Mac Demand May Be Slowing

Is Apple (AAPL) Mac demand slowing down?

It certainly looks that way. As the Wall Street Journal notes in a story for Tuesday’s edition, market research firm NPD reports that Apple Mac units shrank 1% in the month of November versus a year earlier, lagging a 2% rise in overall PC unit growth.

The WSJ story notes that while Apple grew faster than the market in notebooks, it suffered a 35% drop in desktop sales in the month. It’s also worth noting that Apple’s 5% drop in Mac revenue for the month was not as bad as the 11% drop in overall PC revenues for the month. The bigger drop in PC revenues likely reflects the rise of low-cost netbooks: consider that the top 10 best-selling notebooks on Amazon.com includes 7 netbooks from Acer and Asus, one from Samsung, one Mac laptop and the One Laptop Per Child XO laptop.

NPD data also showed a 16% year-over-year drop in iPod units, after a 20% drop in October.

In a research note late Monday, Bank of America’s Scott Craig noted that market share gainers in the month versus October included Toshiba, up 3%, and Acer, up 2%. Losing share were Lenovo, down 3%; Apple, down 2%, and Dell, down 1%.

On Monday, Apple shares fell $3.52, or 3.6%, to $94.75, after the stock was downgraded by Goldman Sachs analyst David Bailey.

Comments

[Hayweed:]

Holding price constant while component prices drop and still selling about what you did last year seems quite good in the economy. Apple has refused to enter the race for the bottom like Dell, HP, Acer and others who are slashing prices in order to get a slight jump in sales while permanently eroding their margins.

2008 Dec 16 02:09 PM

[jenny:]

Despite all this, despite the iPod market being saturated and
Mac sales declining, I think it's still remarkable that Apple is even
able to get close to any of the selling estimate numbers. I believe
the iTouch does have a bright future and at this point its all about
upgrading for Apple consumers. Apple recognizes the slowdown and is
reacting fast (Wal-Mart selling discounted iPhones, etc.) Demand might
be down but investors seem to still be feeling confident in Apple as
sentiment was recently bearish but is beginning to move up. They've
also been forecasted (www.predictwallstreet....) to
close up today and these forecasts have been beating the market by
about 65% lately.

2008 Dec 16 02:28 PM

[Roger Knights:]

Apple is rumored to have a refresh for one of its desktop items, the Mini, ready to announce in January.

2008 Dec 16 05:42 PM

[Pete D.:]

Everybody cites the NPD data, which isn't very accurate. The NPD data doesn't capture online sales. Trust me, the build-to-order online sales for the new macbooks and pros are significant. I just bought a macbook online in November. The Mac numbers are going to be solid when Apple reports.

2008 Dec 17 01:02 AM

[Depressedal...:]

I usually go to our Best Buy about three or four times a year. This year I saw two things that blew my mind! For the first time I saw Apple computers for sale and on display and customers signing up for Apple purchases and Apple Care Plans. The second trend was even more astonishing! Instead of having two long display cases of third-party software for sale, I saw only one display case that was only one half the length of what I saw two years ago!

Do I believe that Apple Computer sales are diminishing? NO! Instead I see it doing slow, but steady growth while the growth/sales of PC's with Vista Software diminishing. The constant threat of ID theft, bots, rootkits and over one million pieces of malware and still growing exponentially are reminders to those with PC's that easy accessability to third-party software and gamers that security from internet suites are both too-expensive and a tendency to not deliver the average PC/laptop owner! Enter the security of Mac computers. While many say there will be a time when there will be more viruses/trojans be written for Mac's, the reality is....So far there hasn't and probably won't ever be! Too much work involved for even the most dedicated hacker! On-line sales where people can call in the Apple store and Best Buy are increasing the numbers of Mac computers substantially! As more and more people get disillusioned with the performace/security of Vista they will search for a more "secure" computer enter Mac and to a lesser degree but growing...open source software and Linux, which is even MORE secure than Mac computers! Don't forget....the recession we are undergoing will depress the overall number of sales...But inspite of this...Apple Computer sales are growing and holding their ground!

2008 Dec 17 11:16 AM

[brewer:]

Apple sales are up over last year, in this economy, versus overall PC sales which have declined, even as they slash prices.

This says nothing of the iPod/iPhone with which Apple is devastating all of the incumbent gadgets. The 'iPod is declining' FUD hasn't caught up with reality--iPod touch is selling like hotcakes.... this their HIGH end model, BTW.

But it wouldn't be an Eric Savitz report if you didn't try to spread FUD about Apple, would it?

2008 Dec 17 12:21 PM