Thursday Outlook: All Petered Out

June 10, 2009



President: Mr. Gardiner, do you agree with Ben, or do you think that we can stimulate growth through temporary incentives?
[Long pause]
Chance the Gardener: As long as the roots are not severed, all is well. And all will be well in the garden.
President: In the garden.
Chance the Gardener: Yes. In the garden, growth has it seasons. First comes spring and summer, but then we have fall and winter. And then we get spring and summer again.
President: Spring and summer.
Chance the Gardener: Yes.
President: Then fall and winter.
Chance the Gardener: Yes.
Benjamin Rand: I think what our insightful young friend is saying is that we welcome the inevitable seasons of nature, but we're upset by the seasons of our economy.
Chance the Gardener: Yes! There will be growth in the spring!
Benjamin Rand: Hmm!
Chance the Gardener: Hmm!
President: Hm. Well, Mr. Gardiner, I must admit that is one of the most refreshing and optimistic statements I've heard in a very, very long time.
[Benjamin Rand applauds]
President: I admire your good, solid sense. That's precisely what we lack on Capitol Hill.

Then from our leaders at the Fed from their Beige Book report came this:

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The economy's sharp downhill slide eased in the late spring and hopes for future business activity improved, suggesting that the worst of the recession has passed.

A Federal Reserve snapshot of economic conditions issued Wednesday found that five of the Fed's 12 regions said that the "downward trend is showing signs of moderating."

In addition, "several" regions said that their expectations of future business activity have improved, although they don't see a "substantial increase" through the end of the year, according to the Fed report. In the last survey, several regions simply noted signs of some stability at low levels.

Altogether, the assessments of businesses on the front lines of the economy appeared to be slightly better than those they provided in the previous report issued in mid-April.”

You know the Titanic’s downward trend ended when it hit bottom.

Some things are just too hard to pass up.

Stocks gapped higher at the open encouraged by the rise in commodity markets until they gave that some second thoughts. In the meantime the Treasury had bonds to sell and supply is always a negative factor to one degree or another.

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And the Summation Index from Decision Point is still much overbought as it measures accumulated breadth. Readings can reach over 1200 and endure longer than most expect.

























































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