American Express (NYSE:AXP) is due with its Q4 results in today's after-hours, and analysts polled by Capital IQ expect the company to report a profit of $1.09 per share on revenue of $8.17 billion.
AXP just favors widening between the sessions in its long-term performance following earnings evenings, adding to its evening trade in next-day action 12 times and reversing between the sessions eight times in the data we've collected.
Longs will find in AXP a better track record of expanded upside post-earnings moves. Looking deeper into the performance data, AXP has seen an after-hours gain in five of the 20 quarters we've tracked, and in each instance, the stock has added to its gains in next-day action.
In the 15 quarters where the stock saw an earnings-driven after-hours decline, it reversed direction in the following regular session in eight of those sessions.
- On Oct. 17, 2012, AXP dipped 0.4% in evening trade after meeting on Q3 EPS and coming in shy on revenue. The stock moved lower the next day, closing the Oct. 18 regular session off 2.9%.
- On July 18, 2012, AXP dropped 1% in night trade after beating Q2 earnings estimates but coming in shy on revenue. The stock headed deeper south the next day, ending the July 19 regular session off 3.5%.
- On April 18, 2012, AXP dipped 0.2% in evening trade after reporting a year-over-year improvement in Q1 results. The stock moved deeper in the red the next day, ending the April 19 regular session down 0.8%.
- On Jan. 19, 2012, AXP declined 2.2% in after-hours trade after missing revenue expectations but also beating on earnings. It narrowed its downside the next day, closing the Jan. 20 regular session down 1.8%.
- On Oct. 19, 2011, the stock eased 0.3% after a Q3 beat. Shares gained 0.1% during the next day's regular session.
- On July 20, 2011, AXP slipped 0.6% in night trade after topping Q2 estimates. It reversed direction the next day, ending the July 21 regular session up 0.9%.
- On April 20, 2011, the stock fell 2% in evening trading after an earnings beat. Shares recovered to edge up 0.2% the next day.
- On Jan. 24, 2011, the stock fell 1.3% in extended-hours trading after the company reported results largely in line with the Street view. Shares fell 2.1% the next day.
- On Oct. 21, 2010, AXP declined 1% in after-hours trade after topping Q3 expectations. The stock added to its downside the next day, closing the Oct. 22 regular session down 3%.
- On July 22, 2010, AXP slipped 0.9% in after-hours action after beating on earnings and meeting on revenue. The stock reversed direction the following day, closing the July 23 regular session up 3.7%.
- On April 22, 2010, the stock gained 1.4% in evening trading after the company reported a sharp rise in income compared to the year-ago quarter. Shares were up 2.7% the next day.
- On Jan. 21, 2010, AXP slipped 2% in evening trade despite beating Q4 estimates. The stock headed deeper south the following day, closing the Jan. 22 regular session down 8.4%.
- On Oct. 22, 2010, the stock fell 1.2%, reversing an initial firmer trade that followed an earnings beat. Shares tumbled a wider 5.1% the next day.
- On July 23, 2009, AXP declined 4.4% in after-hours trade after reporting a year-over-year decline in earnings and missing revenue expectations. The stock cut its downside in the July 24 regular session, ending up 0.2%.
- On April 23, 2009, AXP advanced 7.1% in evening trade after beating earnings expectations and meeting sales estimates. The stock soared the following day, closing the April 24 regular session up 20.6%.
- On Jan. 26, 2009, the stock rose 2.1% during extended-hours trading as the firm just missed with Q4 EPS. Shares jumped 9.7% the next day.
- On Oct. 20, 2008, AXP advanced 6.3% in after-hours trade after topping earnings expectations. It added to its upside in the Oct. 21 regular session, ending the day up 8.3%.
- On July 21, 2008, AXP tumbled 11% in night trade after missing earnings estimates. It cut its downside in the July 22 regular session, ending the day with a 7.1% decline.
- On April 24, 2008, AXP gained 3.8% in evening action after beating EPS estimates by three cents. The stock firmed even higher in the April 25 regular session, closing the day with a 5.7% advance.
- On Jan. 28, 2008, AXP shed 2.6% in evening trade after meeting earnings expectations. It recorded a sharp reversal in the Jan. 29 regular session, ending the day up 0.8%.
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.