (Y1) over the last month
  • There have been no downward revisions in the earnings estimate for the next fiscal year (Y1) over the last month
  • The top 30 companies are those that have had the 30 largest percentage increases in the current-year consensus EPS estimate over the last month
  • Alternate-up 5%: Earnings estimates have been revised upward by 5% or more

3. Dreman with estimate revisions (3 year - 21.8% annual return)

This screen looks for contrarian stocks with upward earnings revisions. Only one company passed this screen which also passed screen #2 above:

Teradyne, Inc.

Passing criteria for this screen are:

  • For those companies listed on the New York Stock Exchange, those whose market capitalization for the current quarter (Q1) is in the top 30% of the entire database (Percent Rank is greater than or equal to 70)
  • For those companies listed on the Amex or Nasdaq (National and Smallcap) and the over the counter (OTC) market, those whose market capitalization for the current quarter (Q1) is in the top 15% of the entire database (Percent Rank is greater than or equal to 85)
  • The total liabilities to total assets ratio for the last fiscal quarter (Q1) is less than or equal to the industry's median total liabilities to total assets ratio for the same period
  • The price-earnings ratio is in the bottom 40% of the entire database (Percent Rank less than or equal to 40)
  • There are at least four analysts providing earnings estimates for the current fiscal year (Y0)
  • The current earnings estimate for the current fiscal year (Y0) is greater than it was one month ago
  • The current earnings estimate for the next fiscal year (Y1) is greater than it was one month ago
  • At least one analyst has increased their earnings estimate for the current fiscal year (Y0)
  • At least one analyst has increased their earnings estimate for the next fiscal year (Y1)
  • There have been no downward revisions in the earnings estimates for the current fiscal year (Y0)
  • There have been no downward revisions in the earnings estimates for the next fiscal year (Y1)

4. O'Shaughnessy: Tiny Titans Screen (3 year - 20.4%)

This screen looks for cheap stocks on the mend. Only one company passed this screen which also passed screen #1 above and was:

John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc

The passing criteria for this screen are:

  • Companies not based in the United States are excluded
  • Companies that trade on the over-the-counter market are excluded
  • Market capitalization for the latest fiscal quarter (Q1) is greater than or equal to $25 million and is less than or equal to $250 million
  • The price-to-sales ratio is less than one
  • The final results are the 25 companies with the highest relative price strength over the last 52 weeks

5. Templeton Screen (3 year - 19.2%)

This screen looks for favorable margins, consistent earnings growth, and price-earnings ratios below historic norms. Only one company passed this screen which was:

Apple Inc.

The passing criteria for this screen are:

  • The price-earnings ratio is less than the average price-earnings ratio for the last five years
  • The average price-earnings ratio for each of the last five fiscal years is less than 75
  • The growth rate in earnings per share for the last 12 months is positive
  • The growth rate in earnings per share for the last five years months is positive
  • The estimated long-term growth rate in earnings per share is positive
  • The estimated long-term growth rate in earnings per share is greater than the industry's median estimated long-term growth rate in earnings per share
  • Earnings per share for the last twelve months is greater than or equal to earnings per share for the last fiscal year (Y1)
  • Year-to-year earnings per share have increased over each of the last five fiscal years (Y5 to Y4, Y4 to Y3, etc)
  • The operating margin for the last 12 months is positive
  • The operating margin for the last fiscal year (Y1) is positive
  • The operating margin for the last 12 months is greater than or equal to the industry's median operating margin for the same period
  • The operating margin for the last fiscal year (Y1) is greater than or equal to the industry's median operating margin for the same period
  • The ratio of total liabilities to total assets for the last fiscal quarter (Q1) is less than the industry's median ratio of total liabilities to total assets for the same period

6. IBD Stable 70 (3 year - 17.4% annual return)

This screen looks for companies with strong and stable long-term earnings growth. Only one company passed this screen which was:

Apple Inc.

The passing criteria for this screen are:

  • Earnings per share from continuing operations for the last four fiscal quarters (12m) is greater than or equal to earnings per share from continuing operations for the last fiscal year (Y1)
  • Earnings per share from continuing operations has increased by at least 10% over each of the last five fiscal years (Y6 to Y5, Y5 to Y4, Y4 to Y3, Y3 to Y2, Y2 to Y1)
  • The growth rate in earnings per share from continuing operations between the last fiscal quarter (Q1) and the same quarter one year ago (Q5) is at least 10%
  • The growth rate in revenue between the last fiscal quarter (Q1) and the same quarter one year ago (Q5) is at least 10%
  • The R-squared value for earnings per share from continuing operations for the last seven years is at least 80%
  • The price per share is at least $12
  • The company's shares do not trade as American depositary receipts (ADRs)
  • The stock trades on either the American, New York, or NASDAQ exchanges (does not trade over the counter)

7. John Neff Screen (3 year - 17% annual return)

This screen approach uses a stringent contrarian viewpoint - finding undervalued, out-of-favor stocks in the bargain basement that have an optimistic future. Only one company passed this screen which was:

AFLAC Incorporated (NYSE:AFL)

The passing criteria for this screen are:

  • The ratio of the current price-earnings ratio to the sum of the estimated growth in earnings per share and dividend yield (Dividend-adjusted PEG ratio) is less than or equal to half of the median value for the entire database
  • The estimated growth rate in earnings per share is greater than or equal to 7% and less than or equal to 20%
  • The five-year growth rate in sales is greater than or equal to 7% and less than or equal to 20%
  • Free cash flow per share over the last 12 months and the last fiscal year (Y1) is positive
  • The operating margin over the last 12 months is greater than or equal to the industry's median operating margin over the same period
  • The operating margin over the last fiscal year (Y1) is greater than or equal to the industry's median operating margin for the same period

8. Buffettology: EPS Growth (3 year - 15.3% annual return)

A Buffett approach screen seeking consumer monopolies selling at a reasonable price. Four of the companies passed this screen:

Apple Inc.

Coach, Inc.

Cummins Inc. (NYSE:CMI)

Western Digital Corp. (NASDAQ:WDC)

The passing criteria for this screen are:

  • The current operating margin is greater than or equal to the industry's current median operating margin
  • The current net profit margin is greater than or equal to the industry's current median net profit margin
  • The total liabilities to total assets ratio for the last fiscal quarter (Q1) is less than or equal to the industry's median total liabilities to total assets ratio for the same period
  • The seven-year growth rate in earnings per share from continuing operations ranks in the top 75% of the entire database (percent rank greater than or equal to 75)
  • The three-year growth rate in earnings per share from continuing operations is greater than or equal to the seven-year growth rate in earnings per share from continuing operations
  • The earnings per share from continuing operations for the last 12 months and for each of the last seven fiscal years is positive
  • The current return on equity is greater than 12%
  • The seven-year average return on equity is greater than 12%
  • The projected 10-year rate of return (calculated using the current price and the projected price in ten years based on historical earnings growth, projected earnings per share, and historical average price-earnings ratio) is greater than or equal to 15%

Remember that the AAII portfolio annual returns are based on the stocks being adjusted every month, which means that most stocks are typically not held for a one year period but this gives a good starting point at this point in time. We'll see how the performance of this portfolio compares to the expert's portfolios.

Source: 2013 Stock Picks: 11 Out Of 142