New Highs for Jobless Claims

It's not clear whether anyone really pays attention to the new jobless claims numbers these days, what with all the other bad economic news that continues to pour in, but, if they do, they are likely to notice when weekly claims for unemployment insurance top the 600,000 mark, which now seems inevitable.
A new high of 586,000 for the current economic cycle was set earlier this morning for the week ending December 20th. This follows readings of 575,000 and 556,000 over the prior two reporting periods and things are likely to get worse, perhaps much worse, before they get better for the labor market which is typically a lagging economic indicator.

Jobless claims are now at the highest level since November of 1982, the last time that the 600,000 level was breached at 612,000. Just one month before, in October, the all-time high of 695,000 was reached.

Adjusting for the roughly 30 percent increase in the U.S. population since that time, the all-time high in jobless claims translates to almost one million today, meaning that crossing the 600,000 mark could just be the beginning.

Comments

[wise]

excellent and timely reminder, let's advocate this

2008 Dec 25 03:41 PM

[unimpressedpragmatist]

If the author believes the unemployment figures are bad, now, just wait until The Messiah takes office. If and when he and his syncopates, a.k.a., the Democrat Congress begin their exercise in Marxist stupidity, the unemployment will rival the statistics of the deepest part of the Great Depression under that old socialist, FDR. He didn’t know what he was doing, either, but that didn’t slow him down or deter him from further ruination of the economy.

Fortunately, the American people of today are just a tad smarter than those who lived in the 1930’s. They may, don’t hold your breath or get your expectations too high, wakeup to their huge errors of the 2006 and 2008 elections and, in 2010, begin the restoration of democracy in a representative government. If their brain cells are, fully, engaged, they will make a clean sweep of the Democrats in the House of Representatives and a partial sweep of those in the Senate. Then, in 2012, they will toss the phony Messiah of change out on his stupid and corrupt backside, continue the cleanup of the Senate, and restore sense and sensibility to the federal government. To do otherwise will spell fini to the United States of America as designed by the Founding Fathers and built by subsequent generations of patriots.

May God’s will be done.

2008 Dec 25 03:57 PM

[John Lounsbury]

Tim - - -

Outstanding chart!

You included in a sentence "...the labor market which is typically a lagging economic indicator."

The weekly jobless claims you show in the chart is considered to be a leading economic indicator. In the chart, we its rise preceeded the start of the 2001-02 by about one year. There was abief spike right at the end of that recession.

The weekly jobs claims rise is less in the lead for the current recession.

Employment is a lagging indicator, a coincident indicator and a leading indicator, depending on the statistic examined.

There are two labor statistics in the Index of Leading Economic indicators:
1. Average weekly hours of production workers (manufacturing)
2. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance (inverted)

There are two labor statistics in the Index of Coincident Economic Indicators:
1. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
2. Personal income minus transfer payments

There are three labor related statistics in the Index of Lagging Economic Indicators:
1. Average duration of unemployment (inverted)
2. Change in index of labor cost per unit of output
3. Ratio of consumer installment credit outstanding to personal income

These indexes are maintained by the U.S. Department of Commerce:
bea.gov

2008 Dec 25 06:19 PM

[hoover]

You talk about representative government and what the founders tried to create. Today, the government works like this: People vote congress into office, then congress votes on bills largely as their Lobbyists direct. That isn't democracy or a republic in action. Its government run by the powerful, exercising their power through lobbyists. Sort of a collective monarchy run by a few hundred thousand people at the top of the wealth/power pyramid, rather than 130 million voters influencing the way congress votes. The Messiah (Aka "That One") may not do a great job, but I wouldn't count him out before he even begins. At least he will encourage science and education again, probably understands what makes average people tick, at least gives lip service against wholesale lobbying, probably doesn't want to destroy the middle class, and likely wants people to be rewarded for talent, achievement, and ability again. Modifying the current "winner take all" lottery system of wealth creation we seem have degenerated into, while attmpting to expand middle class incomes a little can't be all bad. And it isn't socialism or marxism.
> If the author believes the unemployment figures are bad, now, just
> wait until The Messiah takes office. If and when he and his syncopates,
> a.k.a., the Democrat Congress begin their exercise in Marxist stupidity,
> the unemployment will rival the statistics of the deepest part of
> the Great Depression under that old socialist, FDR. He didn’t know
> what he was doing, either, but that didn’t slow him down or deter
> him from further ruination of the economy.
>
> Fortunately, the American people of today are just a tad smarter
> than those who lived in the 1930’s. They may, don’t hold your breath
> or get your expectations too high, wakeup to their huge errors of
> the 2006 and 2008 elections and, in 2010, begin the restoration of
> democracy in a representative government. If their brain cells are,
> fully, engaged, they will make a clean sweep of the Democrats in
> the House of Representatives and a partial sweep of those in the
> Senate. Then, in 2012, they will toss the phony Messiah of change
> out on his stupid and corrupt backside, continue the cleanup of the
> Senate, and restore sense and sensibility to the federal government.
> To do otherwise will spell fini to the United States of America as
> designed by the Founding Fathers and built by subsequent generations
> of patriots.
>
> May God’s will be done.

2008 Dec 25 08:13 PM

[John Lounsbury]

Correction typo - - -

Please change "...abief spike..." to "...a brief spike..." My fingers keep moving faster than my brain. Since my fingers are slowing down....oops

Sorry.

2008 Dec 25 11:22 PM

[John Polomny]

hoover wrote,

"The Messiah (Aka "That One") may not do a great job, but I wouldn't count him out before he even begins."

I would, just as much as I would have counted out McCain or any other random person who would have been elected to the Presidency. This guy has four years maybe eight if he is lucky and he is dealing with a Congress that responds to people who give money for re-election not his calls for unity, change or whatever he has been going on about and an entrenched bureacracy that has not interest in changing. All they have they have to do is wait him out. I am in business and I do no think this guy could successfully run the company I work for so how can he be successful as an Executive of the largest government in the world? He simply is not qualified nor is anyone else as our government is so large it has become an entity unto itself at this point. I would grant that he is not the radical that right wing nut jobs paint him to be as he seems to be at least pragmatic. Sort of like an Elmer Gantry.

2008 Dec 26 02:25 AM

[John Lounsbury]

John Polomny - - -

I gave your comment a thumbs up, but I did think the Elmer Gantry comparison was a little over the top.

2008 Dec 26 12:02 PM