Things That Should Happen in 2009, But Won't

By Rob Weigand

The phrase “off balance sheet” will be permanently removed from the global vocabulary.

Barack Obama and Congress will jointly pledge to reduce the size of the Federal Budget by 20% before the end of his first term, with every dollar of that savings going towards tax cuts that really pay for themselves.

A broad consortium of US CEOs will sign a pledge to smooth their salaries down to the level of their European counterparts by the end of Obama’s first term.

American universities will sign a pledge that limits all further tuition increases to the rate of CPI inflation.

The last remaining US Auto Manufacturer will spend at least five times more on research and development than marketing and advertising and finally build a car people want to drive.

The quest to produce the first 100 mpg car will attract the global brainpower that has been siphoned off by financial engineering over the past 10-15 years.

What remains of this brainpower will be directed at developing clean coal- and safer uranium-based electricity generation.

Active money managers from all disciplines — equities, fixed income, currencies, hedge funds — will refund any fees they’ve “earned” that are not transparently related to alpha generation, roll their clients’ remaining wealth into passive index strategies, and pursue more honest lines of work.

Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s will admit they don’t know anything about rating bonds.

Google Finance will publish free online spreadsheets where investors can calculate whether or not their active money manager generated true vs. dirty alpha, and offer a Monster.com-type information sharing system so everyone can see the average market price managers charged for true alpha.

A few additional items for the list, more for the fun of it:

Bill Miller will redeem his reputation by publishing a book entitled “Equity Analysis is Descriptive, Not Predictive.”

Nouriel Roubini will cheer up.

Jerry Jones will either let the Cowboys play football or change his surname to Steinbrenner.

George Bush will publish his memoirs, entitled “I Never Understood the First Thing About Anything.”

Arthur Laffer will sue George Bush, claiming he had first dibs on that title.

Jim Glassman (author of "Dow 36,000") will join the lawsuit, quickly followed by the CNBC pundits, at which point the suit will turn into a class action.

Dick Cheney will undergo a Scrooge-like epiphany and devote the rest of his life to explaining to people why an economic system that promotes a consumption-based lifestyle that gradually poisons the planet is a form of collective suicide.

Comments

[Roger Knights:]

The government will buy the Big Three, donate them to the UAW with an attached gift card reading "Sink or Swim," and wash its hands of the mess.

2008 Dec 30 02:39 PM

[Tony Petroski:]

Al Gore will give up his peace prize and donate the monetary award to the poor so we can heat our homes during this freezing period of global warming.

2008 Dec 30 07:52 PM

[nmelendez:]

Robert Schiff will declare an end to the bear and the beginning of a Super Bull.

2008 Dec 30 08:19 PM

[punk_ash:]

I think we will see that Bush/Cheney were not the root cause of any of the problems. Good article nevertheless.

2008 Dec 30 10:23 PM

[Teutonic Kn...:]

I'd like to add one if I may although it would be highly unpopular.

President Obama would roll-back salaries of Congress, both Houses by 10%; freeze civil service pay, and eliminate their local special supplement.

A similar case in point: In the aftermath of the 1998 Asian financial crisis, even some leading Asian countries showed leadership albeit symbolic; when then Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (SAR) Chief Executive Tung Chee Hwa decreed a roll-back of civil service compensation to pre-1997 level. Singapore former prime minister Lee Kwan Yew was instrumental in influencing a similar cut in pay. The American people have fallen into hard times.

2008 Dec 30 11:22 PM

[john s. gordon:]

sr9web - bush & cheney need to be bashed. also rumsfeld & wolfowitz. shinseki should be given a medal for telling it like it is.
> jack

2008 Dec 31 09:10 AM

[Guero:]

Good list, except maybe we should add in there "hang Madoff by his testes"....also I couldn't give a rats ass about Jerry Jones or the Cowboys.

2008 Dec 31 10:42 AM

[petetoth:]

On Dec 30 08:19 PM [e-mail] wrote:

> Robert Schiff will declare an end to the bear and the beginning of
> a Super Bull.

Do you mean PETER Schiff?

2008 Dec 31 11:44 AM

[petetoth:]

I'd lose the Cowboys bit (even though I agree) as it seems out of place.

2008 Dec 31 11:46 AM

[gotnochips:]

MORE THAT WILL NOT HAPPEN:

Congress will limit itself from serving more than two terms.

Congress will refrain from voting for their own raises.

Lawmakers will stop drawing their full salary after serving just one term, or at retireme

Lawmakers will pass laws that ensure that individuals are responsible for their actions. For instance, people who borrow money will be made aware they have to pay it back or there will be unpleasant consequences.

2008 Dec 31 12:15 PM

[tinman:]

It's nice to dream.

Jan 01 04:08 PM

[ponto:]

Congrats, deadly accurate. What is your #1 now?


On 2008 Dec 30 02:39 PM Roger Knights wrote:

> The government will buy the Big Three, donate them to the UAW with
> an attached gift card reading "Sink or Swim," and wash its hands
> of the mess.

Jun 21 09:25 PM

[Robert A. W...:]

Since writing this article, the thing I'd add to the list and move up to the number 1 spot is that citizens and leaders of government need to wake up to the fact that we've already entered the early stages of the end game for the fossil fuel-based global economy, and whether we like it or not, dramatic, disruptive changes lie ahead. My prediction is that the first strong message we'll receive regarding these changes will be when traders believe the global economy is recovering and oil spikes back up over $100 a barrel, which will thwart the recovery. Then everyone will lapse into a "where can we go from here" funk, and the realization that capitalization is not such a well-oiled system without cheap energy. In answer to your next thought -- but a new technology will emerge -- if $150 a barrel didn't spark R&D on this new technology, then believe me, nothing will. Forget "conservation." The buzzword for 2010 and beyond is "curtailment," as in using about 75% less energy per household in the developed world than we're currently using. See you at the community garden!

Jun 29 07:28 AM