Retail Investor Oil Consensus for 2009

Retail investors median consensus oil price for 2009 is 60 to 70 dollars a barrel and 55% of retail investors predict oil to end 2009 between 50 and 80 dollars a barrel. This data is from a survey taken in the Oil Traders Blog about how high the oil price would be at the end of 2009.

In the more extreme scenarios, 3% predict oil to end 2009 between 10 and 20 dollars a barrel and 17% predict that oil will end 2009 above 90 dollars a barrel. The ultra bears that predict prices below 20 dollars a barrel have been diminishing by the minute. Just 4 days ago, 13% were predict oil to end `09 between 10 and 20 dollars a barrel. Quite a drop in the ultra bear camp, probably due to this recent rally.

Adding all up, retail investors are just slightly more bullish than institutional investors, (the Bloomberg Consensus estimate is $60 a barrel next year, the median of 33 analysts) but the difference is very small.

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In the institutional camp, Morgan Stanley is the most bullish investment house on the street and predicts 82 for 2009 (all institutional projections here).

The poll includes 400 votes and was taken between December 29^th and today.

Disclosure: No positions

Comments

[Ishortyou:]

I think we need to shake up ourselves from our brain washed concept that fossile fuel is the only way to move around, time for a change dont you think?

Jan 06 07:49 AM

[Crude Oil T...:]

I guess the retail investor can call it just as well as our famous TV analyst have been getting it lately.

Jan 06 08:13 AM

[mkreisel:]

Oil could very well move within a range this year, and USO will slowly die the Contango death.

Jan 06 06:01 PM

[toobad41:]

"Prediction is very difficult - especially if it is about the future." Niels Bohr, Nobel Prize in Physics.

Jan 06 06:17 PM