Sirius XM Slapped with Downgrade from Moody's 137 comments
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Citing a negative outlook for approximately $2.2 billion million of rated debt instruments, Moody’s Investors Service downgraded Sirius Satellite Radio Inc.’s (SIRI) probability of default rating (PDR) and corporate family rating (CFR) to Ca from Caa1. Ratings and loss given default assessments of debt instruments issued by Sirius and its wholly-owned subsidiaries, XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc. and XM Satellite Radio Inc. were adjusted accordingly. The rating outlook is negative.
“The company’s speculative grade liquidity rating (SGL) remains positioned at SGL-4 (indicating poor liquidity). With nearly $1.0 billion of its $3.3 billion total debt coming due in the New Year ($190 million in February, $350 million in May and $433 million in December), and given the current background of capital market dislocation and the company’s poor liquidity situation, the rating actions anticipate that Sirius will be unable to repay or refinance its maturing debts without negotiating some sort of compromise arrangement with at least a portion of the affected constituents. Sirius has already initiated transactions to refinance portions of its debt. In recent weeks, the company has completed a number of “3(a)(9)” equity for debt exchanges. Despite the potential of certain benefits such as a net reduction in debt and a lower total interest burden, Moody’s considers these transactions as being analogous to a distressed exchange of the applicable debt instruments based on the perspective that the company is under financial stress. Moody’s expects additional refinance activity that may include additional equity for debt exchanges as well as other alternatives to be highly likely. This is reflected in the PDR revision. In turn, this causes the CFR revision as well as changes to the ratings and LGD assessments of individual debt instruments. The negative outlook is reflective of possible further rating pressure pending refinance activities and the likely debt structure that will result.”
Position - Long Sirius XM
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This article has 137 comments:
Your better watch out, you better not cry....Santa Claus is coming to town....
On Dec 24 08:26 AM SantaClause wrote:
> This is Santa getting back to all of you wishing you a good Merry
> Christmas and joyful holidays. I have been in the market for 50 years.
> I've seen and felt the Great Depression of the 1930's. As to the
> situation that SIRI is in one needs to place itd SP in contex with
> the general market. We have millions of subscribers. If each of them
> would purchase a hundred dollars of shares per month and get the
> members of their families who don't have SIRI acess in yheir cars
> to purchase one then the company will have a brighter future. Knockong
> the management will not be of any benefit at this stage. There are
> some bright signs as I've seen increased commercial activity in television
> and radio. Here at the North Pole we are hooking up a U haul it for
> increased SIRI XM presents. Mrs. Clause is baking gingerbread cookies
> as the elves are working three shifts per day. Investers...be patient
> and this too will past and SIRI will possibly have a brighter future.
> Be positive at this juncture. Have a merry holidays.
> Your better watch out, you better not cry....Santa Claus is coming
> to town....
They are going to issue stock regardless but this way it's not to "shorts"
On Dec 24 08:29 PM hameed wrote:
> I think Sirius has over one millions stockholders. If each stockholder
> ,would bail the company for the two upcoming loans,with 500.00 dollars
> payable back when the gets a firm feet.that will give a big lift
> to the price of the stock. Hopefully over 3 dollars in short period
> of time
500 mil cash for 500 mil new shares is a pretty good deal.
On Dec 25 10:50 AM mogami_99 wrote:
> Hi, I think we should just get issued 500 worth of new stock @.10
> a share.
> They are going to issue stock regardless but this way it's not to
> "shorts"
On Dec 24 08:26 AM SantaClause wrote:
> This is Santa getting back to all of you wishing you a good Merry
> Christmas and joyful holidays. I have been in the market for 50 years.
> I've seen and felt the Great Depression of the 1930's. As to the
> situation that SIRI is in one needs to place itd SP in contex with
> the general market. We have millions of subscribers. If each of them
> would purchase a hundred dollars of shares per month and get the
> members of their families who don't have SIRI acess in yheir cars
> to purchase one then the company will have a brighter future. Knockong
> the management will not be of any benefit at this stage. There are
> some bright signs as I've seen increased commercial activity in television
> and radio. Here at the North Pole we are hooking up a U haul it for
> increased SIRI XM presents. Mrs. Clause is baking gingerbread cookies
> as the elves are working three shifts per day. Investers...be patient
> and this too will past and SIRI will possibly have a brighter future.
> Be positive at this juncture. Have a merry holidays.
> Your better watch out, you better not cry....Santa Claus is coming
> to town....
If you listened to the so called "idiots", then you are a dumbass!!! Plain and simple. First, did you even read this freaking article. There is not one word of positive information being written by Tyler. It is basicallly a re-print of the Moody's downgrade. Tyler writes on both sides of the fence. Sometimes positive and some times negative. One minute your stating that Mel will BK this company in a heartbeat and then in another, you say you take your investing advice from 3 or 4 bloggers who state in everything that they write that it is their opinion only. What an moron. You better go back to playing Monopoly where you can collect your 200 bucks when you pass go.
sl62, relmor, cos, killer, Tyler
keep posting your humble opinions. Every little bit helps when trying to piece together what is left of our investments. Long siri
Hope you all had a Merry Christmas and have a Happy New Year.
Stupid...yes you are!!!
Did you happen to read the article prior to making your comment? I ask because there is nothing positive whatsoever in this piece. I simply posted the news of a Moody's downgrade which was negative. I did not speculate on the Moody's opinion, nor did I interject anything beyond what was stated by Moody's.
When an analysts opinion comes out I write about it. Whether good or bad.
If you feel that this is a "glowing" piece about Sirius, I guess there is nothing I can add. Look at the last 10 articles I published. Moody's, Debt paydown, Nasdaq delisting extension, Auto bailout, Slacker offering a new pricing structure, Sirius Buzz Radio announcement, Music First and royalties, Clarity on the reverse split issue, Shareholder meeting announcement, and Sirius' new guidance. Most deal with SDARS in an indirect way, and those that directly deal with SDARS are pretty middle of the road on a bullish/bearish scale.
On Dec 26 05:23 PM Round & Long wrote:
> Tyler. It amazes me how you write about SIRI issues with out any
> negativity. If I were a CEO of a company that needed someone to be
> a blog cheerleader for my SP as the company goes in the toilet I
> would hire you. You are great. For three years straight SIRI stock
> price has been going down. And as it has been going down it go's
> down faster and faster. How can you write these Pro SIRI article's
> about this stock all this time and keep stating you are long? You
> look like a big fool. All I know is institutions must be using SIRI
> stock as a write off this year and all the loyal big money longs
> have sold so Mel does not have to worry about getting an extra body
> guard. It does not matter if this stock goes to 100 or BK. All the
> original investors already got F ed because they sold in the last
> year or so. People that are optimistic about this company are new
> share holders or one's that averaged down in the 3 to 1 dollar starting
> range. Its easy to go buy 50,000 shares at 12 cents and average down.
> Wow $6,000 bucks. But what do you have? A ton of share's of a failing
> company. Tlyer, si62, cos1000, remlor, killer all of you have stated
> at one time or another that this company can not and will not go
> BK. Watch out! Criminals are a dime a dozen in wall street these
> days. SEC does nothing. Look at Madoff with your money. Mel will
> BK this company to shed stock holders without blinking eye. He does
> not care about your money. He only cares about his own money even
> at the price of his reputation. He is not willing to put his money
> where his mouth is and that is why he is a crook. When the SP did
> not pop after the merger the smart investor's dumped this company.
> I was not one of them. I listen to idiots like you guy's. Boy was
> I stupid. Make sure you keep writing articles after you get ripped
> off. I want to hear what you have to say then Tyler. Like one other
> poster says," Blah, blah, blah,"
Is it possible that Mell offered up less than 5% of the newly authorized shares to send a message to the bank lenders that the debt will be taken care of one way or another......hey, if they want to make 4 or 5% on their lend, they better anti up?
optimism????
Banks look at the balance sheets, growth, and cash on hand...and future business model..etc...If you think a bank needs Moody's to tell them if they should loan money to Sirius, than your a fool....Only purpose of Moody's is to manipulate the "unsophisticated investors" into putting their money on the wrong side.. Im pretty sure Freddie Mac had a better rating from Moody's than Sirius does right before their stock went from 3 dollars to .12 cents....So take all information from the wall street crooks with a grain of salt....Bottom line....Its 100 percent useless information....If anything, its a positive....
Downgrades...Positiive
Price targets lowered...Positive...
Credit downgrades from Moodys....Irrelevant(T... A rated mortgaged backed secruitites is all I have to say about that company, technically the companyt shouldnt even exist anymore...)
Analyists coming on and recommending a stock...Negative...
Cramer supporting a stock...Negative
MSM talking up a stock...Negative...
A stock in the news AT ALL....VERY VERY NEGATIVE.....Untill Sirius talk disapears almost all together, this sp will not move...
Goldman sachs dropped coverage on satellite radio. I wrote about that some time ago.
siriusbuzz.com/wienkes...
On Dec 27 12:46 PM relmor wrote:
> Notice no new price downgrades from GS in a long time....Notice Cramer
> doesnt mention this stock anymore.....AT ALL....These are all very
> very good signs....Moody's downgrade is already factored in....Going
> bankrupt is priced in.....Only Mel and Sirius can take this stock
> much lower now...
Like I said, I havent felt this bullish about this stock since pre merger time...
without any SEC filings reflecting differently, GS still owns $127M of the remaining $193.5M Feb, 2009 Bond Convertible debt. Sounds like you yourself have a good handle on those numbers with you 66% guess. LOL I guess Moody thought they were being kind in being late to the game with this downgrade. As you say I doubt anybody involved with Sirius' debt restructuring cares much about their notice.
I checked MFFAIS today: www.mffais.com/siri.ht...
It seems like California Public Employees Retirement System received a Santa Claus stocking stuffer of 15.1M shares on Christmas Eve. They must agree with your bullish outlook at .12 /share. They must have waited for Moody to downgrade before making their investment decision.
As far as Sirius Xm reverse split, the recent extension of delisting for another 3 months, April 20th, will put that off. I wouldn't be surprised to see this suspended two more times in 90 day increments. That wouldn't be precedent setting and even NASDAQ doesn't want to lose the transaction volume revenue from all of these companies. By April 20th the debt issues of Feb and May 2009 will be history.
March 31,2009 is the other key date for their Auto Partners and restructuring. That's when they'll need to have the pumps re-primed by Washington. GMAC getting Bank Holding Company approval and access to TARP this past Friday should help lubricate the car lending market and clean up inventory. We just can't underestimate the love Americans have for their Cars. With pent up demand, low cost financing, recently unheard of fuel costs, and giveaway discounts on the current models, I would anticipate a better than expected 1st quarter for the automakers. I also wouldn't be surprised to see the restructuring of the Big Three resulting in the Big Two. Chrysler and GM are already together on the GMAC front, merging and consolidating models while coming out with new fuel efficient models would only make sense. This all bodes well for Sirius XM IMO.
Hope your doing well.... and that the Holidays have been kind.........
It is getting to a point where talking about a penny here, and a penny there, is almost 10% of the stock. I try to make most of my purchases based on percentage gain / loss and not actual dollar amounts. This stock has gotten ridiculous in that regard but, the results are the same. If I truly had followed that rule, I wouldn't be here now scraping to recover from my mistakes.
I personally don't think that a short selling event will ever take place on this equity until something organic and tangible takes place to change the company's momentum. The Shorts have taken the majority of their profits already and are now hovering around the bottom like the rest of us. IMHO. I will be looking to get a little more next week with EOY happening. I am not in a hurry though. This company has malaise on it until something news worthy comes forth. Patience will be rewarded here as always. I certainly am not selling but, I am waiting to see if buying is in the next days offering.
You Guys take care .........................
Happy Saturday. A few things to consider. I am not focusing on percentage of moves. Not when for example, Friday's advance of .0094 is 8%. This stock is partially where it is due to a synthetic component, and regardless of what the percentage of the move turns out to be when it corrects, so it shall be (whether a 100, 200, 1000 or 2000% move). I just don't think percentage means much in this situation The SP already showed the ability to go from .21 to .44 in a hurry (and SI has pretty much stayed where is was even then). Esp. given the synthetic component, I don't consider .13 that far from .21 (we just had a 2 day .14 - .23 move like it was nothing)...therefore I still believe a .45 - .60 SP is well within reach (given the proper positive news from the company to make the advance stick). If that transpires and the news is solid, from there, .75 - .85 is entirely possible after a pull back of profit taking. And given the past 2 - 4 weeks worth of events, I think we all knew the SP was destined for here until the resolutions begin to hit the wire (or a SI profit taking session). The latter of course we can only guess when it happens. I feel like SP performance lately has been bullish. I bought my last traunch of 4K on Christmas Eve morning @ .116. I just felt like @ .11, even if it dips to .09 or .08 before popping, I'm in the low mix for any sudden move off what will then be the low (if necessary). That's it. I'm now done buying. We still have to watch next week for redemptions as Funds could be waiting for any last possible pop to redeem EOQ/EOY. If we get through Monday without any huge redemptions, I'll feel pretty good that this could be the low. But, I felt like .11 was a great final "in" with next to no downside risk.
Killer, that's about all I can offer in the "when to buy" department. I think the hold last week after the 50M sh redemption was significant and makes .05 or lower highly unlikely. Not impossible but much less likely IMO. As said we still need to get past Monday at least but personally I think it's a good sign wehaven't had more redemptions since the meeting. The SP was .14+ then and you would think managers giving up would have taken that over lower. I think most probably are thinking like us...it's at the bottom. It can essentially only go up from here (excluding catastrophic news likek BK), so why not give it another Q to see what happens...
I just read yet another article posted today...this time in the NY Times about the debt. The debt, the debt, the debt! Yeesh. But anyway at the end of the article was this:
>>During the shareholder meeting, Mr. Karmazin acknowledges that bankruptcy is a possibility if the company cannot reach agreement with lenders, but he says it is unlikely.
“You have to play the hand you’re dealt,” he says in the interview. “Right now, I don’t like my hand. But we’ll play it.” <<
Not that I believe BK is the path that will be chosen, I'm just documenting what was printed. I think we'd all just like to see a viable solution to this that relieves the current pressure and removes the eddy of doubt from the equation. As the article states, which we already know...the company is actually growing while others in the similar space are shrinking. This is all about the debt. With the guidance released just 9 days ago at the meeting, it's safe to say they will report a good quarter. Who knows maybe they can use "some" COH and supplement with shares to handle Feb 15th 2 1/2 Notes. Then get a 1 yr extension on the May bank facility (since the company has no debt due in 2010). Then it would give them 3 Q's to drum up more COH (and maybe use more shares with SP up higher by then) to deal with December. Who knows...
Amen to that brother...and same to you and yours...
It's been posted and reported that "you" are responsible for 6 months delay of the FCC approval...how do you respond to that?
1. Wal-Mart
2. Toyota
3. Saudi Aramco
4. JPMorgan Chase
5. Unilever
6. China Mobile
7. Microsoft
8. News Corp.
9. 3M
10. Apple
11. Google
12. Huawei
13. Monsanto
14. YKK
15. Nielsen
16. Jarden
17. Intuit
18. Autodesk
19. HCL Technologies
20. Japan Steel Works
21. Sirius XM
22. Facebook
23. SKS Microfinance
24. Li & Fung Ltd.
25. Craigslist
You haven't been investing for very long, have you? The reason I can tell is because all your comments are about bashing others (due to that your pissed your stock has crashed) rather than offering intelligent thought process or commentary on the facts (esp. where it may concern repairing your own losses). If you haven't figured it out, genius, that's what the people you bash around here are doing. We don't post here to give you or anyone else here advice on investing. We use tools available to us like charts and intuitive reasoning and make decsions on our interpretations. And while the public, like you, are entitled to read them, they are not written nor expressed necessarily for your benefit. This btw, is no different than the top broker at Golden Slacks, or anyone else in the game of investing (the oldest to the youngest). Get the point...it's not limited to bloggers. This is all ANY Fund or money manager can do to make decisions about where to put their money. Just ask all of them that are reporting heavy losses this year (aka, NO ONE in this game is immune from market losses). There are no genius' in this game (except for you of course) who can avoid getting caught in some kind of downturn at times...in any sector you can name. Because you are so green, you couldn't know that many Institutional Funds and Holders still own this stock to the tune of many millions of shares. News Flash: Still owning SIRI common (and not giving it up for dead) is not limited to those on this blog (though you seem to think so).
Look. I could have just called you a bunch of names but what good will that do. Instead, I decided to try to educate you a little about the real world. By your comments and beliefs, I have to believe you've sold your shares and taken your loss and your bitters. My question to you then is, why waste your time here? Isn't it best that you just head off to other things and do your genius thing elsewhere rather than waste your time telling intelligent people that they're idiots? Because if we're idiots, we have some pretty heady company my friend, in the well-respected people who manage a crap load more money than you'll ever see in this lifetime (or your next few put together). Think about it...and think about making a change to your 'tude. IMHO...
"Sirius announces Feb 09 debt has been paid. Sirius issued 300 mil shares with a par value of 1.00 May 09 debt was resolved with issue of 400 mil shares par value of 1.00 Siruis announces total channels available has reached 200. Company will be paying a dividand of 3.00 per share on 4 July 2009.
Sirius will purchase 2 bil shares of common stock on 1 Aug and remove them from float. CEO Mel K has been invited to broadcast "Coffee with Barrak" from White House every morning begining Jan 21 2009.
Sirius has exclusive rights to 2009-2010 International Test Cricket.
Play bingo on Sirius 24/7"
How can you report institutional buys like that??????????
I KNOW, that YOU KNOW that those are SEC filing dates on that MFFAIS site. That 15 million share "stocking stuffer" as you called it, is what that California fund is reporting from the 1st Q of 2006!!!!!!!!!!!!
And Relmor, I know that you know it too............Did it slip your mind when you congradulated Cos for that "nice catch"??????????
You both got some explaining to do or I say you're both full of shit!!!!!!!
The merger promised more programming and in actuality we get less and WITH commercials. The combined company has gotten away from what was attractive to it in the first place. The consumer has options and this consumer has turned them off.
I have a portable Myfi for sale.
The date I took is right off the maffais report date: 12:24:2008......
Take you 'tude and shove it. If you have a problem with the data fine, but your attitude is not necessary.......
Although the 13F reporting period goes back to 3-31-2006, the form filing shows it complying with a change date of 12/23/2008. All purchases are included from this period. maffais shows a change date on 13F of 12/23/2008 and maffais report date of 12/24/2008 and reports this 15.1M shares as a New Holding. I interpret that as a Stocking Stuffer......
I guess no one is allowed to be bullish on this stock for even one day....Ok, bright eyes, well see what the stock does from here....Just make sure I see your face on here in the next few months.....
I thought I had a very clear understanding of how the MFFAIS site worked.
I just spent 20 minutes trying to prove that those shares were not bought on 12/23 and I couldn't do it. I'm now very confused as to how that site works. It doesn't seem to be an easy and consistent way to get reliable information.
I apologize for jumping on you guys so hard. I think you two are the straightest shooters on here. But with all of "who done it" conspiracy theories, for a second I thought I cought you two colaberating on some BS reporting.
I'll now go back to shutting up....
If you do not understand people have lost money on this stock and are just trying to find reasons to hope for eventual recovery that's your problem. It is too late for them to worry about selling @.11
No one is going to buy shares hoping to see it get over 1.00. People who are buying today hope it gets to .20 or.25 so they can double their money.
The ones who have been here for more then a year have already heard anything you might say 10,000 times and they are tired of it.
Have a nice day.
On Dec 29 01:32 AM MarkBme wrote:
> MOG
>
> Stop crying. I post only the truth.
>
> If you and the paid propiganda crew can post guarbage 100 times,
> I can post the truth.
>
> Cry cry cry because your stock is so picked on... Get a CEO that
> is not a crook and work for a good guy so we can all make some money...
On Dec 29 10:14 AM siriusly depressed wrote:
> Cos, Relmor,
>
> I thought I had a very clear understanding of how the MFFAIS site
> worked.
>
> I just spent 20 minutes trying to prove that those shares were not
> bought on 12/23 and I couldn't do it. I'm now very confused as to
> how that site works. It doesn't seem to be an easy and consistent
> way to get reliable information.
>
> I apologize for jumping on you guys so hard. I think you two are
> the straightest shooters on here. But with all of "who done it" conspiracy
> theories, for a second I thought I cought you two colaberating on
> some BS reporting.
>
> I'll now go back to shutting up....
>
Considering the cuurent gold play and interest...you might want to keep DROOY on your board for '09. They've had a nice run up last 60 days. Hard to say if they are headed back up to April highs but if gold stays interesting in '09, could very well be. At least one to keep aprised of...
Before share holder meeting I posted
1. I was against R/S
2. I thought management should be sacked
After meeting
1. The vote results could not be genuine (75& for the proposals?
My attitude all along has been company should fix their problems by getting the SP up and then using shares for debt followed by them re buying the shares to restore SP. They should look inside and cut costs (management compensation)
Since they got everything they wanted (the "long" shareholder were thrown under bus) I feel the future is secure for company. They can use the shares for debt do a R/S and be fine. Investors after R/S will be fine. The people who bought stock prior to merger are the ones hurt by votes. If you look back into the blogs on Sirius there was plenty of warning of what was to come.
The main difference between Sirius and other companies that trade stock is Sirius share holders are majority private investors while other companies are majority institutions. (about a 80-20) It also appears a great many use their heart and not their brain when it comes to holding this stock.
It's not up to me (or you) to decide what course they should take. No one knows for certain what 2009 will bring. But I doubt it will see Sirius or their CEO losing in court over management of company since I think they will be viewed a success after negotiating the present obstacles. (even though the real heros are the "longs" who made the future possible at great sacrifice.
I consider your posts SPAM. (SPAM is defined as unsolicited posts or repeated posting of same contant)
Most of my posts are just plain baloney. (asking silly questions or bad attempts at humor)
On Dec 29 11:42 AM MarkBme wrote:
> Conspiracy Theory NOT........
> So, as long as I see this army of paid Sirius Propaganda advertisers
> posting pro-Sirius garbage to mislead investors, I will be here to
> level the field.
>
None of your statments are logical since there are more practical solutions to taking company private. Rather then borrowing to pay off debt simply borrow to buy the .12 stock. (you do not have to do it all at once) You could even issue stock to to the lender.
I mean your having them do it the hard way. There was no reason to lose 4.5 billion in the process.
The smart move would have been to let XM go BK first. (after all it's their debt thats holding Sirius back currently)
Then buy them at <.05 per share. Use the 4.5 bil to buy up Sirius and then go private.
On Dec 29 12:43 PM MarkBme wrote:
> Sir, I am not Mike Harteib
>
> My case has not been made yet. We are building a much larger and
> more direct case. However, we are waiting for the unrecoverable damage
> to Sirius Stock or the "end play".
>
> An operational BK is NOT out of the question. This is one way to
> take the company private and one "end play".
>
> You say fraud? Well, corruption correction is how I made a living
> for over 12 years. I am not Mike H and I am better than he is at
> what I do... LOL
>
> The hard and cold fact NOT theory about Mel and Sirius is all long
> investors are being screwed by Mel and his bunch of thieves.
On Dec 29 01:48 PM relmor wrote:
> This guy thinks is going operational bankrupt...The market doesnt
> know that, no one knows that, Sirius doesnt know that, bondholders
> dont know that, banks dont know that, but you know that....Ok bro....
On Dec 28 01:35 PM relmor wrote:
> I sold my last shares at around .34 cent range, started as high as
> .85....I have been looking to buy back and hold, just didnt see the
> action necessary....I think the time is now....Im buying monday morning,
> and will sell at .10 cents...Targetting at least a 5 cent move....
Why would a company continue to pay down its upcoming debt obligation (From 300 million to 190 million) if it were planning to file bankruptcy? It doesn't make sense.
Does the debt for shares swap indicate plans for bankruptcy?
And what about those that are purchasing the shares; why would they accept this as payment if the company is going bankrupt?
Once again, these actions do not indicate that bankruptcy is on the table. Where is Moodys and other analysts coming from?
Long Sirius
As for me selling now makes no sense. I'd rather wait then settle for pocket change. (I am down well below a buck now)
These guys wait until the plane hits the ground, then get on the radio and yell 'Mayday!'
How and when did he sell out to Goldman Sachs. I have heard this many times but, to date not one person has been able to explain it to me so that it makes any sense? Maybe you can...
On Dec 30 05:23 AM relmor wrote:
> You were probably telling Freddie MAC stockholders to sell at .25
> cents right before it made it runs to over 1.75.......Your the obvious
> news bunny arent you mogomi.....I want your whiney little bitch ass
> here every month to check in....Cause once this stock rebounds(all
> stocks rebound to some degree eventually, or they go under...) you
> will be telling someone the dumbest advice ive literrally ever heard.....sell
> after losing 95 percent....Thats the LAST THING YOU DO AT THAT POINT
> IDIOT.....Now as an new entry point I would have a tight stop.....Risk/Reward
> is so out of whack here its mindboggling...But paid bashers like
> you make me sure of what im doing....You can bash this stock at 1
> dollar.....But at .12 cents your basically like a fart in the wind
> to me...
On Dec 30 05:23 AM relmor wrote:
> You were probably telling Freddie MAC stockholders to sell at .25
> cents right before it made it runs to over 1.75.......Your the obvious
> news bunny arent you mogomi.....I want your whiney little bitch ass
> here every month to check in....Cause once this stock rebounds(all
> stocks rebound to some degree eventually, or they go under...) you
> will be telling someone the dumbest advice ive literrally ever heard.....sell
> after losing 95 percent....Thats the LAST THING YOU DO AT THAT POINT
> IDIOT.....Now as an new entry point I would have a tight stop.....Risk/Reward
> is so out of whack here its mindboggling...But paid bashers like
> you make me sure of what im doing....You can bash this stock at 1
> dollar.....But at .12 cents your basically like a fart in the wind
> to me...
You still don't make sense why you're here. You already have all your answers about Mel and co figured out...so why continue to post here? Why continue hanging around like a freaking spider questioning other people's motives or efforts? And, if you've been in the game for 20 years, you certainly don't act like it my friend. Sorry but your lack of accumen is astounding. You sound more like a whiney little teenager who lost his milk money. Seriously dude, read your posts...find me one intelligent thing you have written that pertains to the stock market. Thank you.
On Dec 30 05:23 AM relmor wrote:
> You were probably telling Freddie MAC stockholders to sell at .25
> cents right before it made it runs to over 1.75.......Your the obvious
> news bunny arent you mogomi.....I want your whiney little bitch ass
> here every month to check in.... you
> will be telling someone the dumbest advice ive literrally ever heard.....sell
> after losing 95 percent....Thats the LAST THING YOU DO AT THAT POINT
> IDIOT.....But paid bashers like
> you make me sure of what im doing....You can bash this stock at 1
> dollar.....But at .12 cents your basically like a fart in the wind
> to me...
for those interested in the actual stock market...
Put CHTR on your board...not to get involved with but to watch. They are in a similar situation as SIRI but only in where their debt load has taken them (down to peanuts). All recent news is about BK just around the corner and they were downgraded to Sell (ya think? More timely analyst input from C!). Personally, they have real problems compared to SIRI but these two stocks have been acting very similar in SP. Volumes are different but SP action has been very similar last 60 days or so. I say this because they just got "slapped" with a hefty downgrade yesterday and fell from a steady .11/.13 now to .08/.09. This is a "look" what the next "potential" leg down for SIRI "would" look like. As said, compared to SIRI, CHTR has REAL debt problems and therefore, given the SIRI SP action of the past week, I'm optimistic that they may be able to avoid heading that much lower from here. Obviously, now they/we need some REAL news that makes a difference.
Now on the other side of the coin, you may also consider tracking CHTR because as of Dec A SI, they are a 19% SI to Float. Which is way high. If they do fille for BK, there will be a run for all that to get out. Might be worth hopping in for a little ride. Obviously I would only suggest getting in this when the play in actually "on" and not before. IMHO...
That little run (emphasize little) yesterday PM was cool. Most likely a mini-cover with some pure buys for flavor. Now we just need one of those on a major scale...
Mogami_99 is cool...I think you took him the wrong way... IMHO...
On Dec 30 12:39 PM sl62 wrote:
> A little (or a lot) flatlined today...anyone have a set of paddles
> and a charge?? lol
>
> That little run (emphasize little) yesterday PM was cool. Most likely
> a mini-cover with some pure buys for flavor. Now we just need one
> of those on a major scale...
On Dec 30 12:41 PM sl62 wrote:
> Relmor...
>
> Mogami_99 is cool...I think you took him the wrong way... IMHO...
I have not ridden a stock into the dirt, and this time will be no different...I have tight stops in place....
My point is that this stock IMO is already been dragged to the dirt..
The fact that bondholders want shares proves to me someone thinks this stock is going up, and its not just me....Big money thinks its going up from here....Remember theres still a gigantic short interst on this stock, and unless its going to 0 they have to close at some point...Not waiting for that, just a number of reasons why investors like shorted stocks right when they feel the pendulum is going to swing the other way...>Granted its going to be like pushing a boulder uphill for awhile, but eventually this stock will find footing and recover....I wont hold for .12 cents to .01 cent to find out....Im not dumb...But I will risk a 20 percent loss....
If im wrong, then im wrong, but I wont come on here and scream and yell about how we should all sell and get out and never try again...
Thats a defeatist attitude....
I still believe in the company, just not the stock....
At some point, maybe even by accident, some of that might rub off onto the SP for a bit, and panic some shorters...Thats when I get out, wait for the rubdown again, and start over....
On Dec 30 01:38 PM relmor wrote:
> I apologize Mogami_...
> I have not ridden a stock into the dirt, and this time will be no
> different...I have tight stops in place....
> My point is that this stock IMO is already been dragged to the dirt..
>
> The fact that bondholders want shares proves to me someone thinks
> this stock is going up, and its not just me....Big money thinks its
> going up from here....Remember theres still a gigantic short interst
> on this stock, and unless its going to 0 they have to close at some
> point...Not waiting for that, just a number of reasons why investors
> like shorted stocks right when they feel the pendulum is going to
> swing the other way...>Granted its going to be like pushing a boulder
> uphill for awhile, but eventually this stock will find footing and
> recover....I wont hold for .12 cents to .01 cent to find out....Im
> not dumb...But I will risk a 20 percent loss....
There were 3 million shares sold at approx 1300 today. (4 groups of around 750k each) That is what took SP below .12
The entire world knows within 60 days there is going to be a plan implemented, potentially using a variety of instruments. This is the legal structure by which all of that will take place. Maybe Cos1000 has more on it but that's my take...
That is correct IMHO. It is the date of sale (transaction) that counts and not the settlement date (usually T+3). So yes, tomorrow we will see who's waiting until the last day to do what for 2008 reporting. You never know who is waiting in the wings... I've seen a little bit if everything over the years from nothing to heavy selling to heavy covers.
On Dec 30 04:40 PM billddrummer wrote:
> Does anyone care that Directed Electronics will stop distributing
> aftermarket Sirius products on 1/31/09?
On Dec 30 05:01 PM sl62 wrote:
> mogami_99,
>
> That is correct IMHO. It is the date of sale (transaction) that counts
> and not the settlement date (usually T+3). So yes, tomorrow we will
> see who's waiting until the last day to do what for 2008 reporting.
> You never know who is waiting in the wings... I've seen a little
> bit if everything over the years from nothing to heavy selling to
> heavy covers.
We're through today without incident. Tomorrow could be anything and everything being EOY AND EOQ. IMHO...
Today seems bullish again to me. Though .12 was broken, it was brief and support was quick @ .1190 about 1:30 then again @ 2:30 on the S-3 release. But then a rebound after that going into the bell. I think what is keeping this SP steady is the timeframe. From here on in, news can be released quick and at any time causing shorts to run, which they very well know (or the next leg down). But for the same reason in the general market shorts are on the sidelines, I think the same is essentially true here. From here, all moves most likely will be directly on the news. No one wants to go any farther out on a limb than the next guy. As far as outright sells, after tomorrow, any major Fund would not sell again until March 30. I suspect that when the company gave a March 1 timeframe to complete '09 plan, many Fund managers were content to wait at least on more Q to see what is what. What do they or anyone have to lose from here?...and they have much more to gain. Experienced managers and traders know that even in BK (which is the worst case but not one I believe will happen), this SP will make it back to .30 in SI unwind and bottom feeder "quick money" pile-in trade. I've personally seen it happen every single time from WorldCom to FAOShwartz to Kmart to United to Circuit City... So they know it would be stupid (unless they wished to take the write-down in '08) to get out now @ .12 without waiting until the company plays it's hand in early '09. And they know, like I do, given a decent scenario outcome, the upside is anywhere from .40 to anywhere higher over time (pre RS).
I like the shelf registration today. Getting things done. You have to assume by now, the plan is in place and just waiting to be implemented. I'm bullish from here (over the next 60 day timeframe) no matter what transpires.
WB in...the next 3 months will be waaay different than the last 3...for most of us.
Also it seemed to me that company assets and liabilities is 218 bil?
On related note
How much cash would operate Sirius for 3 years? (where can you find this type of info?)
On the 8k form nothing new? All that debt talk is what we already knew?
Thanks I am terrible when it comes to understanding the legal mumbo jumbo.
(I think if I had read their risk assessment before buying stock I would have chickened out. I know all stocks say the same thing)
My strategy is to sell at .10, rebuy when it cross .12 cents again...I figure with the timetable im looking at that would be probably only one cross...I can risk that...My sell price is not set, as I feel under .50 cents is a joke for this stock...But I will end up doing what I normally do, sell on any one day pop of over 2 cents, and wait for the pullback, Maybe even be daring and hold overnight...Thats about all my risk tolerance...I feel if this stock moves it will be on news, and it will go up or down very fast at this point...Might only need one hour to get decent coinage...
I've been out and about trying to make a little money and came back to find that my limit buy at .1210 for 6000 shares was completed. I thought maybe .1190 would have been good, but when I have some money to improve my recent .16 buy I don't want to miss it. I really don't think anything is going to happen with the last day of trading in 2008, but who Knows? I am holding onto another buy in at .1012 when Relmor sells his tight stop limit to me, but other than that I am in for the news of debt restructure and 4Q pre-announcement results if they come out next week or even Friday. (sorry relmor but I'll take your .10 at .1012, LOL)
I would look for a better than expected COH and Sub growth to generate a little concern from the shorts and sideline sitters, but am not hopeful until a debt announcement. Meanwhile I am throwing in a little, as I can, hoping for the best. Who would of thought I could by 6000 shares in December after the merger for $725. This stock is completely not what I thought it would be at this time. There are a lot of other investments that will probably do better, but this is now with me for the duration.
Killerkaul,
Hey, here's to you and the dog.......well fed and warm I hope... to both my friend.
As far as the Shorts go, a little buying panic is what I am looking for....... seeing how they sold us short with all of that borrowing of shares in the Summer.... I think a little buying frenzy to cover their miserable arses would do us all a bit of good right now.... That would give a nice kick to the stock price and give our shares a little glow for the New Year..... and with that, find 2009 to be both Prosperous and Healthy with you and all yours that you keep dear....
The S-8, SEC Filing was for the Registration of 2M shares authorized to be issued for Employee Benefit Plan Registration, the last S-8 was filed on 7/29/08 for XM employees transferring over to Sirius due to the merger. This does not represent any of the newly authorized shares because of their low volume and consistency with employee stock benefit plans previously given and registered IMO.
From Orbicast: www.orbitcast.com/arch...
I think consolidation of suppliers, as was recently done with distributors, is a good sign of honing in on their products moving forward. I would think that with the interoperable devices in the aftermarket first, and the consolidation of programming already in the mix, that this is just a normal part of the evolution. There is a lot of "radio device" satellite junk out there currently, and I mean that in the kindest way, owning 4 different legacy receivers, and none of them able to get B of B. I really can't debate whether audiovox or directed is the better, but I would think that One is better than a Few.
Sorry I didn't see your post to billddrummer about audiovox. my bad.
I think that stop will not get hit....I think it may hit .11 again, or in the high 10's but its trading so tight right now, bad news would almost have to push it lower than 11 cents right now...Market action is only used for cover, not really affecting SP of Sirius...If DOW drops huge, it may touch .09 cents that day, and end back near 11....Thats when the real trickery comes out...If they lauch that, It will affect my buyin by about 20 percent....Time wise before feb debt i figure one time with that bs would probably be it...As for bankrupcy.....Thats just ridiculous...COH is improvable any time they want to sell out and sell future subs or advertising dollars....They could even get short term loans for GM now or NFL...etc....Even Apollo Group(not unprecidented) but Ill bet all the bashers didnt know that did they, probably also didnt know that Apollo group has qualified for billions in loans just from their own credit...So suck on that bitches...Bankrupcy...... on...How much can they really pay you to bash someones stock dreams...Can you live with yourself for that....Sell now....Sell a long time ago....Selling now is financial suicide for your losses...Your risking 4% for 96% gain back chance....Like handing over to a robber a 100 dollar bill, but when he asks for your quarter you risk attacking him...Just not smart...Dont put big money you cant lose, true, but isnt that obvious at this point.....If youve been on the sidelines waiting to average down a bit, or jump in, nows the time...Its as stable as its been in a long long time...
Looking forward to seeing what's next. Every step of the way on this has been just that...another brick in the wall. Good luck to all. Obviously the next steps are going to be the most impacting of all and will be producing the most dramatic results. Relmor, I'm with you on that .50 is nowhere near where this stock could be but given most similar boats, it seems like .45 - .65 could be a fair place to inhabit. Right now my target is .55 but I will monitor that depending on the circumstances since it will most definitely overshoot it's eventual new water line. Everyone knows this is a highly watched play. IMO, many are just licking their chops to jump in on this if/when the company proves BK is off the table for the foreseeable future. That is what is keeping people on the sidelines on this stock. You take that out of the equation and it's anybody's guess where it goes. All we do know is it doesn't go down from here! lol. My guess is any good news releases (or as perceived good by the market) will be BMO..which will allow for a lot of covering before the public will be able to jump in. Typical. Personally, I think we are approaching the end of being down here. What I mean is with now so much "certainty" out in the open such as the meeting, etc..., the next time the SP takes off it will not be retracking down here. It will set a new higher low, and, so on. The only reason it's here now is because the threat of BK. If that is removed, there is no reason for the SP to be here. I say depending on how news is released, SP is at least looking to return to Oct level range of .30 - .45 first. If news is great all at once, could be looking at a spike up to .75 -.85, then a pull back.
As said though. Next 90 days = much different than last 90. If company issues are worked out favorably to the market, we shouldn't need to be in such protectionist mode. The SP will no longer be in a death spiral. Depending on overall market sentiment, if positive into March, this could be a decent play to leave alone and see where it goes for Q1. We might be surprised. It is not out of the realm to see 1.25 again (or even a little higher) on euphoria piling in and faith reinstilled. IMHO....
Good luck on your buy today...
They filed two documents today at about 2:30P. An 8K of combined accounting for the company and an S-3ASR, which is a standard shelf registration for impending activities regarding common, preferred, warrants, etc. To my knowledge, the S-3 is standard for all companies about to engage in new offerings or transactions, etc. And the 8K, or I have even also seen a 10K from some companies, is filed with it as de rigeur full diclosure. That's my take on today's filings...The stock took a little hit on the filings but supported at .1190 and bounced once they were determined non-events IMO...
All it means I believe is they are prepping for using some of the new common...and who knows maybe they'll do some Preferred like Golden Slacks did with Buffett (not that it will be Buffett in this case). They did list "new investors" in their PPT from the meeting as one source of funding...and if they do, these folks will need to be above the common.
investor.sirius.com/se...
Good point. GMAC, now a bank holding company and eligible for TARP money, just received I believe 5B today. This obviously is a new development for SIRI. Although I believe the damage on the money is @ 800 basis...so on second thought. might not be favorable for SIRI after all..never mind lol!
Your last post is my New Years wish...... remove the threat of BK..... Debt resolved....... find the Company being based on forward looking ........
Realistically the SP is not going to go anywhere until these wishes come true......
Thanks.... I'll check that out tomorrow.... My Ameritrade SEC filings tab didn't have them on their report yet....
I'm with you and well said. The good news is we are now fast approaching a new era for the company. They gave 3/1 as a deadline for '09 plan reveal but I believe announcement will come in Jan...and there is the hard Feb 15 deadline on the 2.5% Notes. With Feb having 28 days, even the most remote timetable of 3/1 is exactly 59 days from Thursday. We're just finally getting "in the pocket" (a term from my musical background) on this thing. IMHO...
No fear.
Love to get your take tomorrow on the filings...thanks.
lots o questions. Let's get to it tomorrow. gotta run..
Good catch about the new deal with Audiovox (I found out this morning).
With GMAC getting TARP $ and lowering credit standards, it may help reverse the slide in auto sales for a short time, but I don't think it will revive the industry like some pundits claim it will.
True, the pool of potential buyers will expand, but that doesn't solve the basic problem: manufacturing overcapacity.
Now I wonder if Ford Motor Credit and Chrysler Financial will petition for TARP dollars to 'maintain competitiveness' or some such drivel.
As far as aftermarket sales go, in my region Sirius seems to be outselling XM by 3:2 or so (I work in car audio retail). A lot of customers are looking for parts to fit their legacy receivers, and there are none. But they don't want to replace their old receivers. Which begs another question: Will the new transmission protocol work with the old receivers, or will legacy subscribers have to upgrade their units?
In the meantime, I've got nothing invested in SIRI. Just an interested observer.
Here's to a better '09. Happy New Year all...
Happy New Year to you and yours..... Here is to the 1st day of a more prosperous year for all.
I did review the S-3ASR which is as you say, standard form for future sales to raise capital for all types of instruments. The only difference hear is they needed to file this for the New Merged Entity, Sirius XM Radio along with the 8K. Specifics for each debt transaction will be additionally filed as offered for these.
I do find the 8K filed 12/30/08, as finally providing answers to many questions I and others had for how YOY performance metrics and financial outcomes would be measured and compared. We will now be able to go to this document for both companies' info for 9 months in 2008. I am sure the 4th Quarter & Annual (combined) will also be in this format. These Combined Pro Forma Statements of Operations for the two companies separately, and combined, for 9 months of 2008 with 1 month of Merger effected operations, along with the 4th Q included in the Annual, will provide a nice baseline for projected and actual performance in 2009. It also restates the 2007 Annual Statements separately and combined for the same purposes. This will allow YOY annual comparisons to be "straight lined" for easier analysis, and creates the format for the 2008 Annual Report to be born out of.
With debt refinancing in the making, these simplified accounting statements with YOY comparisons from full year 2007, 9 months separate and 1 month merged operations combined for 2008, and then being able to project operations with merger synergies for 2009, is all a necessary and prudent accounting step moving forward. Tidying up the books is always a good thing and usually brings more positive analysis from the Street, IMO.
Idiotic contracts were given when they were bidding against each other for content. This was as bad as what the NY Yankees have done lately to the MLB free agent market.
Buy the radio service- sell the stock.
Sell the stock @ .12? What sense does that make?
thanks for your input on those filings...