2009 Dow Projections

The Dow started the year at 13,043 and is currently down 35% year to date. Below we highlight a chart that gives investors some perspective on where the index would stand at the end of next year based on various percentage gains or losses. Because the index is down so much, a gain of even 30% in 2009 would still leave the Dow 2,000 points below where it started 2008. A gain of 20% would put the index at 10,220, and a gain of 10% would only get it to 9,368.

On the downside, a 10% decline in '09 would leave the Dow at 7,665. A decline of 20% would put the index at 6,813, and another 30% loss would leave the Dow at a scary level of 5,961. If the index has another 35% loss, it would stand at 5,536 at the end of 2009. For the index to get back to where it stood at the start of '08, it needs to gain 53%.

click to enlarge

Comments

[investor88:]

So there you go, +/- 30-% = Dow 11k to 6k. A reasonable range of possibilities but Dow may be nearer to 6k in a year's time if you think the cup is half empty.

2008 Dec 23 08:11 AM

[Stock Trade...:]

With unemployment rising, more possible bank write downs, continuing deflation, consumer credit card concerns and commercial mortgage market concerns all still looming, I will have to say the possibility is leaning towards the downside for a year from now. We will have to keep a close eye on the different scenarios as they come about in 2009.

2008 Dec 23 11:40 AM

[Urbane Gori...:]

If you believe that a trend continues in it's prior direction, 6000 would be the more obvious choice.... jegan

2008 Dec 23 05:24 PM

[y3115y:]

We are pushed to buy stocks because stocks' average yield is 3% instead treasury 1%.

2008 Dec 23 09:50 PM

[UteFan:]

Get your popcorn ready!

2008 Dec 24 11:45 AM