Earnings Preview: Ciena

Ciena (CIEN) is expected to report Q4 earnings before market open Thursday, December 11, with a conference call scheduled for 8:30 am ET.

Guidance

The consensus estimate is 5c for EPS and $198.91M for revenue, according to First Call. Guidance from management on the last earnings call was for Q4 revenue of $190M-$210M, below the then consensus of $263.02M.

Analyst Views

On Dec.5, Cowen resumed coverage of Ciena with a Neutral rating. Cowen says its too soon to get constructive on Ciena shares. The firm thinks 2009 consensus numbers remain too high, and to look for estimates to be lowered when the company reports its Q4 results. Cowen looks to get more constructive on shares with a clearer picture of where carrier capex levels will be set for 2009 and where operating margins trough. Morgan Keegan says, poor visibility in the business leaves us cautious and we would not be surprised if management's expectations and street estimates come down for Q1. However, Morgan Keegan envision Ciena's business recovering earlier than other Communications Equipment vendors.

Key issues for the conference call: Forward guidance, details on any cost control efforts, and commentary on the capex spending out look from Ciena's big customers AT&T (T), Verizon Communications (VZ) and Sprint Nextel (S).