The Chicago Fed National Activity Index - December 2012

by: Sold At The Top

The latest release of the Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index (CFNAI) indicated a weakening for the national economy, with the index falling to a very low growth level of 0.02 from a notably weak level of -0.27 in November. The three-month moving average improved slightly to a weak level of -0.11. The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity collected into four overall categories of production and income; employment, unemployment, and income; personal consumption and housing; and sales, orders, and inventories.

The Chicago Fed regards a value of zero for the total index as indicating that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend rate, while a negative value indicates below average growth. A value at or below -0.70 for the three-month moving average of the national activity index (CFNAI-MA3) indicates that the national economy has either just entered or continues in recession.