The short squeeze I predicted three days ago is under way, helped by a weaker dollar and better stock market sentiment. Russia is preparing to announce that it will work with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to coordinate a reduction in output. (The full article on Russian output cut can be found here.) This is positive news for oil bulls. Oil may continue its upward move to $50 a barrel in the next few sessions.
Oil Volatility Reaches 22-Year High
We have seen high volatility recently in every market, including oil. Options show the highest volatility in oil since 1986, and even though prices have fallen dramatically, we’re still seeing daily ranges that are $3 to $5 a barrel. It`s a trader`s market with fear running high.
Russia May Cut Output
Faced with falling oil prices, Russia is preparing to announce that it will work with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to coordinate a reduction in output, the Minister of Energy said Wednesday. This is the first time that the Kremlin has offered to reduce output.
Price Overshoot to $20? Nonsense
One asset manager from the Bank of China recently said:
Prices tend to overshoot both on the upside and on the downside. In the context of the latest movement $20 is only one standard deviation from $35, which I consider to be the long-term equilibrium price.
That's like Merrill predicting $25 oil. If they had forecasted the oil decline, maybe they wouldn't have needed to sell themselves to Bank of America.
I have to say that these projections seem like those made back when oil was close to $150, which saw oil soon heading to $250. I really don`t think oil will go into the low $30 range, much less to $20. The consensus projection on the Oil Traders Blog points to $53 USD oil in 2009. But the oil market is active and opportunities on both sides of the market are plentiful.