What a crappy year 2008 was for commodities! Will they rebound in 2009? If you believe, as I do, that we are in the middle of a secular bull market for commodities, then current prices represent a tremendous buying opportunity.
Jim Rogers has been saying it best lately - that you want to buy assets where the fundamentals are unimpaired. And the only asset class where the fundamentals are currently unimpaired is commodities - in fact, the fundamental story for many commodities has even improved since the financial crisis took hold, as there is a lot of supply coming off the market.
Jim is also fond of referencing the performance of commodities during the Great Depression, where they were the first asset class to turn up because there was no supply.
Since I agree with Jim's point of view, I decided to research specific commodity picks experts are making for 2009. My "expert" criteria is highly biased, based on the two people I've been following the closest during this commodity bull run - Jim Rogers and Marc Faber - because of their prescient calls and knack for spotting commodity trends before the herd.
- Likes agriculture and says prices are down due to forced selling, not fundamentals, which have actually improved. "Farmers can't get loans for fertilizer now."
- Also loves oil - says it has been crushed - its price is below the cost of production - he's been buying more, and believes it will roar back in a big way.
- Says 2009 will be a "total disaster" for the global economy.
- Believes commodities have corrected within a bull market, and there are opportunities to be found there.
- Sees significant inflation coming as a result of the Fed's actions.
- He continues to like gold and gold miners - believes exploration companies are very depressed with respect to the price of physical gold.
- Oil at this level is becoming attractive, as are oil companies.
- Shares his specific picks at the 7:45 mark of this interview.