Seeking Alpha
, ETF Expert (377 clicks)
Bonds, dividend investing, ETF investing, long/short equity
Profile| Send Message|
( followers)  

ETF enthusiasts can make profitable investing decisions based on government/central bank currency manipulation. For example, a little more than a month ago, I wrote "A Foreign Stock ETF for a Rapidly Declining Currency." In that article I discussed Shinzo Abe's determination to devalue the yen substantially through aggressive monetary intervention, so that Japan's exports would be more competitive on the world stage.

The beneficial trade? An investor who chose WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity (DXJ) has seen month-over-month gains of 7.9%. In contrast, unhedged iShares MSCI Japan (EWJ) is up a mere 0.5% month over month. Despite Japanese equities performing well, the rapid decline in the yen is killing the unhedged iShares vehicle.

Obviously, one key to success in the current marketplace is being on the right side of a currency's trend. This isn't always easy to do.

Readers and show listeners know that I highlighted WisdomTree's Europe Hedged Equity (HEDJ) for many months, believing it to be a better choice than an unhedged Vanguard Europe (VGK). Yet the euro that I believed was destined to remain in a downtrend in November recovered quickly in December due to the U.S. "cliff" debate; month over month, the unhedged VGK has picked up 4% whereas the hedged HEDJ has garnered 3%.

In essence, one is unlikely to know a currency's near-term trend with precision. On the other hand, a 100-day intermediate-term trendline may prove beneficial for identifying the direction of a currency or group of currencies.

Consider the circumstances associated with WisdomTree Emerging Market Currency Fund (CEW) -- an ETF that offers exposure to a basket of 15 emerging market currencies. Nearly six months ago to the day, CEW rose above an intermediate-term 100-day trendline. Moreover, the trend higher has remained intact.

(click to enlarge)

Not so surprisingly, this has favored unhedged emerging market equities over the same time period. Vanguard Emerging Markets (VWO) has picked up 19% over the past six months, whereas the S&P 500 SPDR Trust (SPY) has gained 12%.

While currencies alone cannot determine where stock markets will go, ETF investors may need to think carefully about the selection of a dollar-hedged or unhedged equity fund going forward. For instance, CurrencyShares Canadian Dollar (FXC) is below its 100-day as well as sitting near a three-month low. Understanding the struggles of the loonie (Canadian dollar) early on might keep one from jumping into the unhedged iShares MSCI Canada Fund (EWC). This fund is only up 3.1% over three months, while SPDR S&P 500 is up 5.0%, Vanguard Emerging Markets is up 7.9%, and the unhedged iShares MSCI Australia Fund (EWA) is up 9.2%.

Again, while currencies cannot tell you everything, it is hardly shocking to see EWA atop a three-month leader board. CurrencyShares Australian Dollar (FXA) has remained above its 100-day for over six months. Understanding which currencies are rising and which are being devalued can help one identify the best hedged and unhedged stock funds to buy or sell.

(click to enlarge)

Disclosure: Gary Gordon, MS, CFP is the president of Pacific Park Financial, Inc., a Registered Investment Adviser with the SEC. Gary Gordon, Pacific Park Financial, Inc, and/or its clients may hold positions in the ETFs, mutual funds, and/or any investment asset mentioned above. The commentary does not constitute individualized investment advice. The opinions offered herein are not personalized recommendations to buy, sell or hold securities. At times, issuers of exchange-traded products compensate Pacific Park Financial, Inc. or its subsidiaries for advertising at the ETF Expert web site. ETF Expert content is created independently of any advertising relationships.

Source: How ETF Investors Could Profit From Currency Devaluation