Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) has a history of favoring the short side off its earnings-driven after-hours trade. The stock has a tendency to reverse or narrow its earnings-driven after-hours gains in follow-on regular session trade.
INTC is a stock for longs to be wary of in the off-hours. It has advanced in the after-hours in 21 of the last 35 quarters we've tracked. However, it saw that advance reverse or narrow in next day trade in 17 of those quarters, or 81% of the time.
The stock has recorded 14 quarters in which it posted an earnings-driven after-hours decline. In five of those events it recorded a more aggressive downside move the following regular session. The historical data on the downside is recently leaning toward reversals, opening potential opportunities for longs.
INTC is expected to report a Q4 profit of $0.49 per share on revenue of $13.52 billion, according to Capital IQ.
Here's the stock's historical performance data:
- On Oct. 16, 2012, INTC declined 3.5% in after-hours action after topping Q3 expectations but also noting it expected the PC business growth in Q4 to be half the seasonal norm. The stock narrowed its downside the next day, ending off 2.5%.
- On July 17, 2012, INTC edged down 0.9% in after-hours trade after meeting Q2 expectations. The stock reversed direction the next day, closing the July 18 regular session up 3.2%.
- On April 17, 2012, INTC declined 2.8% in night trade after beating on Q1 and setting in-line Q2 guidance. The downside narrowed the next day, with the stock closing off 1.8% in the April 18 regular session.
- On Jan. 19, 2012, INTC edged up 0.5% in after-hours action after topping Q4 estimates. It moved further in the green the next day, closing the Jan. 20 regular session up 2.9%.
- On Oct. 18, 2011, INTC gained 3.6% in evening trade on the back of better-than-expected results and guidance. The stock narrowed its advance slightly the next day, closing the Oct. 19 regular session up 3.5%.
- On July 20, 2011, the stock fell 2.1% even after a Q2 earnings beat. Shares eased a leaner 0.8% the following day.
- On April 19, 2011, INTC gained 5% in after-hours trade after topping Q1 estimates and setting its Q2 revenue view above the Street's expectations. The stock added to its upside the following day, closing the April 20 regular session up 7.8%.
- On Jan. 13, 2011, INTC advanced 2.5% in evening trade after beating Q4 estimates and setting its Q1 revenue guidance above Street estimates. The stock reversed direction the following day, closing the Jan. 14 regular session down 1%.
- On Oct. 12, 2010, INTC edged up 0.6% in after-hours trade after beating Q3 estimates and setting its guidance in a range that straddled the Street view. The stock lost its upside the following day, closing the Oct. 13 regular session down 2.6%.
- On July 13, 2010, INTC charged 8.1% higher in after-hours trade after reporting better-than-expected results and guidance. The stock saw most of its gains evaporate in next-day trade, ending the July 14 regular session up 1.6%.
- On April 13, 2010, INTC advanced 3.7% in after-hours trade after beating Q1 expectations and setting its Q2 revenue view above Street estimates. The stock cut its upside slightly the next day, closing the April 14 regular session up 3.3%.
- On Jan. 14, 2010, INTC edged up 0.8% in after-hours action following better-than-expected Q4 results and in-line revenue guidance. The stock lost its gain the following day, closing the Jan. 15 regular session down 3.1%.
- On Oct. 13, 2009, INTC jumped 4.5% in after-hours trade after blowing past Q3 expectations. The stock lost a good chunk of its gains the following day, ending the Oct. 14 regular session up 1.6%.
- On July 14, 2009, INTC advanced 7.3% in after-hours trade after the company blew past Q2 expectations and set its Q3 revenue guidance above the Street view. The stock narrowed its gain slightly the next day, ending the July 15 regular session up 7.2%.
- On April 14, 2009, the stock fell 5.6% in extended-hours trading after INTC beat with EPS but said it expected flat sequential revenue. Shares fell a slimmer 2.4% the next day.
- On Jan. 15, 2009, the stock gained 3.8% in the extended-hours session after INTC meets with Q4 results. The gain was trimmed just slightly and shares closed up 3.4% during regular trading the following day.
- On Oct. 14, 2008, INTC advanced 4.5% in after-hours trade after beating on earnings, meeting on revenue, and guiding revenue in a range that straddled the then-current Street view. The stock recorded a sharp reversal the next day, closing the Oct. 15 regular session down 5.9%.
- On July 15, 2008, INTC edged up 0.4% in evening trade after beating on Q2 and setting its guidance in line to above expectations. It managed to eke out a higher gain the next day, rising 1% by the regular session close on July 16.
- On April 15, 2008, INTC jumped 7.9% in after-hours action after posting better-than-expected Q1 results and in-line guidance. The gain was more subdued the following day, with INTC closing the April 16 regular session up 5.8%.
- On Jan. 15, 2008, INTC dropped 14.3% during evening trading after INTC missed with Q4 estimates and guided for Q1 sales in line with the Street view. The loss was reined in slightly the next day and INTC closed down 12.3%.
- On Oct. 16, 2007, INTC gained 5% in evening activity after beating Q3 estimates and forecasting Q4 above Street views. Shares, though, lost a bit of ground the next day, ending the day session up 4.8%.
- On July 17, 2007, INTC slipped 4.6% in night trade despite topping Q2 sales estimates and offering in line guidance. Shares eased a bit more the next day to end the regular session down 4.8%.
- On April 17, 2007, INTC edged up 2% in after hours when the company met Q1 expectations and guided Q2 sales mostly below forecasts. Shares pared those gains the next day, closing the regular session up 1.7%.
- On January 16, 2007, INTC dropped 3.8% in evening trade despite beating Q4 estimates and offering Q1 sales guidance in line with Street views. Shares eased a bit more the next day, ending the regular session down 5.6%.
- On Oct. 17, 2006, INTC edged up 0.9% in night trade after beating Q3 estimates and offering Q4 guidance that was in line with expectations. The shares inched higher during the next day's regular hours trading to close up 1%.
- On July 19, 2006, INTC eased 1.4% in after-hours trade when the company missed Q2 sales estimates and guided for Q3 revenues to be below Street views. Shares tumbled further the next day, closing the regular session down 7.5%.
- On April 19, 2006, INTC edged up 1% in evening trade when the company topped Q1 estimates but set lower Q2 and FY06 sales guidance. Its shares dipped the next day, closing the regular session down 0.5%.
- On January 17, 2006, INTC slid 9% in night trade after missing Q4 EPS estimates and guiding for Q1 sales to be below Street consensus. The shares fell further the next day, ending regular hours down 11.5%.
- On Oct. 18, 2005, INTC shed 3% in after-hours trade after the company beat expectations and guided in line to mostly lower on its forward revenue outlook. It saw much of that downside pared back in the Oct. 19 regular session, eventually ending the day down a mere 0.1%.
- On July 19, 2005, INTC fell 4.4% after hours after Q2 sales met and EPS topped Street targets. The stock matched that decline in the July 20 regular session, also falling 4.4%.
- On April 19, 2005 INTC shares advanced 3.2% in after-hours trade after the company beat expectations and guided sales in line with estimates. It saw the bulk of those gains evaporate between the bells on April 20 as INTC managed a mere 0.1% rise by the closing bell.
- On Jan. 11, 2005 INTC added 3% in night trade after the company reported better-than-expected Q4 results. The upside was cut back modestly the next day as the stock closed the Jan. 12 regular session up 2.7%.
- Back on the night of Oct. 12, 2004, INTC added 3.7% in after-hours trade after the company beat Q3 expectations and guided its Q4 sales in a range surrounding the Street view. INTC ended the Oct. 13 regular session with a narrower 3.5% gain.
- INTC reported revenue shy of expectations the night of July 13, 2004, and the stock tumbled 4.7% in that night's after-hours trade. It saw more aggressive selling in the following day's regular session, ultimately ending the July 14 regular session down 10.5%.
- Finally, back on April 13, 2004, INTC beat expectations and issued in-line guidance, and the stock closed evening play down 1.5%. It ended the following day's trade off a narrower 1%.
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.