Apple Drops MacWorld: Good Move, But Likely to Start Another Steve Jobs Rumor

Apple (AAPL) has just announced that this January’s MacWorld event will be the company’s last, and that Steve Jobs won’t be giving the event’s much-anticipated keynote (Philip Schiller, Apple’s senior vice president of Worldwide Product Marketing, will be taking his place). The stock is sure to tumble on the news as rumors of Jobs’s health are rekindled, but in reality this move has probably been a long time coming.

MacWorld’s timing as a January event has always been questionable - many consumers have long since learned not to purchase Apple products in the weeks leading up to the event, which likely resulted in lost sales during the holiday shopping season. When Apple has had something major to announce it has managed to totally overshadow the competing Consumer Electronics Show (as they did with the iPhone), but Apple just can’t produce such blockbuster products at regular intervals.

As John Gruber pointed out back in 2002:

“That means every January, and every July, Jobs delivers a keynote, and at each of these keynotes, the Mac community expects to hear about Great New Things. This is doubly troublesome for Apple. For one thing, people have learned not to buy new Macs during the month before each Expo, because there’s a decent chance that something brand new is going to be announced at the upcoming keynote. Obviously, that’s not good for sales.

Worse, however, is that the schedule for keynotes is set in stone: January and July. The schedule for new products, however, is unpredictable. It would be much better for Apple if they could simply announce new products — especially major new product lines — when they’re ready to sell them.”

The move to pull Jobs from the keynote may simply be a way to lower expectations. Apple probably isn’t keen on releasing a big new product in the current economy (assuming it has something ready in the first place), and it would look silly to have Steve Jobs to present a keynote whose highlights were limited to an iTunes Plus update and maybe a Mac Mini (I don’t buy the netbook theory).

So keep your cool. Apple is still on track and Jobs is probably doing just fine. At least I hope he is.

Original post

Comments

[Arbitrage C...:]

All we can do is hope Mr. Jobs is not in great pain. He is proof that American ingenuity still trumps all others. Steve Jobs is a man who will go down with Thomas Edison and hopefully history will remember his great accoplisments not only in technology but how a true blue CEO runs a company. Mr. Jobs took Apple as it was starting to turn brown and mushy and turned it into a shiny sweet investor treat. I have been holding 5000 shares since we hit $16 and now with the split adjustments Mr. Jobs has made me a millionaire and some. Thank You Mr. Jobs and may you find inner peace and love. I hope that you are granted much more time on this Earth but if not know you are loved by almost every rational and reasonable person for your contributions to education, leisure and science. May God Shine on you and your family!

2008 Dec 17 01:41 AM

[Jase:]

Arbitrage Cons.,

Re. "... will go down with Thomas Edison"--that's a bit of a stretch. Taking nothing away from Jobs' ability to dream, design, think, simplify, outsmart, incessantly craft, and relentlessly persist... placing him in the same category as Edison, in my view, is a grossly inaccurate comparison. Names that perhaps ought to accompany Edison (or perhaps names that Edison ought to accompany, in no particular order) might include: Bardeen, Brattain, Shockley, Townes, Schawlow, Maiman, Tesla, Babbage, Turing, S. Christie, J. Fleming, Kemeny, Kurtz--you get the idea, this is a long list.

I acknowledge that my list is comprised of arbitrary names whose contributions vary considerably. Steve Jobs is an entrepreneur, calling him an inventor is unfair to those who truly invent. While Jobs created the first Apple computer, true elegance in computer design was first demonstrated by Jef Raskin. Jef Raskin is the real, long forgotten, creator of the Macintosh computer. Many are surprised to learn that on several occasions Jobs actually attempted to thwart the Macintosh development efforts at Apple.

Yes, Jobs is a vicious CEO and shrewd businessman, an excellent designer, and a master of aesthetics. He is, however, not an inventor.

Glad to hear that you were able to pick up Apple at $16 when it rose from the ashes. I look forward to covering my short AAPL position at around those levels.

2008 Dec 17 03:30 AM

[brewer:]

"I look forward to covering my short AAPL position at around those levels."

Dream on.

2008 Dec 17 12:16 PM

[jenny:]

The Steve Job rumors are never good. Apple leaves too much gray area up for interpretation while the apple fan boys run wild with rumors. Already I watched sentiment drop for AAPL to become more bearish (www.predictwallstreet....) and there down almost 7% today.

2008 Dec 17 01:44 PM

[Jase:]

Dream on? I began my short position at $161 back on September 8th. I've covered only a partial portion of my position (at $86/share; then added to my short again at $112). Do you have any idea of how many longs are trapped above $120 per share? You've had two failed moves to attempt to capture the old floor at $115.44. Go on, pull up a chart of AAPL. Notice the pending death cross of the 200MA over the 600MA? The pissy 50-day moving average is now just north of $100/share. Let me guess, you think the lows were put in at $79.14? You're ready to cite how iPhones sales are such and such, and the monthly revenue from iPhones contracts are going to fatten up that balance sheet, and the future is all lollipops and unicorns and rainbows blah blah. Here's a newflash, homeslice: it's all priced in--that's *why* it traded at $180 to $200 all those months ago. Do yourself a favour: sell your stock or go short. 12-times current forward is at around $60/share--I wouldn't even think about touching AAPL until those levels are reached. Wouldn't surprise me to see it trading in the high 40's or 50's at some point in 2009 on ratings/revenue downgrades. Whatever the case, good luck with your trades.


On Dec 17 12:16 PM brewer wrote:

> "I look forward to covering my short AAPL position at around those
> levels."
>
> Dream on.

2008 Dec 17 02:34 PM