Netflix (NFLX) boasts a strong performance history for both longs and shorts as traders prep for the company's Q4 results in today's after-hours session. The stock has demonstrated a consistent tendency of adding to its earnings-driven after-hours direction in the following regular session on the heels of gains and declines.
NFLX is slated to report Q4 results after the bell tonight, and it is expected to report a loss of $0.14 per share on sales of $934.5 million, according to the mean estimate of analysts polled by Capital IQ.
NFLX is showing a long-term tendency to widen its post-earnings share move between the sessions, doing so in 24 of the last 36 quarters for which we've tracked results (67% of the time). The near-term performance favors widening, seeing more-aggressive, same-direction trade in the following regular session in nine of the last 12 quarters.
Looking deeper into the performance data, NFLX has recorded an after-hours gain in 15 of those quarters we've tracked, adding to its gains the next day in 9 quarters (60% of the time). The stock has recorded an after-hours decline in 21 quarters, adding to its evening declines in next-day trade in 16 quarters (76% of the time).
Here's the historical performance data:
- On Oct. 23, 2012, NFLX tumbled 16.3% in after-hours trade after meeting on Q3 revenue and guiding for a Q4 loss. The stock cut its downside the next day, ending the Oct. 24 regular session off 11.8%.
- On July 24, 2012, NFLX cratered 14.3% in night trade after topping Q2 earnings estimates but also warning for Q4. The stock was hammered the next day, ending the July 25 regular session down 25%.
- On April 23, 2012, NFLX tumbled 16.1% in after-hours trade after beating on Q1 revenue but also offering weak growth projections. The stock narrowed its downside the next day, closing the April 24 regular session off 13.9%.
- On Jan. 25, 2012, NFLX jumped 12.9% in evening trade after topping Q4 expectations. The stock soared higher the next day, rising 22% by the regular session close on Jan. 26.
- On Oct. 24, 2011, NFLX plummeted 26.8% in after-hours trade after topping Q3 estimates but also issuing lower-than-expected Q4 guidance. The stock slid further the next day, closing the Oct. 25 regular session down 34.9%.
- On July 25, 2011, NFLX cratered 9.6% in evening trade after missing Q2 revenue expectations and setting its Q3 guidance below Street estimates. The stock cut its downside the next day, ending the July 26 regular session off 5.1%.
- On April 25, 2011, NFLX dropped 4.9% in after-hours action after beating Q1 expectations but also issuing mixed Q2 guidance. The stock headed deeper south the next day, closing the April 26 regular session down 9%.
- On Jan. 26, 2011, NFLX surged 8.8% in after-hours trade after posting mixed Q4 results and setting its Q1 guidance above estimates. The stock jumped even higher the following day, closing the Jan. 27 regular session up 15.2%.
- On Oct. 20, 2010, the stock advanced 9% in after-hours trading after the company beat with Q3 results. Shares rose an even stronger 12.7% the next day.
- On July 21, 2010, the stock fell 9.1% after a revenue miss and an earnings beat. The stock fell 13.4% the next day.
- On April 21, 2010, NFLX gained 1.5% in evening trade after meeting revenue expectations and setting its guidance mostly in line with Street estimates. The stock soared the following day, closing the April 22 regular session up 15.2%.
- On Jan. 27, 2010, NFLX shares surged 13.8% in after-hours trade after the company reported better-than-expected results and guidance. The stock jumped even higher the next day, closing the Jan. 28 regular session up 23.6%.
- On Oct. 22, 2009, the stock fell 2.2% after a Q3 beat and Q4 revenue guidance that straddled the Street view. Shares rebounded to gain 10.6% the next day.
- On July 23, 2009, NFLX slipped 0.6% in extended-hours trade despite beating Q2 earnings expectations and setting its guidance in a range that straddled the Street view. The stock added to its downside the following day, ending the July 24 regular session down 9.1%.
- On April 23, 2009, NFLX declined 4.6% in evening action despite reporting better-than-expected results and setting in-line guidance. It slid further into the red the following day, ending down 5.7%.
- On Jan. 26, 2009, NFLX gained 8.2% in after-hours trade after topping Q4 expectations. The stock soared higher the following day, closing the Jan. 27 regular session up 15.5%.
- On Oct. 20, 2008, the stock fell 1.2% during evening trading after a Q3 beat but Q4 guidance below the Street view. The loss swelled to 12.4% the next day.
- On July 25, 2008, NFLX advanced 5.8% in pre-market trade after beating earnings expectations. The cut back its gain a bit in the following regular session, ending the day up 4.2%.
- On April 21, 2008, NFLX plummeted 12.7% in after-hours trade after coming in shy on sales and setting mixed guidance. The stock added to its downside on April 22, losing 23.7% by the closing bell.
- On Jan. 23, 2007, the stock fell 1.9% evening trading despite largely topping with Q4 results but also issuing guidance that appeared to disappoint the Street. The issue fell 7.6% the next day.
- On Oct. 22, 2007, the stock jumped 13.5% in evening trading after reporting ahead of the Street with Q3 results and guiding higher for Q4 and the full year. The gain was pared just slightly, to 12.9% the next day.
- On July 23, 2007, NFLX dropped 4.4% in night trade after missing Q2 sales estimates and guiding below Street views. Shares fell further the next day, ending the regular session down 6.9%.
- On April 18, 2007, NFLX tumbled 11.5% in pre-market trade after missing Q1 sales estimates, meeting on EPS and issuing guidance that could miss expectations. However, shares bounced slightly during the regular session and closed down a less steep 9.4%.
- On Jan. 24, 2007, NFLX gained 10.3% in after-hours trade after the company met on revenue and beat on EPS. The bulk of that upside turned south in the next day's regular session as NFLX closed Jan. 25 trade up a mere 2.2%.
- On Oct. 23, 2006, NFLX soared 13.2% in after-hours trade after the company blew past Q3 results. It churned even higher in the Oct. 24 regular session, ending the day up 18.5%.
- On July 24, 2006, shares tumbled 20.6% in evening trading hours after the company missed with its latest revenue figure and guided for lower revs. The loss was largely repeated during the next day?s regular trading session when shares ended down 20.9%.
- On April 24, 2006, shares advanced 5.6% after the company topped with Q1 results and guided higher. The gain was trimmed to 1.4% the next day.
- On January 24, 2006, NFLX jumped 10.2% in after-hours trade when the company topped Q4 estimates and guided for Q1 sales to be ahead of Street views. Shares soared further the next day, ending the regular session up 15.5%.
- On Oct. 19, 2005, NFLX slimmed down 5.5% in evening action after the company missed sales expectations and set its revenue guidance in a range that could come in below the then-current estimates. NFLX closed the Oct. 20 regular session down 9.5%.
- On July 25, 2005, NFLX jumped 12% in evening trade, after it beat Q2 EPS estimates and raised its sales outlook. The stock managed to hold its gains although it could not add to them during the following day session. It closed up 12% that day.
- On April 21, 2005, NFLX tumbled 8.1% in after-hours trade after the company reported a narrower-than-expected loss but issued revenue guidance below current Street estimates. It narrowed its next-day movement slightly, closing the April 22 regular session down 7.8%.
- NFLX ramped up 15.1% in the Jan. 24, 2005 after-hours session after the company beat Q4 expectations and issued a Q1 outlook ahead of the current analyst view. It saw the bulk of those gains disappear the next day as NFLX closed out the Jan. 25 regular session with a mere 1.7% rise.
- Prior to the 2005 and 2006 events the issue was one of the most consistent movers between the sessions in 2004, posting wider next-day closing levels following its four previous after-hours earnings reports.
- NFLX was crushed for a 36.9% decline the night of Oct. 14, 2004 after the company reported improved results over the year ago level but set cautious guidance. It was hit for more aggressive declines the next day, sliding 40.9% by the closing bell.
- NFLX was punished for a 15.3% decline the night of July 15, 2004 after the company posted in-line revenue results but missed on EPS. It was pummeled the next day, closing out the regular session down 28%.
- On April 15, 2004 NFLX cratered 11.7% in after-hours trade after topping expectations and issuing in-line guidance. Sellers carved out deeper declines the next day, pushing it down 16.9% by the closing bell.
- On Jan. 21, 2004 NFLX ramped up 10% in after-hours trade after besting the Street view and raising its guidance. The stock flew higher the next day, adding 18% by the close.
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.