Where Will Oil Go from Here? Goldman Says $45, Iran Says $100

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 |  Includes: DBO, OIL, USO, VDE, XLE
by: Henrique Simoes

Goldman "Downgrades" Oil to $45

Goldman Sachs, one of the largest energy traders in the markets, lowered its 2009 price forecast for crude oil to $45 a barrel. Goldman Sachs' last estimate for 2009 was 40% higher.

"We revise down our 2009-2011 crude oil price forecasts in view of a more severe than expected deterioration in oil demand globally," Goldman Sachs analysts wrote on the report.

Goldman predicts that crude oil futures will trade at an average of 30 dollars a barrel in the first quarter of 2009. Goldman once was the most bullish investment house on the street. They are throwing the towel on oil now (read full article).

Iran Thinks the "Real Price" of Oil Is $100

Iran's oil minister said he considered the "real price" for a barrel of crude should be more than $100 and a senior Iranian official said OPEC needed to cut oversupply from the market, Iranian media reported on Saturday (read full article). This is what is call wishful thinking.

Oil: Where To?

But where will oil go from here? In the short term, the Oil Traders Blog projection is that oil may rebound a little further, benefiting from the dollar weakness. $50 a barrel is certainly feasible this week.

OPEC should be a non-event. Nobody real believes OPEC might really cut production even if they announce a big cut. They need to sell all the oil they can to balance their budgets.

Disclosure: no positions