Strategists' 2009 S&P 500 Price Targets

Bloomberg recently surveyed market strategists for their 2009 S&P 500 price targets, and collectively, they're looking for a gain of 21.8% from the index's current price level. As shown below, UBS is the most bullish of the group with a year-end 2009 price target of 1,300 (a 47.2% gain). UBS was the most bullish last year as well with a 2008 price target of 1,700.

Goldman and Strategas are the second most bullish this year with price targets of 1,100. Credit Suisse has a target of 1,050 (for mid-year '09), Citi and HSBC are at 1,000, and Merrill Lynch is at 975. Merrill is the least bullish strategist of those surveyed, but they're still looking for a gain of 10.4% from current levels.

For those looking for direction from these strategists, their 2008 projections should be noted. All were looking for gains this year, and their targets at the start of the year are far above where the S&P 500 is currently trading.

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Comments

[Robert Nabloid:]

I'd like to see how they come up with these projections as that info would be very revealing. Are they expecting the economy to recover? Are they expecting inflation? Are they just being "positive" to encourage people to start spending?

Honestly, without knowing how they came up with these figures, they are just as useless as last years figures, which they are off by about half! Last years "guess" was way off.

2008 Dec 16 05:45 PM

[Archman Inv...:]

If anything, these people prove one thing:
They are bold faced liars who have the luxury of guessing and being wrong, and get paid to boot. God only knows why anyone would give these clowns a cent.

Zero accountability folks.

2008 Dec 16 06:08 PM

[investor88:]

Good to be bullish because that is human nature and in the long term the trend is up. Just be sure not to trip over on the trip to the promised land because a large short term setback may be difficult to recover as "in the long run we are all dead".

2008 Dec 16 06:15 PM

[Roger Knights:]

Inflation, at a high enough pace, could buoy stock prices, regardless of the economy. That's what those predictors may be thinking. And they may be right.

2008 Dec 16 07:01 PM

[Roger Knights:]

Inflation, at a high enough pace, could buoy stock prices, regardless of the economy. That's what those predictors may be thinking. And they may be right.

2008 Dec 16 07:04 PM

[PCScipio:]

I'll have whatever they're smoking.

2008 Dec 16 07:18 PM

[Paul Price:]

Even that most optimistic projection is possible.

After dropping by 50%, a recoupment to only a 25% loss from the previous high would be a 50% gain from the low.

100 => 50 = (-50%)
50 => 75 = + 50%

At 75 the index would still be 25% below the initial starting point
for the two year total period (not including dividends).

2008 Dec 16 08:04 PM

[pdd:]

MPT lives. Why I'll never understand. Fought this 25 years ago, when I was with Kidder Peabody

2008 Dec 16 08:50 PM

[John Lounsbury:]

I have recently read earnings estimates for the S&P 500 (including from Standard & Poors itself) that range from $41 to $50. If these estimates are realized, the PE ratio for the S&P 500 would be between 22 and 26 at the end of 2009. This could only happen if

(1) We are in another boom; or

(2) There is expectation of an imminent boom; or

(3) These analysts are taking halucinagens.

I'll let the reader chose (or propose another possibility).

2008 Dec 16 10:35 PM

[Jackson Cash:]

Complete BS.

"Oh, it's only got one place to go -- up!"

There would be a shred of credibility if someone on the planet thought it could go down!

A waste of time.

2008 Dec 17 12:01 AM

[aarc:]

From a technical point of view (charting), a rally above 1095 is going to break the downward trend momentum on the weekly chart for SnP500 and a rally above 1173 is going to break the downward trend momentum on the monthly chart.

Major question next year that is not on the investor radar yet is the government tax revenue.

Everybody is still looking at the stock markets and company earnings reports for the next 2 quarters which are basically well expected to be horrible given the stock markets performance of late.

What is more important next year will be the tax revenue for the government and it's financial viability. Govt survivability can become the focus much worse than how the private sector is going to survive.

Of course, they can print money. Question is how far and how long can they print money?

2008 Dec 17 01:29 AM

[SJD:]

Analysts have lost credibility big time and rightly so.

2008 Dec 17 11:46 AM