Retail Winners and Losers This Holiday Season

Wal-Mart (WMT) is the only real retail winner during the 2008 holiday shopping season, which is presaging more retail bankruptcies in the year ahead, according to C. Britt Beemer, CEO of America’s Research Group [ARG], who issued his 2008 “Winners and Losers” list of retailers (via Retailer Daily).

The “Winners and Losers” (complete list below) are determined by how well they did in retaining Christmas customers from last year.

Several well-known retailers are at the bottom of the list. “Star Performers from last year, Costco (COST), JC Penney (JCP) and Barnes & Noble (BKS), fell short,” Beemer said.

He added:

[A] number of major names, such as Macy’s (M), are in trouble over the long run, and we will undoubtedly see more retail bankruptcies in the New Year.

In all, the weekend before Christmas was lackluster, with only 38.7% of shoppers out just before Christmas, according to the sixth and final America’s Research Group/UBS Christmas 2008 Survey this weekend.

That’s the lowest number in the six years since the question has been asked in ARG Christmas surveys.

Over the weekend, Wal-Mart led in stores shopped, attracting over two-thirds of consumers:

• Wal-Mart: 69.0% (33.0% in 2007)
• Target (TGT): 21.0% (16.8% in 2007)
• Sears (SHLD): 17.1% (20.4% in 2007)
• JCPenney: 15.1% (20.7% in 2007)
• Best Buy (BBY): 14.2% (12.9% in 2007)
• Toys R Us: 13.4% (12.6% in 2007)

A large majority (68.5%) of shoppers said they are 90% or more done with shopping this year, the highest level since 2002. A greater number of parents are finished with children’s gifts (74.8%), the highest level since 2003.

Gift cards as a category are down to 51.5%, the lowest level since 2005. Only 11.8% of parents, compared with 26.3% in 2007, said that they bought gift cards for their children this Christmas as there was no “must have” gift.

The top gifts this Christmas:

• Toys: 34.7% (36.1% in 2007)
• Electronics: 26.8% (23.9% in 2007)
• Children’s clothes: 26.7% (15.9% in 2007)
• Video games: 18.1% (15.3% in 2007)
• Gift cards: 12.0% (23.8% in 2007)

The top gifts at Wal-Mart this year:

• Toys: 44.3% (45.8% in 2007)
• Children’s clothes: 26.5% (14.2% in 2007)
• Video games: 22.5% (16.2% in 2007)
• Electronics: 19.5% (18.0% in 2007)
• DVDs: 15.8% (15.9% in 2007)

ARG/UBS Winners and Losers 2008

Star Performers: keeping 90% or more of their Christmas shoppers coming back this season

Wal-Mart: 91.2%

Strong Performance: keeping 80% to 89% of their Christmas shoppers

Books A Million: 80.0%

Above Average to Good: keeping 70% to 79% of their Christmas shoppers

• Target: 79.1%
• JCPenney: 79.0%
• Old Navy: 78.9%
• Best Buy: 78.3%
• Big Lots (BIG): 78.0%
• The Gap (GPS): 75.4%
• TJ Maxx: 74.8%
• Home Depot (HD): 74.6%
• Kmart: 73.2%
• Borders (BGP): 73.0%
• Kohl’s (KSS): 72.2%
• Sears: 71.0%
• Toys R Us: 70.8%
• Barnes & Noble: 70.8%
• Circuit City (CCTYQ.PK): 70.7%

Retailers in Trouble: keeping 69% and below of their Christmas shoppers

• CVS: 69.8%
• Costco: 68.1%
• American Eagle (AEO): 67.3%
• Lowe’s (LOW): 66.7%
• Macy’s: 65.4%
• Sam’s Club: 65.1%
• Belk (BLKIA.PK): 64.2%
• Walgreens (WAG): 61.0%
• Dillard's (DDS): 55.4%
• Sports Authority (TSA): 51.8%

About the data: The America’s Research Group/UBS 2008 Christmas Survey consisted of 1,000 telephone interviews conducted Saturday and Sunday, December 20 and 21, 2008 at ARG headquarters in Charleston, SC. UBS has teamed with ARG for six surveys this Christmas season.

Comments

[BlueOkie:]

I wonder how good this survey has been in past years. Right now it is just a bunch of numbers.

2008 Dec 29 08:46 AM

[MrsLinarcos:]

Sears is in trouble and it's not on the list of being in trouble, sounds like Jim Cramer, he can't see that Sears is in trouble. Only the associates and the customers see it.

2008 Dec 29 08:49 AM

[billddrummer:]

I question the statistic about Circuit City, when their own attorney said sales dropped 43-50% since the November 10 bankruptcy filing.

www.twice.com/article/...

That would suggest inclusion on the troubled list to me.

2008 Dec 29 01:41 PM

[mkreisel:]

I went to a Circuit City store recently. It was supposed to be in liquidation. However, its big screen TVs are still 20% more expensive than on Amazon.com, despite the 30% off tag.

It deserves to go out of business!

2008 Dec 30 03:56 AM

[grandfather:]

Cuircuit City has done it again shut down a major DC center in Walnut Calif mostly too get rid of all there 10 plus year employes so that leaves more cash for the ceos thats why we shop at Best Buy and you should too Circuit City .....RIP .....

Jan 10 02:17 PM

[grandfather:]

Boy..O .Boy Circuit City just dosent get it a few months ago some of there 10 year best associates at the stores were fired because they made to much money well the associates came back with a law suit and won now they going to shut down there DC wharehouse in walnut Ca and they have 20 year + accociates there....

Jan 10 02:44 PM