Seeking Alpha
Profile| Send Message| ()  

Happy New Year! If market history is any guide, 2009 should begin on a good note.

We analyzed the DJIA going back to 1900 and looked for years where the index was down 20% or more. Surprisingly there were only 11 instances including 2008; and only one that occurred after World War II! Below we highlight a month-by-month picture of the years following those nasty declines. In every year but one the market has gained for an average price return of 4.07% (January, 1904 the Dow was unched; this was counted as a gain for the purposes of the chart).


Results vary for the following months; although there is a generally positive bias for the year.

Monthly changes
Source: January: Expect Gains