VIX: Holiday Lull in Volatility

The VIX has been steadily declining during the month of December, from the high 60s on the first day of the month to the neighborhood of 42 as I write this.

Clearly the extraordinary measures taken by the government to pump liquidity into the system have been responsible for some of the shrinking volatility, but since I often talk about the holiday effect on volatility and frequently receive questions on the subject, I thought it would be a good day to share some of my research on the subject.

Since 1990, the month of December has averaged 21.05 trading days. The chart below captures each of those 21 trading days from 1990-2007 in composite form, with the mean for all December VIX values set at 100. In the chart, the pattern of decreasing volatility is most evident from the middle of the month to just before Christmas, during which period volatility drops from 2.4% above the December average (10th trading day) to 4.8% below the December average (17th trading day).

For the record, Tuesday is the 17th trading day of December, which makes the the historical low point in volatility for December.

I will not go so far as to say the that calendar suggests Tuesday is likely to be the last time the VIX dips under 42 for awhile, but those with an interest in historical context may wish to prepare for an increase in volatility, as the holiday ‘calendar reversion’ effect wears off.

[source: VIX and More]

Comments

[Moon Kil Woong:]

I have a theory, mind you take it with a grain of salt. I think the market participants have come to realize we are in a downward sku environment. Unlike an upward sku environment when the market is favored to rise gradually with a smaller percentage chance for sharper declines, the reverse is true.

That would tend to imply that a lower volatility implies that the market should continue a slow unwinding and that the odds for a sharp high percentage rally is conversely fading (after the unteenth time we have gtot sharp rallies and then regressed back down to the low 8,000s in the Dow).

The more conventional thinking is that we are in a trading range between 7,500 and 9,000 which I ascribe to as well until funamentals markedly change. Being the holiday, I hope fundamentals change for the better next year, but hope is just that... hope. Not bad for the holiday season.

Lacking that, there is still eggnog.

2008 Dec 23 11:00 PM

[wise:]

volatility increasing is a negative for the bull, but everyone needs a good break and a fresh perspective after the holidays -

2008 Dec 23 11:40 PM