Ten Micro Predictions for 2009

Rather than adding to the chorus of predictions about the price of oil, gold and the dollar in 2009 -- as well as the S&P 500 in general -- I wanted to offer some predictions that are micro in nature.

1. New York Times (NYT) will be sold to avoid shutting down. The sales of its Boston properties, cutting of its dividend and mortgaging of its headquarters will not be enough to refinance its debt in 2009. The Times will be forced to seek out a friendly purchaser, more likely to be Mort Zuckerman, Eli Broad, Terry Semel or Ron Burkle than Rupert Murdoch because of News Corp's (NWS) own financial challenges.

2. Yahoo! (YHOO) will appoint an inside board member as CEO by the end of February (either Gary Chapple, Maggie Wilderotter or V.J. Joshi), which will be panned by the business media and employees as uninspiring. Current President Sue Decker will immediately leave the company and take a job later in the year working for Warren Buffett at Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A). Microsoft (MSFT) and Yahoo! will announce a friendly "merger" by the end of the summer.

3. Terry Semel will buy a media property through his investment firm and effectively run it (a la Sam Zell). After all the bad press from his days at Yahoo!, Semel won't be content to stay on the sidelines.

4. CBS (CBS) will be spun off from Sumner Redstone's control and Les Moonves will be removed as CEO. Redstone's debt restructuring talks with the banks will force him to jettison his stake in CBS and hang on instead to Viacom (VIA.B) . The network will be sold to another media company and Les Moonves will immediately move on. Home Depot (HD) cofounder Ken Langone will be among the new owners of the company.

5. Howard Stern will announce he's not re-signing with Sirius XM (SIRI) and instead retire; Sirius will restructure through Chapter 11 with Mel Karmazin staying on. Disappointed in his lack of influence as part of Sirius, Stern will throw in the towel and announce he's retiring after his five-year contract ends in 2010. He will stay retired for nine months before announcing he's returning to terrestrial radio.

6. Google (GOOG) will buy geospatial satellite operator GeoEye (GEOY). Google will see providing the map images (and searching any location on Earth) that appear on Google Maps, Google Earth and its G1 mobile phone as strategic, as well as in line with its interest in space in general. Google's stock will end 2009 at $350.

7. Women's retailers will face bankruptcy. Ann Taylor (ANN), Talbots (TLB) and Charming Shoppes (CHRS) will all announce bankruptcy before the summer, as cautious women shoppers stay away from these retailers and tighten their purse strings. Chico's (CHS) will teeter on the edge of bankruptcy but survive the year.

8. Bill Gates' investment firm will orchestrate a takeover of Crocs (CROX) in his first active investment. Faith in the Crocs products, which are used by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation with children in Africa, as well as frustration with the current management, will spur Gates into taking over the footwear company.

9. Hugh Hefner will make a lowball offer to take Playboy (PLA) private with several other friendly individual investors after disillusionment in the low stock price. This action will spur interest from a larger foreign investor to buy the company with the promise of letting Hefner continue to run it independently.

10. Dry bulk shippers like DryShips (DRYS) and TBS International (TBSI) will triple in value before June 1 as the general market rallies, before declining 50% in the second half of the year.

Comments

[Short Trade...:]

Bold!! I don't agree with the MSN Yahoo deal, in this environment the only thing Yahoo has to offer is traffic, and MSN will not know what to do with the traffic they have. I don't see it happening. Will be sad to see the Grey Lady fall, and as a matter of national pride, we should throw them a rope.

Jan 02 05:21 AM

[Boubou:]

I am basing my actions on this assesment which I find persuasive.
Actua;ly i always incline to believe stuff with a foreign accent, but I'm trying not to let this weigh too heavily.


www.leap2020.eu/GEAB-N...

Jan 02 08:16 AM

[dead elvis:]

what predictions did you make for 2008???-$INDU=20,000?

would like to see how you did-please refer me to prior web site
thank you
DE

Jan 02 09:54 AM

[dead elvis:]

I predict you wont answer me.

Jan 02 10:26 AM

[sl62:]

>>Rather than adding to the chorus of predictions about the price of oil, gold and the dollar in 2009 -- as well as the S&P 500 in general -- I wanted to offer some predictions that are micro in nature.<<

Why? I don't get your motivation here...nor your pure "conjecture" in most cases. Did someone commission you to make this weird list of gunk up? Are there ramifications to your well-being if you are wrong? Or is this just you having a little "fun with weird opinions"? Are you a famous fortune teller or something? I've never heard of you...

Jan 02 11:00 AM

[shure46:]

Help !!!! My computer is broken !!!!! ----- Apparently my seeking alpha home page has been hijacked by some kind of psychic hotline adware ..

Jan 02 11:26 AM

[shure46:]

I have a prediction - Hugh Hefner will die of a Viagra overdose

Jan 02 11:28 AM

[shure46:]

OK seriously , I do have a prediction ........ I believe HD TV and Radio is going to change terrestrial TV and Radio .... The alternate channels will give the terrestrials more leeway to get racier content and compete with satellite TV and Radio ........ Of course the alternate channels will have parental controls , which the kids will easily disable ....... but this entire push for HD TV and Radio , is to get those alternate sub channels over the airwaves , in order to get the R - rated content not allowed at this time .... The terrestrial media knows they need the ability to provide more sex , violence , and graphic content , to compete ........ and that is exactly what will be allowed on the new sub channels soon ........ and I expect to see ALL TV and Radio eventually become a Pay per view / listen , subscription in some form or another

Jan 02 11:39 AM

[Dan Jacome:]

CROX sales are eroding, Gates would have to act of out of desperation to generate a takeout. Sure, the deal would barely dent his wallet, but it'd make him look foolish and as if he was "dumbing down" on a bad investment. No way - their brand quickly tapered and you can see what Ive been saying about the stock since it was north of $15.

seekingalpha.com/autho...

Jan 02 11:42 AM

[Sworntwofun:]

Obviously you dont know Howard Stern very well HE WILL NEVER NEVER RETURN TO TERRESTRIAL RADIO AND YOU CAN TAKE THAT TO THE BANK!

Jan 02 12:12 PM

[dead elvis:]

Mr Eric,since you didnt answer me of what your predictions were for 2008, i will make a prediction-.....

By the way you squint in your photograph- you will need corrective lenses in 2009.

Jan 02 03:06 PM

[mydogniles:]

sworn...was thinking the same thing...no way HS is going back.... Sure as hell hope he doesn't retire either...will kill Sirius in which i hold shares...and will miss his show a lot...

long live howard...

Jan 02 03:22 PM

[Stockhound:]

An insider taking the CEO job makes sense if YHOO intents on doing a deal with MSFT.

Jan 02 06:46 PM

[bdp:]

TBSI, DRYS, DSX, GNK... I bought them all and I have made back 40% of my Sirius loss so far. I think his prediction on the shipping companies may have some merit. (I still have held on to 100000 shares of SIRI though. Just in case.)

Jan 02 08:31 PM

[gdog:]

This guy's either getting serious tips (from sources in serious violation of SEC regulations), or he's a loud mouthed idiot trying to manipulate the market.

So which is it...

As cynical as I am, he's still more than likely an idiot.

Jan 02 11:20 PM

[Organic cha...:]

Egad people! They are PREDICTIONS and he isn't asking u to take them to the bank. Make use of what u will but remember few people bitch about the Farmers Almanac and its "predictions" because people have accepted they are predictions. By definition.

Jan 03 09:11 AM

[Gumby:]

I predict the elimination of wash sale tax treatment... You can sell and buy same stock the next day and take tax writeoff.. Hey, everybody's computer is fast enough... This is a stupid old tax code based green shaded accountants in the bck rooms that needed time to settle the transactions...One month is like an eon in today's Internet Age.!!

Jan 05 02:32 PM

[Gumby:]

I predict the death of FAX MACHINES IN 2009! Why those stupid fuddy duddy machines for blue haired old geezers that keep complaining of getting faxed advertisments.. Why dont they toss those machines at the recycling centers at once!

Jan 05 02:35 PM

[Gumby:]

I predict that I will smash my fried FAX MACHINE WITH MY TRUSTY 10 LB SLEDGEHAMMER IN A NITWITTED CELEBRATION OF THE DEATH OF FAX MACHINES AROUND THE WORLD AT 9600 BPS.... HAHAHA NO WAY TOO SLOW!!! I WILL POST IT AT UTUBE.COM!

Jan 05 02:36 PM

[connorport:]

Most of these predictions are idiotic. Sounds good in the market conditions at hand but has no roots. Where were all these genius's six months ago. everyones smart now. let me make a prediction...the market is in a recession, the US will be the last to react to there stimulus as to let the other nations get theres going first to see what happens, the market will move upward by the end of 2009 falling in the last quarter on retail sales concerns at christmas time, the first quarter of 2010 will be a record jump in the market as profits jump to new highs on the businesses that survived to gain additional market share from the businesses that failed. This is a natural clensing of the market as in mother nature. Every so many years a plague comes along to clense the world of the weak. This is not a bad thing if you have the medicine to cure the problem.

I think there should be no "gimme money so i can spend it" stimulus packages only stimulus that create jobs. Jobs = people spending creating more jobs etc...

Whats do i know.

Jan 07 04:12 PM

[ITS A SIRIU...:]

Stern will re-sign with sat rad and siri-xm will not file chapter 11 in 2009 (although they should) Siri will do a reverse split later in the year to avoid delistment unless the delistment rules are suspended another additional 6 months.

Jan 12 08:13 AM

[Mexx:]

Good entertainment value, that is about it.

Anyone taking Eric's predictions more seriously than that is a total fool.

Jan 12 05:48 PM

[Retail Bob:]

Disagree strongly on Chico's (CHS).

They have cash stored up and are not losing money that fast. Last count I believe there books say they have over $250 million saved and have secured lines of credit. If one of their direct competitors does fall, the recovery would look very good for them. ...and they have done serious house cleaning lately.

Feb 05 09:35 AM