The FX market continues being dominated by moves in the yen and the Swiss franc, with the European shared currency largely in range-mode. The U.S. Dollar had a decent performance on Wednesday, trying to follow the JPY, CHF tail.
In Europe, in contrast to Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean Claude-Juncker's concerns over the hefty levels of the euro, the ECB's Nowotny said that the euro exchange rate is not a great concern right now. This resulted in a short-lived bounce which failed to have follow through.
Westpac strategist Sean Callow commented on Mr. Nowotny's verbal intervention, saying:
This is completely consistent with ECB president [Mario] Draghi's comments last week. So the ECB is on the same page; Eurogroup chairman Juncker is the one 'off message'. Nowotny also said it was a positive sign that banks were replaying their LTRO loans early. Of course this means shrinkage of the ECB balance sheet, another EUR positive as money printing continues elsewhere.
Kathy Lien, co-founder at BKassetmanagement, shares her view on the state of affairs in the U.S., noting that
a number of U.S. economic reports were released and more is expected on Thursday but none of these reports including retail sales had a lasting impact on the dollar and that's because they did not improve or deteriorate enough to change the Federal Reserve's views on monetary policy.
Fundamentals aside, the EUR/USD technical reading has worsened in the last 24 hours, as the spot rate continues to show a heavy tone along the 1.3250 support line, one that if taken out, may encourage sellers to set deeper targets on Thursday. Today, the calendar is clear of high volatile indicators, thus giving more credibility to the technical picture in the chart.
According to Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXstreet.com,
buyers continue now aligned around the 1.3250 area, with stops gathering right below: if broken, 1.3180 is next bearish target, while steady gains above 1.3320 will reduce chances of a slide, with some limited gains afterwards.
Offering a second view on the pair, Sean Lee, founder at FXWW, notes:
I very much expect this trend to continue for the next few sessions. Sovereign and real-money buyers are reported at 1.3250/60, with plenty of trailing stops now below 1.3240.