Citigroup Offers Bullish Trades For Shorts Off Earnings-Driven Pre-Bell Gains And Declines

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 |  About: Citigroup Inc. (C)
by: Midnight Trader

Citigroup (NYSE:C) lies strictly in the short camp regardless of the direction it takes in its post-earnings pre-market trade on Thursday, Jan. 17. The stock has a strong tendency to add to any earnings-driven pre-market declines in the follow-on regular session, and if it gains in pre-bell action it consistently reverses direction in bell-to-bell action.

Citi has recorded an earnings-driven pre-market decline in 15 of the last 32 quarters tracked in our MT Pro database. In 10 of those 15 quarters, or about 66% of the time, Citi has added to its downside momentum in the following regular session. A solid short bet heading into Thursday's earnings report.

On the plus-side, Citi has recorded an earnings-driven pre-market gain in 17 of the last 32 quarters in our database. In 13 of those 17 quarters, or 76% of the time, Citi has narrowed or reversed its pre-bell gains in the following regular session, still a strong bet on the short side on the heels of a morning pop higher.

Analysts polled by Capital IQ expect Citi to report a Q4 profit of $0.96 per share on revenue of $18.85 billion.

Here's the history:

  • On Oct. 15, 2012, Citi advanced 1.8% in pre-bell trade after topping Q3 expectations. The stock firmed higher in that day's regular session, ending up 5.4%.
  • On July 13, 2012, Citi gained 3.6% in pre-bell action after beating Q2 earnings estimates. It lost the bulk of those gains in that day's regular session, ending up 0.6%.
  • On April 16, 2012, Citi advanced 2.3% in pre-market trade after topping Q1 expectations. The stock narrowed its gains in that day's regular session, ending up 1.7%.
  • On Jan. 17, 2012, Citi declined 4.8% in pre-market trade after posting Q4 results shy of expectations. The stock tumbled lower in that day's regular session, ending down 8.2%.
  • On Oct. 17, 2011, Citi advanced 1.8% in pre-bell action after beating Q3 expectations. The stock reversed direction in that day's regular session, ending down 1.6%.
  • On July 15, 2011, Citi jumped 3% in pre-market trade after beating Q2 estimates. The stock lost its upside momentum in that day's regular session, ending down 1.6%.
  • On April 18, 2011, Citi slipped 0.2% in pre-bell action missing on revenue and topping Q1 earnings estimates. The stock narrowed that decline in the follow-on regular session, closing at the flatline.
  • On Jan. 18, 2011, Citi slumped 3.8% in pre-market trade after missing Q4 expectations. The stock headed further south in that day's regular session, sliding 6.4% by the closing bell.
  • On Oct. 18, 2010, Citi advanced 1.5% in pre-bell action on the back of better-than-expected Q3 earnings. The stock firmed higher in that day's regular session, ending up 5.5%.
  • On July 16, 2010, Citigroup declined 2.6% in pre-market action after beating Q2 earnings expectations and meeting revenue estimates. The stock headed deeper into the red in that day's regular session, ending down 6.2%.
  • On April 19, 2010, Citi advanced 2.4% in pre-bell trade after beating Q1 expectations. The stock added to its upside in that day's regular session, ending up 7%.
  • On Jan. 19, 2010, Citi shares declined 2.6% in pre-market trade after reporting a steep loss and a year-over-year decline in revenue. The stock reversed course in that day's regular session, ending up 3.5%.
  • On Oct. 15, 2009, Citi shed 4.2% in pre-market trade despite posting better-than-expected Q3 results. The stock added to its downside in that day's regular session, ending off 5%.
  • On July 17, 2009, Citi jumped 4.9% in pre-market trade after reporting a swing to a Q2 profit on higher year-over-year revenue. The stock failed to hold its upside move in the follow-on regular session, ending July 17 bell-to-bell action down 0.3%.
  • On April 17, 2009, Citi firmed 3.2% in pre-market trade after posting better-than-expected results. It lost its upside momentum in the follow-on regular session, ending bell-to-bell action down 8.9%.
  • On Jan. 16, 2009, Citi jumped 8.8% in pre-bell trade despite reporting a loss. The stock turned south in that day's regular session, losing 8.6% by the closing bell.
  • On Oct. 16, 2008, Citi shed 1.4% in pre-bell trade after reporting a narrower-than-expected loss. The stock moved deeper in the red in the following regular session, ending down 3.8%.
  • In the July 18, 2008, pre-market session, the stock jumped 10.1% after beating with a narrower-than-expected loss. The issue was up a slightly slimmer 7.6% at the close of regular trading later that day.
  • On April 18, 2008, Citigroup advanced 7.6% in pre-market trade despite coming in with a loss deeper than Street estimates. The gain was cut back in the following regular session, ending up 4.5%.
  • On Jan. 15, 2008, Citigroup slid 2.6% in pre-market trade after announcing a multi-billion dollar loss, missing revenue estimates and disclosing a significant outside investment. The declines piled higher in that day's regular session, with Citigroup ending the day down 7.3%.
  • On Oct. 15, 2007, the stock fell 1.6% during pre-market trading after C reported a sharp drop in EPS over a year ago but sales that beat Street estimates. The stock fell 3.4% during regular trading that day.
  • On July 20, 2007, C advanced 0.7% in pre-market trade after the company reported Q2 results that topped the Street consensus. It lost this early upside in the regular session, ending the day down 0.7%.
  • In April 16, 2007's pre-market session, C inched up 1.3% after topping Q1 estimates. Shares extended those gains in the regular session, closing up 2.5%.
  • On Jan. 19, 2007, Citigroup shed 0.5% in pre-market trade despite the company's better-than-expected Q4 results. The stock clawed its way higher in that day's regular session, rising a slim 0.2% by the closing bell.
  • On Oct. 19, 2006, Citigroup slipped 0.8% in pre-market trade after the company posted flat year-over-year quarterly revenue growth. The downside narrowed slightly between the bells as Citi ended the regular session off 0.6%.
  • On July 17, 2006, Citigroup lost 1.4% in pre-market trade after the company missed Wall Street's earnings expectations by a penny. That downside saw deeper movement south in the regular session, with Citigroup declining 2.5%.
  • On April 17, 2006, Citigroup edged up 0.7% in pre-bell trade after the company topped earnings expectations and approved up to an additional $10 billion in share repurchases. The stock barely clung to those gains in the regular session, ending the day up a slimmer 0.6%.
  • On Jan. 20, 2006, Citigroup declined 1.3% in pre-market trade after the company missed Q4 earnings expectations. Sellers piled into the issue in that day's regular session - sending it down a more aggressive 4.6%.
  • On Oct. 17, 2005, Citigroup advanced 1% in pre-bell trading after the company beat Q3 expectations. The plus-side failed to hold through the regular session, and Citigroup ended the day down 0.5%.
  • On July 18, 2005 Citigroup shed 1.3% in pre-market trade after the company missed earnings expectations. It added to its downside between the bells on July 18, sliding 3% by the close.
  • On April 15, 2005 Citigroup gained 1.4% in pre-market activity after the company beat on EPS but missed on revenue. It cut that gain in half in the regular session, closing the day up 0.7%.
  • On Jan. 20, 2005 Citigroup edged down 0.7% in early morning action after the company beat expectations by a penny. That decline narrowed a bit between the bells and Citigroup ended the day's regular session off 0.5%.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.