Consensus Crude Oil Estimates

As crazy as the stock market has been this year, trading in oil has been even whackier. Oil started the year around $95, rallied all the way up to $148, and has now collapsed down to the mid-$40s. So where do analysts think the commodity is going from here? Below we highlight consensus median price targets for oil based on estimates from 31 commodity analysts collected by Bloomberg.

As shown, the median estimate for the end of this quarter remains at $66, which is more than $20 above the current price of oil. Good luck with that one! For the end of the first quarter, analysts are collectively looking for a price of $64. By the end of Q3 '09, analysts expect oil to be at $71.5. Expectations are for $83 by the end of 2010, $100 by the end of 2011, and $95 by the end of 2012. Based on these estimates, analysts aren't expecting the speculative high of $145 to be reached at any time over the next four years, but they are expecting a considerable rebound.

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Comments

[TomF75:]

Weren't these the same "experts" who were guaranteeing us $200 oil by the end of the year. I believe these people know what they're talking about as much as I believed them when we were told over and over the "sub-prime crisis is contained" and we're going thru a "soft patch".

2008 Dec 11 03:04 PM

[Ferdinand E...:]

Let's look at the diagram for a few seconds. Oil goes from where it is now up to $100/b, and then down to $95/b.

I'm sorry, but I have to grade that one F - for fruitcake. If it had gone up to 100 and continued up, then I wouldn't bother, but where is the logic in thinking/believing/pre... something that shows oil declining after three or four years. That kind of thing gives forecasting a bad name.

2008 Dec 12 09:43 AM