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I admit that positive real GDP growth is an underdog. But here's another case for it:
  1. Prices have fallen 1-2% since Q3. Thus, nominal GDP has to fall at least 1% if real GDP is going to fall.
  2. Nominal compensation of employees and proprietor's income (at annual rates) is at least as high in Oct. and Nov. as in Q3. (The well-publicized employment reduction should work through this item).
  3. Depreciation must be at least as high in Q4 as in Q3, because investment hasn't stopped.
  4. All of the above means that capital income has to fall at least $144 billion (at annual rates) Q3 to Q4 in order to make real GDP shrink Q3-Q4.
  5. A $144 billion capital income reduction would far exceed the cumulative reduction in capital income since the beginning of this recession.
  6. A $144 billion capital income reduction would increase labor's share to 0.683 from 0.659 a year earlier - matching the largest YOY increase in labor's share since WWII.
Source: The Case for Real Q4 GDP Growth