Telling Statistics on the News Business

For a proposal I’m writing, I want to compile key stats that show the state of the news business (at least the incumbents, plus a view of demand). Here’s what I have. Do you have other stats that reveal the state?

Bad news…

• Newspaper stocks fell an average of 83.3% in 2008—twice the fall of the S&P 500—wiping out $64.5 billion in market value, according to Alan Mutter’s Newsosaur blog.

• Since 1994—and the release of the commercial web browser—newspaper audience penetration has fallen a third, from 23% to 16%. In that time, circulation fell 14% (59 million to 50 million, according to the Newspaper Association of America) while population rose 20%.

• Viewership for network evening news continues to decline, to 23.1 million in 2007, according to Nielsen. The median age of network evening news viewers is 61 in 2008, according to Magna Global USA.

• Since 1994, newspaper print advertising revenue fell on an inflation-adjusted basis by 10% (from $34,109 million in 1994 dollars to $42,209 million in 2007 dollars, says NAA).

•Since 1994, the number of newspapers in America fell from 1,548 to 1,422, according to NAA.

•In 2008 alone, 15,586 newspaper jobs were lost, according to the Papercuts blog.

• In 2008, the Pew Research Center found that the internet surpassed newspapers as a primary source of news for Americans (following TV). For young people, 18 to 29, the internet will soon surpass TV, at nearly double the rate for newspapers.

• 54% of Americans do not trust news media, according to a Harris survey. A Sacred Heart University survey says only 20% of Americans believe or trust most news media.

• Jeffrey Cole of the University of Southern California Annenberg School’s Center for the Digital Future found in a 2007 survey that young people 12 to 25 will “never read a newspaper.” Never.

•In 2008, the American Society of Newspaper Editors took “paper” out of its name.

Good news…

• But newspaper online site audience has long since surpassed print circulation, reaching 69 million unique users in fall 2008, according to NAA.

•And the total online news audience is about 100 million—more than half total U.S. internet users—according to ComScore.

Comments

[Steven Hansen:]

"But newspaper online site audience has long since surpassed print circulation, reaching 69 million unique users in fall 2008, according to NAA."

now they only have to find a way to make money on this traffic.

Jan 04 07:30 PM

[NP Refugee:]

As someone who was there in the NP online fray since late '95, I am of the opinion that there are some givens:

* An editorial dept will never be sustained by online ad revenue in neither the current online ad model, or the current editorial newsroom model-at least for most NPs that would be considered local and not national. For that model to work, CPMs would have to be multiplied by a factor of 10.
* The answer is/has always been there, but ego and arrogance have always kept the NP industry from solving their problem. They've never been able to get out of their own way.
* The traditional NP can't be fighting with the online group, whether the online is treated as internal or as an external entity.
* The NP industry has allowed the AP to sell its birth rite to the search engines where the money is being made. What a great deal! NPs pay to create the content, GIVE it to the AP (or pay the AP for the privilege for accepting their content), who, in turn, takes money from the search engines to undercut both the print and online editions of the papers.

The ONLY answer I see (trust me--14 years of experience here) is for the NP industry to create their own news search engine, market it heavily in a collaborative effort, etc. Their NP search engine should allow for search results to be organized by release date. Imagine the ad revenue that would shift from the search engines to the NPs!! Whatever they do---keep the AP out of the equation; they are part of the problem, not the solution.

Jan 05 10:58 AM

[Randy Bennett:]

Jeff:

Let me offer some additional statistics on the newspaper industry. As a representative of the newspaper trade association, naturally the data will be more upbeat, but nonetheless paint a more complete picture of the industry. Clearly, the industry is facing huge financial challenges and everyone I speak to agrees for the need to re-structure and re-focus newspaper enterprises. This is not an argument for status quo. But if you step back, the medium itself is not in dire straits – audience is holding steady and newspapers continue to be an effective advertising vehicle.

For example:

• Scarborough Research reports that more than 100 million adults read a printed newspaper on an average weekday (and more than 115 million on Sunday). Compare that to 94 million that watch the Super Bowl, 23 million who have viewed American Idol and 64 million who typically watch the late local news.

• Meanwhile, newspapers’ digital audience has grown more than 60 percent since 2005. More than 40 percent of active Internet users visit a newspaper Web site in a typical month.

• Newspaper readership in the top 50 markets has declined about 6 percent in the past five years (according to Scarborough). Compare that to a 10 percent decline in prime time audience and a 6 percent decline in early evening local TV news in 2007 alone.

• 62 percent of 18-24 year olds and 25-34 year olds read a newspaper in an average week. 64 percent and 66 percent, respectively, visited a newspaper Web site in the past seven days.

• According to Google research, 56 percent of respondents to a 2008 survey either researched or purchased at least one product they saw in a newspaper the previous month. Of those who researched a product from a print ad, 67 percent research online and 48 percent visited a store. For those who saw a product online and then saw it in a newspaper, 48 percent considered the product more trustworthy and 52 percent were more likely to buy the product. The research results are available at: www.naa.org/docs/Publi....

• A recent poll by independent research Doug Schoen showed that 75 percent of adults and 84 percent of “elites” read newspapers everyday or several times a week to inform them about the election. More than half agreed that newspapers provided definitive information that guided both the networks and cable stations in reporting the news. A summary of the results appears here: www.huffingtonpost.com....

• According to consultant John Morton in a recent AJR article, newspaper companies that have reported results for the first nine months of 2008 had a weighted average operating profit margin of 11.3 percent, clearly down but still above what is typical for most non-media businesses. He concludes that article by saying “Overall, the beleaguered newspaper industry's financial health has been weakened but remains healthy by most measures. In this environment, that is an achievement.”

Obviously, I have a million of these factoids. Please let me know if more would be helpful.

Randy Bennett
SVP, Business Development
Newspaper Association of America

Jan 07 01:37 PM