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In a time when it is hard to find any equity performing well, Space Systems Loral (LORL), absent any real news, has doubled their stock price in the last week. You read that correctly. The stock price has doubled.

Space Systems Loral bottomed on December 1, 2008 at $6.04 per share. Since that time, the price per share has risen to nearly $13. The last real financial news announced by the company was their quarterly report nearly 3 weeks ago. Loral has contracts with Sirius XM Radio (SIRI) for two satellites, and also provides a $100,000,000 credit facility to the satellite radio provider.

Some have questioned the stability of the satellite manufacturer, and even their ability to provide Sirius XM with funding. However, Loral themselves carry a revolving credit worth $100,000,000 with JP Morgan (JPM). Thus, if Sirius XM were to request dollars from their credit line, Loral would simply follow suit and knock on JP Morgan’s door.

So what has happened to cause the big stock turnaround in Loral? Is it a technical move, or is there some bit of news that is about to happen? Only time will tell, but in this current economy, it is good to see an equity make a nice run to the upside.

Disclosure: No Position Loral, Long Sirius XM

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This article has 15 comments:

  •  
    Loral has a constant backlog of high-value satellite purchases and TT&C contracts. It takes at least 18 months to build a satellite. Perhaps the backlog is spelling good news for them, since if the purchasers of those satellites goes bankrupt, which SIRI most definitely will, there are people in line behind them to snap up the satellites being built in progress and modify them for their own purposes.
    The same thing happened to MCI ASkyB, whose birds were eventually purchased by DirecTV even before launch.
    2008 Dec 10 10:06 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Allow me to venture another theory: Space Cadets! There is a large segment of investor out there that believes the space industry is the next computer revolution in 10-15 years. These investors are desperate to invest in this. Unfortunately nearly all of the startup firms on the cutting edge of the effort are private. Until recently space fans flocked to SpaceDev (SPDV.ob), most known for building the rockets that power Virgin Galactic's spaceships.

    Recently however, the founder of SpaceDev, Jim Benson died and his family is selling the company to a private company. Absent this investment avenue Loral probably represents the more affordable publicly traded space company out there. I've seen Loral mentioned on several SPDV message boards.

    2008 Dec 10 10:37 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    I can't provide any light on this, but I have definitely noticed the price rise since this is still on my watch list.

    Speaking as one who used to work at the company, my guess is the ever-persistent takeover rumor. I had assumed their plan was to sell out to someone after they came out of bankruptcy, but that never happened so I sold my position a while back.

    That said, I haven't heard any rumors from my friends who still work there about any takeover, and I generally don't have an optimistic outlook for their business in our current downturn. Satellites cost a lot of money to build, launch, and insure. They pay nothing back until they are in orbit. Not a great business model in a time of tight credit. Then again, they don't have a lot of competition these days in the large commercial satellite manufacturing biz. I'll be watching for some news.
    2008 Dec 10 12:15 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    check the insider buying on lorl. somethin's up!
    2008 Dec 10 02:02 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Remember our last tally was 1.0500B


    Loral input of .1B

    Lets see

    1.05B - .1B = .95B
    Is the estimated savings still .425B

    .95B - .425B = .425B

    Gee that's almost a third of the original....

    Maybe Loral/SiriusXM can give Space Flight Vacations for 50M a pop.
    Send a bus of Twenty Celebs in Orbit (10 to cover cost), return .5B

    .425B -.5B =.075B surplus




    Sorry . . . couldn't resist!
    2008 Dec 10 05:08 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    bababooie...

    Good idea on the celebs space bus.

    First 20 on the bus:

    Oprah
    Tom Cruise
    Matt Lauer
    Al Roker
    Katie Courek
    Richard Shelby
    Ty (the obnoxious guy from that home make-over show)
    All those yentas from The View (5)
    Paulson
    Benanke
    Rod Blagoyovich
    Richard Simmons
    Mylie Cyrus
    Gerorge Bush
    Michael Jackson
    Paris Hilton (sorry Paris)
    Craig Ferguson (and his accent)

    They take off...then something goes horribly wrong, the bus loses it's power and veers off course, pastf the gravity belt and drifts into the nothingness of time and space for eternity. Effectively, these people will then instantly stop jamming the rest of us...

    2008 Dec 11 11:27 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    sl62-
    Oprah would count as two currently. . . Unless Richard Simmons gets a hold of her first.
    2008 Dec 11 12:49 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Too bad the Market Cap is below 1B . . . In addition to a 12/18 deadline.


    According to Sirius XM’s 10Q:
    “…The Loral Credit Agreement contains certain drawing conditions, including a requirement that SIRIUS have a market capitalization of at least $1 billion. Any loans made under the Loral Credit Agreement generally will bear interest at a variable rate equal to three-month LIBOR plus 4.75%….”

    2008 Dec 11 01:02 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    bababooie...

    Good point. But because Miley counts as a half (or Paris if you count half-wit and that she's kind of emaciated), they offset Oprah's two banger (and then some!). I still need all these people on the accidental space bus to enternity lol...

    great idea...
    2008 Dec 11 01:04 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    bababooie...

    Do you really think SIRI would be getting a loan from Loral? I never have nor ever will....
    2008 Dec 11 01:10 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    The money would never come from LORAL. The equity that LORAL provides is nothing more than leverage for financing. The leverage is there if the Market cap is realized. Much like the realized synergies of .425B from the merger.

    SHOW THEM YOU DON'T NEED THE MONEY!
    I purchased a house earlier this year as a rental property. I had to prove that my income alone was adequate for the loan payments. Then they came back and asked for "incidential" information as to comparable rental fees for the comunity. It got to the point where I was almost not interested in the investment anymore and told the lender as such. It was only at that point (two months), that the attorneys started to shuffle the paperwork between all the parties involved. I believe that the re-financing for Sirius is going to be a very similar event.

    To Get Money In today's market you have to meet most of the following criteria:
    1) You don't need the money (Other investment opportunities are
    available)
    2) You can meet loan payments with your Free Cash Flow
    3) Your Co-Signer does not need the money
    4) You have a Illinois Govenor in your pocket
    5) You are part of the financial community (Then no questions asked)
    6) Your Assets have to be four times your loan amount
    2008 Dec 11 02:32 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    bababooie...

    agreed but you forgot #7...

    7. Have a printing press of either dollars or shares! lol
    2008 Dec 11 03:20 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    sl62..................... you must have inadvertantly forgotten Rod Blanko de blank's gold digging wife on your list. What trash, both he and she.................. from the land of Lincoln no less........... What shame for the state, to top off a political history of shame!!! .. killer...................
    2008 Dec 11 05:52 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    killer...

    She'll be sitting on his punk-ass lap! Quite right. Trash. Scary isn't it?

    Hope your trades were good this week. Let's see what Mel and co. have to say. Next week he gets up in front of god and everybody and explains himself. I wish I could be there! This has been a bleeping tragedy on all counts..He's made it twice as tough by showing little concern for his shareholders. Hey, we're tough and can hande it, but a little nod here or there would have been appreciated. Instead, he keeps making bs comments like he just did saying subscribers shouldn't care about losing their fav channels, rather suck it up so he and his board can still have a company to run (so subs can keep enjoying the music that's now been taken away from them, apparently!). WTF is that sh%t?!

    Well, no surprise from my man Mel. Have a good weekend!
    2008 Dec 12 11:05 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    sl62.............. not much to say to that but...................... UNBELIEVABLE!!! And a good weekend to you as well. killer.
    2008 Dec 17 06:28 PM | Link | Reply