Seeking Alpha
Recommended for you:
Dividend investing, growth, momentum
Profile| Send Message|
( followers)  

Monthly pay (MoPay) dividend dog stock lists reviewed in June and July prompted reader suggestions to expand the stocks list to include funds, trusts, and partnerships. A list of MoPay equities to buy and hold in October resulted from reader additions supplemented with a high yield collection from here. Thereafter the docile, sleeping dogs list was supplemented by an upside potential article in October and a upside vs. buy and hold in November. Factoring December reader comments and another list, this article compares and contrasts January stocks (looking for their upside potential) against high yield (and higher risk) buy and hold fund, trust and partnership candidates.

The Monthly Pay Dividend Advantage

Quarterly and annual pay dividend stock owners anxiously await announcements from a firm, fund, or analyst to learn if their next dividend will be higher, lower, or paid at all. Monthly pay stocks, funds, trusts, and partnerships inform the holder every four and one third weeks by check or statement. If the equity reduces or suspends a payment, the holder can sell out of the investment immediately to cut future losses.

Dogs of the Index Metrics Found Bargains

For this article, 27 dividend equities plus 30 funds and trusts were culled from over 400 entities paying monthly returns. These were ranked as of January 15-16, 2013 using the two key dog performance metrics: (1) stock price; (2) annual dividend. Dividing the annual dividend by the price declared the percentage yield by which each dividend dog stock was ranked.

Historically dividend dog investors utilized this ranking system to select portfolios of five or ten stocks in any one index, sector, survey, or list to trade. They awaited the results from their investments in the lowest priced, highest yielding stocks and prayed that the price of every stock they now owned climbed higher (having locked in a high yield percentage at purchase).

Dogs of the index strategy, popularized by Michael B. O'Higgins in the book "Beating The Dow" (HarperCollins, 1991), revealed how high yielding stocks whose prices increase (and whose dividend yields therefore decrease) can be sold off once each year to sweep gains to reinvest the seed money into higher yielding stocks in the same index. Prior to the publication of the O'Higgins book, Dow dogs were known by some market watchers as "fallen angels."

Monthly Pay Dividend Stocks

The ten monthly dividend equities showing the best yields In January represented three of nine market sectors. Top dog stock as revealed by Yahoo Finance data was one of seven financial firms, Javelin Mortgage Investment Corp. (NYSE:JMI). The other five financial firms placed second, fourth, fifth, sixth, eighth and tenth: Armour Residential REIT (NYSE:ARR); Full Circle Capital Corp. (NASDAQ:FULL); Prospect Capital Corporation (NASDAQ:PSEC); Fifth Street Finance (NASDAQ:FSC); Gladstone Capital Corporation (NASDAQ:GLAD); Horizon Technology Finance Corp. (NASDAQ:HRZN), a newly minted MoPay dog suggested by a reader. Two utilities made the top ten MoPay stock list in third and ninth places, Just Energy Group Inc. (NYSE:JE), and Atlantic Power Corporation (NYSE:AT). The remaining seventh slot in the top ten was filled by basic materials concern Pengrowth Energy (NYSE:PGH).

Dividend vs. Price Results

Relative strengths for the top ten MoPay dividend dog stocks by yield was graphed below as of January 16, 2013. Ten periods of historic projected annual dividend history from $1000 invested in the ten highest yielding stocks and the total single share prices of those ten stocks created the data points for each period shown in blue for dividend and green for price.

(click to enlarge)

Actionable Conclusion One: MoPay DiviDog Stocks Bearish to Mixed

Charts displayed MoPay dividend dog stocks in a mixed bear market pattern. Since February 2012 dividend from $1000 invested in each of the top ten stocks jumped 20% while aggregate single share price of the ten for nine periods declined 14.4%. Most recently dividend declined 4.4% as price also went down 7% from November/December to January.

Actionable Conclusion Two: Analysts Forecast 2014 MoPay DiviDog Stock Net Gains over 26%

Top ten dogs on the MoPay stock list were graphed below to show relative strengths by dividend and price as of January 16, 2013 and those projected by analyst mean price target estimates to January 16 2014.

Historic prices and actual dividends paid from $1000 invested in the ten highest yielding stocks and the aggregate single share prices of those ten stocks created the data points for 2013. Projections based on estimated increases in dividend amounts from $1000 invested in the ten highest yielding stocks and aggregate one year analyst mean target prices as reported by Yahoo Finance created the 2014 data points in blue for dividend and green for price. Note: one year target estimated prices below current price were not included.

(click to enlarge)

Charting MoPay DiviDog Stock Upsides

Ten equities paying out top monthly dividend yields were ranked using the two key dog performance metrics: (1) stock price; (2) annual dividend. Dividing the annual dividend by the price declared the percentage yield by which each dividend dog stock was primarily ranked. (3) One year mean target price estimates by analysts flagged six equities showing higher prices for 2013.

A hypothetical $1000 investment in each equity was divided by the current share price to find a number of shares purchased. The number of shares was multiplied by projected annual per share dividend amounts to find a dividend return amount. Thereafter one year mean target prices multiplied by the number of shares supplemented the dividend amount minus a flat $20 broker fee to determine a net gain amount for the top five stocks showing upside price gains into 2013.

For the coming year Yahoo Finance projected a 8.8% lower dividend from $1000 invested in each stock within this MoPay group while aggregate single share price for the ten was projected by analysts to increase by 10.6%.

The number of analysts contributing to the mean target price estimate for each stock is noted in the far right column on the charts. Three to nine analysts were considered optimal for a higher probability projection estimate.

Net gains from five probable profit generating trades were revealed by Yahoo Finance for January 2014:

Armour Residential REIT netted $244.92 (24.5%), based on mean target price estimates from eight analysts.

Fifth Street Finance Corporation netted $129.20 (12.9%), based on estimates from nine analysts.

Pengrowth Energy netted $1157.06 (115.7%), based on estimates from three analysts.

Atlantic Power Corporation netted $271.49 (27%), based on estimates from three analysts.

Horizon Technology Finance Corp. netted $207.36 (20.7%) to 2014, based on estimates from three analysts.

The total 2014 net gain in dividend and price for all ten MoPay top dog stocks was projected as 26.1% from $10k invested.

Monthly Pay Dividend Funds and Trusts

(click to enlarge)

The thirty top monthly dividend paying (MoPay) funds and trusts listed above were culled from over 400 candidates then ranked by yields calculated as of December 19 to determine the Top Ten.

Ten monthly dividend funds and trusts showing the biggest yields for January featured ten funds and no trusts. The top three dog funds as revealed by Yahoo Finance data were by Cornerstone: Cornerstone Total Return Fund Inc. (NYSEMKT:CRF); Cornerstone Progressive Return Fund (NYSEMKT:CFP); Cornerstone Strategic Value Fund (NYSEMKT:CLM). An Alpine funds was in fourth position by yield, Alpine Total Dynamic Dividend Fund (NYSE:AOD). Two AGIC funds placed fifth and seventh: AGIC Convertible and Income Fund II (NYSE:NCZ); AGIC Convertible & Income Fund (NYSE:NCV). Two PIMCO funds placed sixth and tenth in the yield rankings: PIMCO High Income Fund (NYSE:PHK); PIMCO Global Stocks PLUS & Income Fund (NYSE:PGP). The balance of the top ten funds and trusts were: MFS Intermediate High Income Fund (NYSE:CIF) in eighth; ING Global Equity Dividend & Premium Opportunity fund (NYSE:IGD) was ninth.

Fund & Trust Dividend vs. Price Results

Below relative strengths for the top ten MoPay Dividend F&T Dogs by yield was graphed as of January 15, 2013 and compared to those of the Dow. Ten periods of historic projected annual dividend history from $1000 invested in the ten highest yielding equities and the total single share prices of those ten equities created the data points for each period shown in blue for dividends and green for price.

(click to enlarge)

Actionable Conclusion Three: MoPay Top Ten DiviDog Funds and Trusts Less Bearish; Dow Dogs Chased by Bull

The charts showed MoPay dividend dog funds and trusts in a mixed bear market pattern. Since February projected dividend from $1000 invested in each of the top ten funds and trusts jumped 50.5% while aggregate single share price of the ten over the same period declined 31.1%.

Over the past month, dividend declined 9.9% while price slid 3.7%. The gap between aggregate single share price sinking beneath rising projected dividend from $1000 invested in those ten equities shrank from 1713% in November/December to 1597% in January.

Since February the top ten Dow dogs projected dividend from $1000 invested in each pup decreased 1.1% while aggregate single share price sank 6.9%. Since the data source for Dow dividend indexArb.com anticipates future increases, Dow dog dividend kept a more level pace than price. The most recent gap for the Dow shows aggregate single share price again topping dividend from $k invested in each of the top ten dogs by 5.6% renewing an overbought condition.

As of January 15, the top MoPay fund and trust Dogs showed $1019 or 253.6% more dividends (with equally bigger risk) at a $341.90 or 80.3% lower aggregate single share price than the Dow top ten.

Actionable Conclusion Four: Buy and Hold Monthly Dividend Paying Funds And Trusts, If You Dare

Stock analysts don't hazard guesses as to when or how fund prices will rise. They are paid to gauge individual stocks, and a few trusts and partnerships. Hence this monthly pay F&T dog diligence only revealed a list of funds and trusts to buy and hold if you dare. But the risk is dropping.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed to constitute investment advice. Nothing contained herein shall constitute a solicitation, recommendation or endorsement to buy or sell any security. Prices and returns on equities in this article except as noted are listed without consideration of fees, commissions, taxes, penalties, or interest payable due to purchasing, holding, or selling same.

Source: Monthly Pay Dividend Dogs: January Stocks Vs. Funds And Trusts