A Tale of Two Economies: Manufacturing vs. Services 119 comments
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It seems like a lifetime ago, when I tinkered with the idea of being an auto mechanic. It was time well spent as there is nearly nothing that I cannot fix on a car to this very day, save for that darn check engine light.
So when my wife’s car needed a clutch which did not fall under the vehicle's warranty, I knew immediately what to do. I had her take it directly to our local mechanic!
Shortly after that, I watched a special on PBS. One very knowledgeable guest whom I wish I could properly credit pointed out the basic fact that during the great depression, the bulk of the country was chiefly employed in manufacturing industries. He also pointed out that the country has shifted greatly to being service employed in the past decades and as such, does not expect the big bust to be nearly as bad as the media would like us to believe.
Looking into this theory a bit deeper, we see that industries such as construction and auto manufacturing have been hit hard. These are manufacturing industries. Wall Street has also taken its hits but consider that its investment banking services derive almost all of their income from manufacturing firms.
On the other side of the equation are companies like Sirius XM Radio (SIRI), which despite cries of depression/recession, seem to be growing revenues and cutting costs, while improving their balance sheets during these tumultuous times.
My own experience has led me to subscribe to this theory with all of my being. I work in a service industry, and business is booming for me. In fact, finding time to write seems to be my biggest challenge these days.
Years ago, former Sirius CEO Joseph Clayton made the statement that those who were betting against Sirius were betting on the wrong horse. I think these times call for a repeat of that sentiment.
Position: Long Sirius XM
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This article has 119 comments:
No Brandon, were screwed. Great depression was only hard because of purposeful manipulation by the FED to decrease the money supply...Research Jekyl Island, 1913 FED and what really caused the great depression. Brandon you need to watch the "Money Masters" on youtube to understand how the world banking system works. You might change your tune...
Now Sirius might be ok long term, if they can reinflate the bubble one more time..If they cant get out of anything paper by the end of March...
I own a manufacturing business and have see nearly all of my suppliers either outsource overseas or go under. How many of us are going to freeze and starve before we reverse the trend? This depression is just starting.
I doubt they can reinflate the bubble, as you put it but maybe they can slow the slide. Take a better look at what you're buying and try to buy American if you can. (That basically means stay out of Wal-Mart)
On Jan 07 09:52 AM ace22 wrote:
> SAT. RADIO IS A LUXURY WHEN MONEY IS TIGHT WE CUT EXPENSES WE DONT
> NEED, NICE TRY THOUGH BRADON.
On Jan 07 09:56 AM bananaz wrote:
> I agree with Relmor that it will get worse and, with no manufacturing
> base anything we try to build is done on shifting sands. We can't
> manufacture here because it is too dirty, unsafe, expensive, etc.
> We can't mine or drill because it is "environmentally unsound". I
> am for clean air and water but we have thrown the baby out with the
> bath water.
>
> I own a manufacturing business and have see nearly all of my suppliers
> either outsource overseas or go under. How many of us are going to
> freeze and starve before we reverse the trend? This depression is
> just starting.
>
> I doubt they can reinflate the bubble, as you put it but maybe they
> can slow the slide. Take a better look at what you're buying and
> try to buy American if you can. (That basically means stay out of
> Wal-Mart)
I run a mortgage servicing company and I am the bad guy for all of the national banks and government. I do the entire process from eviction to conveyance. I remove all the items, hazardous/non hazardous, change the locks, cut the grass, trim the trees/bushes, repair/tarp the roof anything they ask, basicly. I then give asset back to the bank,(Conveyance), and they call a realtor and put a sign in the yard. My business from 07-08 doubled! How many companies can say in one year we doubled our revenue? Not many! So when Relmor says things are going to get worse, believe it. Its coming! The housing mess is not over. If you want to capitalize on this open a dumpster company, no joke, dropping off 30cyd dumpsters is in high demand, atleast in SC.
Long siri..lol/ long Steelers/short CHargers....congrats to Harrison defensive player of the year 16 sacks...ouch.
Looking beyond 2009 Sirius needs to bank 300k per year in order to have cash to payoff 2014 debt.
We need to watch if they assume any new debt along the way.
I know they take in over 2 bil in revenue but how much do they spend operating?
(I like companies that have 3 years worth of operating cash/how long will it take Sirius to save that?)
I can't go for the doomsday scenarios right now. I know all about the 2012 doomsday stuff. But I can't even retire till 2012 (but I plan on going to 2019)
I'll be pissed if I have to spend old age living in a cave brewing my own beer.
It is my opinion that the shorts have already covered their positions on the 263M shares as the SP has headed down over the last two months. They are not a buy and hold group of investors. They buy to cover on the way down, and sell short on any peaks to continue taking profits. With the stock price being at below .30 for weeks now. The shorts are just hanging around keeping the price down making money on small moves. Their move to cover and go long will happen when they know the news of refinancing of debt is coming. They will know before we do, IMHO. The volume has picked up and I believe some shorts are covering, but with eager sellers who bought at .11, their not having any problem at all. This is the problem with sitting down here this long. New investors trading on percentage gains, get out quickly. It will take major news to flush this pattern of trading out.
Is the glass half full, or is the glass half empty?
Sirius is doing excellent even with sluggish subscriber growth, but then again look at our economy!
The only thing I truely want to see when the Q4 report comes out is the churn rate. If it remains under 1.7% and we see atleast an aquired subscriber growth of 300,000 for the Q4 this stock will hit atleast .50 cents. If these numbers don't get any better and the churn becomes higher we can expect this stock to go no where but down.
long siri, long live the Steel Curtain! Is it Sunday yet?
From this last report (15 Dec) to now I don't think there has been enough volume to reflect their covering those positions.
I think I have detected the standard short move. They sell right at the closing bell to open a position and then buy right at the opening to cover (drive it down 1 day and buy during resulting low the next. So I understand we are not looking at a solid 260 mil share block. I do however think it is a .coordinated pattern.
That leaves me wondering just when they are going to cover. The shares provided by Sirius have to be returned. The shorts cannot go long with them.
Can these shares be covered and used again as shorts? (do they get to use them till debt is payed? Can they actually lose money if SP rises?)
Did these shares get a vote at meeting?
On Jan 07 11:58 AM cos1000 wrote:
> Mogami
>
> It is my opinion that the shorts have already covered their positions
> on the 263M shares as the SP has headed down over the last two months.
> They are not a buy and hold group of investors. They buy to cover
> on the way down, and sell short on any peaks to continue taking profits.
> With the stock price being at below .30 for weeks now. The shorts
> are just hanging around keeping the price down making money on small
> moves. Their move to cover and go long will happen when they know
> the news of refinancing of debt is coming. They will know before
> we do, IMHO. The volume has picked up and I believe some shorts are
> covering, but with eager sellers who bought at .11, their not having
> any problem at all. This is the problem with sitting down here this
> long. New investors trading on percentage gains, get out quickly.
> It will take major news to flush this pattern of trading out.
In reading the Lent Shares agreement you will find that the number of shares currently outstanding short, are the almost the same amount of shares lent. These shares will only come back to Sirius XM when the Bonds they were lent against, maturing in 2014 are paid in full. They Bonds can be called early, but ALL Bonds must be paid in full before the shares will be returned. That means these Borrowed shares will be in the Short float until then. My point was that the first time borrowers of these shares probably covered all the way down since September and still have them in their possession to use for the purpose of shorting the stock at any level. The manipulation is as you say probably these shares and open market shares being traded daily. Their covering will happen when they choose and quickly on good company news and execution, and then shorted again. Any losses on their last short trade will be wiped out by staying long and then shorting again when the SP moves too quickly for more profits. Until these shares come off the market, the Bond Holders will be in control of the SP. The amount of Bond Debt that these shares represent is $550M issued at the time of the Merger and sold through August until September of 2008. Finding a way to remove them will be a monumental task. Until then, there will always be at least 260M shares available specifically for the purpose of shorting this stock.
On Jan 07 04:21 PM mogami_99 wrote:
> Hi, Thanks COS Giving shares to short your own stock has to be one
> of the worse moves I've ever seen. I can't believe a CEO who would
> do such a thing could ever look a share holder in the eye.
Secondly the reason these shares were lent is because on the day of the merger execution, XM no longer had shares available on the market for purchase, Long or Short. The $550M Notes were additional XM debt taken on at the time of the merger for various purposes. These notes would typically be Hedged by buyers of the Notes by shorting the underlying equity, known as Convertible Arbitrage. Without any XM shares available to enhance the sale of the Notes for Hedging, Sirius XM Radio had no choice but to lend shares directly to UBS London Branch, and Morgan Stanley the Underwriters of the XM Notes for lending to equity buyers of the notes to complete the convertible arbitrage play. Without lending the shares, the Bonds / Notes would not get many buyers and the $550M would not get raised on the open market. I believe the complicated nature of the transaction is why Mel, said investors in SIRI stock, were unsophisticated and just didn't understand the necessity or impact of the "Ugly Deal". We as shareholders are finding out just how ugly that deal was. I hope that helps.
Secondly the reason these shares were lent is because on the day of the merger execution, XM no longer had shares available on the market for purchase, Long or Short. The $550M Notes were additional XM debt taken on at the time of the merger for various purposes. These notes would typically be Hedged by buyers of the Notes by shorting the underlying equity, known as Convertible Arbitrage. Without any XM shares available to enhance the sale of the Notes for Hedging, Sirius XM Radio had no choice but to lend shares directly to UBS London Branch, and Morgan Stanley the Underwriters of the XM Notes for lending to equity buyers of the notes to complete the convertible arbitrage play. Without lending the shares, the Bonds / Notes would not get many buyers and the $550M would not get raised on the open market. I believe the complicated nature of the transaction is why Mel, said investors in SIRI stock, were unsophisticated and just didn't understand the necessity or impact of the "Ugly Deal". We as shareholders are finding out just how ugly that deal was. I hope that helps.
Been a little busy lately but just had a chance to check in. Relmor's got some good points. Overall, I think tracking this SP so closely is a bit of a waste of time (unless your day trading it). The time table is set between now and March 1. I don't know about trying to analyze daily activity at this point. If you're in down here (the bottom), not much left to do but wait. If your'e long and believe in the company and appropriate debt solutions outside of BK, only thing left to do is wait a little bit longer until plan is put into action (and as other positive news is released). Reward is high with low downside and rangebound until news to move or short decision action. Once breakout happens, it will be because failure is off the table and therefore returning to these low levels anytime soon are slim to none. Of course it will retrace some as all stocks go up and down but I look for higher lows and eventual higher highs back to more normal levels (.60 - .80). My personal price target is .55 before I sell anything. In the interim, all prices rise and fall and worrying day to day is futile at this stage of the game. Given what we know at this stage, outside of some unforseen disaster, I fail to see what takes this SP lower than its low of .113. IMHO...If I were as liquid as I wish I were, I would keep 25K shares locked up at .11/.12 for the big move and work .01/.02 moves on 100K share blocks...picking up $1K/ $2K per trade. Unfortnately November was just too bad a portfolio ass-kicker and I'm locked up for the time being. Regardless of how things play out on this stock, there is plenty of opportunity in coming days. Don't forget, once/if failure is removed (for next few years), upgrades of PT's shouldn't be far behind which will help drive up.
Mogami_99...
IB financing with hedge short has little to do with looking common shareholders in the eye. Don't forget, as a common holder, you are at the bottom rung of the public offering ladder. Though common holders have a sort of bill of rights by "law", it is rarely cared about by any public company, esp those who have a full spectrum of debt holders as SIRI does. On the financing side of such convert deals, it's age-old and and just the way the lender has to protect itself from default. Yes, it sucks for common holders but as said, those are who go under the bus first... always.
Cos1000...
Hope all is well. I agree with your assessment but to a point on a few areas. I just can't believe at this stage, of the 260M short position, that no common shorts are still in, still awaiting a possible BK (albeit, that threat of failure has become much less likely at this stage). I say there are and that current amount is not just the convert. hedge. IMHO of course. Also IMO, the hedge is done "ostensibly" to safeguard aganst default of the loan (not to take the company out of business by burying the SP for no reason). The Notes carry interest through the term of the loan on their own merit. Regardless of how many of the lent shares are in the current SI, if company failure is taken off the table, the lenders will have no choice (and no problem) but to cover their current positions. The SP is too low for them not to (with such little downside left). I can't believe the idea for the lenders is to be keeping the SP here at .12 (now that it's here) until 2014 without doing a profitable reconciliation when the time is right. So i think clearing the postion (however big it is) is easy under the right circumstances esp. with the threat of failure taken off the table (at least for next few years). In the case that the company lifts threat of failure (even temporarily) the bondholders can revert back to the life of the loans and the interest they are generating. As you say, the shares then still remain in the possession of the lenders to use as needed until 2014 (or early payoff) but to what degree all shares or any part are actually used are up to the lenders (and to what degree they feel they need to protect their investment) IMHO...I do wonder if there are any stipulations about the frequency of use of such lent shares Maybe in any one time period) as part of the lending deal. None of the prospecti say anything about it.
As previously mentioned...may want to keep your eye on CHTR for a short-term trade. They went down to .08 on Dec 31 and today closed at .17 (they closed yesterday @ .1022). They have much more debt than SIRI, (also more top line) but a fraction of shares out. I've been in and out of these guys over the years and for some reason this company seems to have a horseshoe up their arse (and a heavy SI)...currently they are restructurng deals with bondholders. just mentioning. Also...LVLT hit 1.00 today (up from .62 a few days ago). Jeez, I hate being frozen in positions...there are some great opportunities out there right now on many beaten down stocks. SIRI will have it's day soon.
I see 2/23.
I never went all in(100000 was my max buy in) because Im a wimp. There i said it, this stock has made me whimpy...
You're in a good spot. I'd keep a percentage locked in for any overnight or premarket moves and nibble with the rest. With a loose 50K shares you can get a lot done with repetetive small moves down here...I would but I'm locked up elsewhere for the time being. Best strategy for this stock is cover it two ways, long and 1 - 2 days tops with a second traunch. Use overnight to get around daytrading regs if need be. Big picture chart (9mo) clearly shows bottoming process. Question is when uptrend will start. Pure anticipation should start the rise. This stock has been beaten to a pulp and traders know it. Good luck...
Good luck on that buy...each day we get one step closer to a final resolve on this bad boy...and then some. Keep in mind, one of the perks of going through this kind of event in a stock is you get much more intimate with the company...which helps when trading future positions in the same stock in months and years to come. For many here, if looked at as a positive, this insight is a definite advantage and can pay dividends for years to come. I would never hold this stock long-term but keeping it on the board for the peaks and troughs will pay off.
Glad you've got the dog with ya!
Hey there... I can't disagree with your assessment of the possibilities in determining the composition of the SI that is out there. My point which seems to agree with yours, is that the initial short hedge is over.. The short positions out their now as legal shorts, regardless of who they are, need to locate / borrow shares from somewhere to even be considered in the reported SI numbers. These shares have been lent, borrowed, shorted, bought, and turned over many times already. We will not know how they were used, but the number of shares in SI is conspicuously similar to those originally lent. Until these shares are returned to the company they are out there for the share borrowers use..... It is my opinion that these shares were also lent to remove the "Locate" part of the legal shorting of shares for the purpose of initiating the transaction only coming into play if the closing out of their positions are made difficult because they cannot be purchased on the open market. My opinion is that is not a problem for any IB that has shorted this stock to date. Without a lot more detail, which us peons do not have access to, their is no real way to know how SI is being calculated in the numbers we see. If there is I would appreciate someone letting me know......
The experiance has been a good lesson for me.
1. Do more research
2. Watch the stock a while before you buy
3. Buy after a down turn
4. Buy what you intend on owning all at once
5. Set a bailout price and adhere to it.
Had I done the above I would have made my first buy at .12 and had 15k more shares. I paid commisions on all these buys enough to have another 2k
With 50k+ bought at .12 I would be pretty proud of myself right now. Of course this means I am not really "Long" since I intend on selling when I think things have gotten to their peak.
If you have a large block of borrowed shares you can coordinate the buying and selling to your advantage.
Right after merger the short interest went from 159 mil to 310 mil.
So even though the reports say 260mil there could be more then 310 mil shares available for shorting. But since they hold some in reserve to sell from time to time to lower SP (and then use the lower SP to cover a portion)
This would explain to me
1. Why we do not see really large buys or sells (except when price gets stuck then they sell 50 mil to force it down)
2. They cover over time in small blocks during lows in daily price but sell in large blocks to break price.
This is not 260 mil shares spread over many parties but a large coordinated effort.
On Jan 07 10:07 PM cos1000 wrote:
> s162
>
> Hey there... I can't disagree with your assessment of the possibilities
> in determining the composition of the SI that is out there. My point
> which seems to agree with yours, is that the initial short hedge
> is over.. The short positions out their now as legal shorts, regardless
> of who they are, need to locate / borrow shares from somewhere to
> even be considered in the reported SI numbers. These shares have
> been lent, borrowed, shorted, bought, and turned over many times
> already. We will not know how they were used, but the number of shares
> in SI is conspicuously similar to those originally lent. Until these
> shares are returned to the company they are out there for the share
> borrowers use..... It is my opinion that these shares were also lent
> to remove the "Locate" part of the legal shorting of shares for the
> purpose of initiating the transaction only coming into play if the
> closing out of their positions are made difficult because they cannot
> be purchased on the open market. My opinion is that is not a problem
> for any IB that has shorted this stock to date. Without a lot more
> detail, which us peons do not have access to, their is no real way
> to know how SI is being calculated in the numbers we see. If there
> is I would appreciate someone letting me know......
don't worry too much about this stock making you whimpy..... many including me, have fallen to this stock's power to deflate...... portfolios and egos. Good Luck with your purchases.......
waiting to hear a pre-announce on 4Q might give a better opportunity on this stock's direction moving forward. The volume build is in anticipation of news, IMO. Whether that news is good or bad will determine direction. Having some dry powder on a move down would be good if the news is disappointing. If the news is good, jumping in and catching a longer term momentum that will play through Feb until debt restructuring is announced won't be bad either. Expectations on this stock are for a negative outcome (priced for disaster), any good news will create momentum, because as s162 said above, BK will be off the table. I myself am all in with a little over 70K shares and all my money on this one gone.... unless we get over $1.42. I am willing to wait. I will trade 25% of these shares as the stock moves up (whenever that might be) to secure more shares. That last 18K shares I bought at an average of .118/sh. I am not looking to do much until after the 4Q and debt announcement, one way or the other. This stock is really not moving enough to do much trading lately. Volatility is gone, and information is just not available to answer the important questions yet. Again Good luck as always.....
Yeah, good points. That's the problem. We get no info about the "details" of the hedge. We're told the lenders may hedge to protect their investment but nothing about how those shares may be accounted for after they are used short. Per usual, no transparency for something that really should have it.
Day to day now we continue to get closer. I see 3 mo LIBOR today snuck under 1.4 to 1.39. We continue to see more equity swaps. Relmor had a good point about the strength in that those transactions can still hold value. I agree that as a bondholder, why not take the shares that will be worth much more at a later date--that's the bet on their side and I think a good one. And they wouldn't take the shares if they didn't believe in the company's viability. They still hold a rather substantial stake of common so just adding to it. I'd love to see even a little "good faith" COH used to finish of the 2 1/2% GS Notes--maybe 10 - 20M. Then a new major investor taking a stake in the company for the rest of '09 debt or maybe also an extension on the May bank facility to Dec 2010 as no debt is due next year...
Plenty of possiblities we get closer to every day. Won't be long now.
At merger company was valued at 13 bil
there was 5 mil in "goodwill"
company has debt of 3 bil
does that mean company is worth 5 bil at present?
and if so stock should be around 1.25
after debt paid company would be worth 8 bil and stock 2.00 (in 2015)
Goodwill is an accounting term used to reflect the portion of the book value of a business entity not directly attributable to its assets and liabilities; it normally arises only in case of an acquisition. It reflects the ability of the entity to make a higher profit than would be derived from selling the tangible assets
Basic goodwill formula
Goodwill = Purchase Price – Fair Market Value of Net Assets
Fair Market Value = Net Tangible Assets + Write-up of Net Assets
Net Tangible Assets = Assets – Target's Existing Goodwill – Liabilities
Basically it was bought for more than what it could be pieced out for!
For those that keep wanting to try and compare this reccession to the depression then you have no clue about history. Go back and look at the mid to late 70s or as I like to call them "THE CARTER YEARS" it was much much worse then then it is now. Could it get as bad again, yes because dumb a$$ people just elected a man just as and even more liberial as Carter. The fact is we got through those times and we will get through these.
Fist we know:
Goodwill. . . . . .= 5 Bill
Fair Mkt Value =13 Bill
Purchase price is calculated to be 18Bil according to your numbers from above..
Goodwill = Purchase Price – Fair Market Value of Net Assets
5 Bil = 18 Bil - 13 Bil
Also by definition:
From above Fair Mkt Value = 13 Bil
Mark-up of assets occur during inflationary times, so this is not true
Fair Market Value = Net Tangible Assets + Write-up of Net Assets
13 Bil = 13 Bill + 0 (asssuming assets are at mkt price)
knowing the 13 Bil to be the Net Tangible total below
and addind the Debt = 3 Bil
The formula provides that the Assest are 16 Bil
Providing that there was no Acquisitions by XM prior to the merger with Siri
Net Tangible Assets = Assets – Target's Existing Goodwill – Liabilities
13 Bil = 16 Bil - 0 (no previous acquisitions) - 3 Bill Debt
Can anyone correct my assumptions on Write-up
. . .or
Target's (XM) Existing Goodwill?
Sorry, Mel said that a radio that plays both not be available for years...
Your right, hes said both though...
Carter years are going to be cupcake, we actually had some manufacturing then, didnt have the deficit spending we do now, and the arabs hate us more than they could ever imagine...They switch there allegiances to China/Russia...Troops move in, and its a battleground...Any day...Or never...Thats not good for our economy...Pissing off other countries is getting old, and tehy now how technology and business savy to ruin us if they so choose..
Also the products that we consume of theirs are not theirs, they are ours, they just make them for us (the american companies which make the bulk of the profits that come back to the USA) and the rest of the world. If you really think the future is in manufacturing you are out of your mind. It is in research and development. Why do you think it is so important to get an education
Yes you are correct Mel did say they were years away from having those radios that was after all 2 "YEARS" ago. Remember this merger took a year and a half, then add the 6 to 9 months and there you have it, years away.
cos1000 you remember what I said about the time to buy the shipping sector is coming up, then again with this economy nothing is a sure thing anymore.
So here is a classic example of "when shorts panic cover" ooooo... lol
So today LVLT hit $1.42 and closed @ $1.32 (on essentially no news). On Dec 30 they hit a low of .57 and closed @ .62 (and were being taken down). That was 6 trading days ago. And...they have 1.6B (yes B) outstanding with a heavy debt load...and an average SI of 200M. Sound a little familiar?
My point? Don't under-estimate the power of the dog when the time is at hand...
You just can't whine in the meantime. All in good time. That's how the game works.
As for shipping stocks, I have been watching NM for a while now... do you think DSX is a better bet?
Borrowing money from overseas so we can spend money on products from overseas is not superior to a manufacturing based Economy that produces true wealth. When foreigners stop investing in our "service" economy we collapse...our Economy isn't much different from the madoff scheme only it's 10,000 times bigger
I dont knwo about the economy? Really? Research and develepment. Hold on, let me get a pen, I have to write that one down.
Manufacturing is the ONLY thing that drives economies stupid(and resources) and thats all. If you want to BUY something made in a foreign country you are SENDING money out of OUR system. Every time you buy a forgeign product you hurt americans. Our economy was able to destroy the Germans because we were researching and developing>? No stupid, we beat them because we OUTPRODUCED THEM. Man hours wise we destroyed them here. Now, if you want to be good little christians,and live off your garden and sell oranges to neighbors to pay your bills, then our entire econonmy goes under in 2 days. If no one spent money in the world for 2 days, our entire way of life would be destroyed(ok maybe 2 weeks, lol). Thats how tetertottering we are as a society. We are a service based society that is losing money every day out the country. Printing more money does not make an economy. Maybe you dont understand economics.
1. Buy the 4 or 5 largest software producers in the world.
2. Make a computer that works of your new OS. Have these 4 or 5 companies sell software for it. Start slow, sell a cheap computer than runs it...And start grabbing market share. Start locally work your way out..
Why dont they do this? Too hard, too complicated, and too many opposing factors. Easier to just not do it. But seriously, if microsoft goes out of business, is the world really going to miss it? GE? IBM? After some hiccups, there will be 100 world companies competiting for their market share in under a year. Or just buy their products off them. Now what are we? Agriculture? We sell food, yes huge bonus. But we import energy to grow it...LOL LOL Were the dumbest country in the world, bar none. We can be energy independent any day we want too. Just start the process now, and in 10 years we can laugh at foreign oil. But we wont, and we dont...
One world government doest want that you see...
Cancer is a simple vitamin deficiency that the 'civilized" no longer consumes. Only found in the seeds of fruit(apricots, peaches, apples, etc...) If you break open a peach pit, inside is a litte seed that you eat. This contains massive amounts of B17, and destroys cancer cells and heals surrounding cells with the byproduct. Kind of like scurvey with vitamin c(all diseases are caused by environmental or dietary factors). Small percentage of people are herditarily disposed to being suseptable to certain diseases however, and this is the only variable.
Regarding my post yesterday about LVLT covering...there was news though not of the "specific" company side. It was Obama's speech. He talked about expanding broadband to people who don't have it. All (or most) companies involved with broadband or networking popped yesterday..and that includes LVLT. So a very good impetus for that big short unwind.
Further, yesterday's circumstances bring out an important point where it relates to SIRI. Many people have commented how SIRI rarely moves with the market. Yesterday was a good example of why. The market moves mostly on news and those stocks that are connected to whatever the news was will benefit or not..different sectors etc..The thing about SIRI is it's not really connected to anything tangible. It's product pretty much stands alone (as also demonstrated that they now have no real direct competition). Further, it's a luxury rather than necessity, it's never involved with new spending programs or emphasis allocation, new tech or upgrades made by various entities, groups or municipalities, et al. It's not even really tied to advertising and overall media conditions though it tends to get dragged through that mud by association. Auto sales and general consumer spending are about it for them. So something to keep in mind the next time the general market takes off without them participating on general news, speeches, etc....They're really an island unto themselves to drive their own movement through company performance. IMHO....
On Jan 09 09:02 AM relmor wrote:
> In a way we already do that in our health system. We create the problem(diabetes,
> heart problems, cancer.) and we sell you the cure. Cancer is the
> biggest medical scam in history, right up there with the federal
> reserve not.
> Cancer is a simple vitamin deficiency that the 'civilized" no longer
> consumes. Only found in the seeds of fruit(apricots, peaches, apples,
> etc...) If you break open a peach pit, inside is a litte seed that
> you eat. This contains massive amounts of B17, and destroys cancer
> cells and heals surrounding cells with the byproduct. Kind of like
> scurvey with vitamin c(all diseases are caused by environmental or
> dietary factors). Small percentage of people are herditarily disposed
> to being suseptable to certain diseases however, and this is the
> only variable.
Right on. Although keep in mind, while may other seeds, berries, legumes etc.. are also sources of B17, the seeds you mention also contain the poison known as laetrile--which helps cripple certain types of cancer cells (which are nothing more than deformed and mutated cells of ones own body). So, using this therapy is similar to chemo in that they are both poison but one is natural and one is chemical. I actually eat apricot seeds daily as a cancer prevention thing. But, because they are a source of poison, you have to be careful on how may you consume daily. Recommended is about 5 seeds.
Oh and let's don't forget about AIDS. Another one of our inventions that now is an endless source of drug revenue...
Since the SP is not going to get back to where these first 5k shares were bought they will be sold at a loss.
So the question about timing the sale of these 5k shares. Should I sell them after next rise and then rebuy them after price falls back down? Or continue to hold them hoping for a larger price increase? There is a large price difference between these 5k and the rest. The tax loss would offset any future gains remaining shares earn (and the replacement shares would not have to wait for SP to climb so much.
Hey relmor can you tell me what does Google manufacture. Thats right absolutely nothing. While I am at it, how about Apple, yes you are going to be surprised at how much of that Iphone is manufactured outside of the US, thats right because its most of it. Do you think most of the profits go to the manufacturer, no they go to Apple. Yes the people who came up with the idea, the people that did the research and development of it.
Do you really think it is some kind of quark of fate that a country with a much smaller population then many other countries could be the worlds super power and economic power in just 200 years. Do you really think India and China could not out manufacture us, when they have over 1.5 billion people each compared to our 300 million. So why are both been in such piss poor shape for so long. The USA is great because of our capitalistic system, that is why we get the intelligent people to come here.
Yes, apple makes products not one person on this planet needs...
Google makes nothing this planet needs...
Notice what happened to apple stock at 200...And google....Notice what happened to mosaic and potash..Notice which ones are going back up faster...Notice what gold mines did since the bottom...Notice what apple has done...Market speaks for itself...
What to guess which stock market recovers faster? Chinas or US's ? Do you want to place a bet?
www.optionpain.com/Max...
Basically it was impossible for Siri stock to jump, the number of leaps and long calls would have made it impossible to deliver stock for in the money call holders. We are in the "pain" right now....
As for a bunch of numbers please dont, as I cant trust anyone who thinks you would rather be making cell phones right now vs. food products or resources. What do you think they make the phone with? Magic? Well people in the US think so , because they dont make it.
Make us energy independent, open up the alaska oil, etc... and make us a superpower for the next 100 years. Better yet, dont use oil at all locally much, and enact better energy policies(needed to be done 50 years ago).
You want to go on?
Now as for China, I will bet on us, first of all believe it or not China has been the third biggest economy for the last 200 years that has not ever changed. Unless they change their way of doing things they will collapse under their own pressure. (As a side note: FACT; China is the biggest offender of pirating research and development in the world today.) I got that from the History channel.
Now you say the US is the weakest financially what crap, do you ever check your facts. Lets see we are the worlds largest economy head of the G-8, and the World Bank, not to mention Pakistan almost went into bankruptcy thats right I didnt think it possible ether a "country" , but according to the world bank, if they could not secure financing they would consider them bankrupt and not loan them anymore money. relmor, you would know about this kind of information if you would get your head out of the clouds with the conspiracy theory and listen/read the news every once in a while.
Also from reading your post I can now tell you pull crap out of thin air.
They didnt move the factories to stay competitive, the very first factory that moved did so 100 percent for greed reasons. Cheaper labor, period. So ofset that labor costs with higher tariffs on that competitors product. You nip it in the bud right there. If you cant grasp this simple concept, then I dont know what to tell you.
The first jobs that went overseas were for things we already made here. Why did we stop making them over here? Because the company that used to make them over here has lets say 5 competitiors. When company a(the first company to save labor costs) moves to China, your forcing every company that makes that product to do the same, or be at a huge competitive disadvantage. I dont blame company b, c, d, and e. I blame our government at the time for allowing company a for moving. Do you understand now? Or should I talk slower. China and Japan have always had high tariffs for our products, but we never returned the favor, free trade was the motto. Good for countries with a trade surplus, bad for countries that dont enjoy one. Go look at your little charts expert, and you come back and tell me the last time we had a trade surplus.
Our country is strong? No sir, our country in bankrupt. If we dont sell treasuries we dont pay our bills. when no more treasuries, no more country. Here comes the North AMerican Union, and a new currency. but you can believe what you want, you probably vote democrat or republican and havent dont anything different since you could vote. And you wonder why we have problems. Becuase of you thats why.
relmor, You think the US economy is bad compared to all others, try looking at Germanys economy then come back and say that crap. Heres a hint; When you cant stop trading with a small country like Iran to stop them from getting a nuck because it would effect your economy to much then your countrys economy is in tuff shape. I will let you look up their average; unemployment rate, GDP, GNP, ect., ect. they all suck also when compared to the US
Germany doesnt run a trillion dollar deficit every year. They are closer to "real work units" backing up their currency than we are. What is the better company...One that gross's 100 billion dollars a year, but spends 200 billion, or a company that gross's 1 billiondollars a year, and spends 500 million. As a stockholder Ill take the second company. When you thinking about parking your assets, you dont park them with a thief. Is that clear enough for you? Do you get it now? I dont care how BIG supposedly our economy is, its weak, frail and compeltely reliant on the service sector. If clothes were coming here too cheap to compete than you raise your tariffs. Case closed,. I win, you lose. Governments job is to protect american business interests, not the consumers. To protect jobs, not cheap clothing. You dont get it, and probably voted Obama.
But another problem with manufacturing here is there is less of a willing workforce. It's the downside of education and increasing smarts. The factory workforce base from the industrial age are now too old or dead. And people nowadays are told they NEED to go to college to survive, get a degree and learn technology (how to use it, not how to make the boxes they use it on). So in a sense, we're outgrowing the manufacturing concept here. Keep in mnd we are nation of about 300M people. Other places like China have over a billion (1.25 as of 2000)...and they grow by 12-13M every year while we grow at only 3-4M . So that's over 3 times more all the way around, so naturally they are going to have more of a pop base in which to work in factories and plants--most of which are poor so jump at the chance to be trained and paid a fraction of what an American would demand. They are in a way where we were 50, 75 or 100 years ago. People (like my grandparents) took boats here just so they could work in factories (that were plentiful and growing). They jumped at the chance because in the country they lived, they were poor with no opportunities, no factories to work in. Granted today we still have the poor here but much less willing to do the same work that trainable Chinese counterparts jump at the chance to do for less. That allure, and with them coming out of strict communism towards more capitalism-oriented, corps here saw that and licked their greedy chops. Now the genie is out and good luck putting it back in.
With the dollar continuing to lose value as the Fed keeps writing funny checks (so banks make interest (real money)) on thin air, there will be no way to stop the overall deflation (resulting in inflation under the radar). Again, Nixon was the last bastion on gold and once that was gone, there is nothing let to do but float in free space into newer and newer horizons. With the tether cut, there is no way back. All we can do is keep moving forward using new math and perception. Who knows how long that can sustain? It could be quite a while or it could all come down hard and fast, like in 5 years. From what I've read, the overseas dollars won't ever be a problem here because they have a plan for those. By making dollars here different than overseas, they will make the overseas dollars illegal here. So there are aleady two Americas. One here and the monetary only one over seas. Without gold, it's a mess but there is no other solution left but to keep finding ways to change the scheme so order is maintained.
Although, having said all that. I have to keep reminding myself what America really is. Of all the countriesd in the world, America is the only true hybrid/melting pot. I grew up in the 60's and 70's and my concept of this country was that it was filled with Americans. Like "American" was an actual ethnicity. But unlike most other countries in the world, there really is no such thing as "American" unless you're a "Native American," who's ancestors were actually "here" before everyone else showed up. But as everyone else has shown up (from everywhere else), Native Americans were swept to the side. So what populates this country is "people from other countries." IMO, that's really why we became a super power. THE super power. It's because this was the place to come to and so it attracted MANY of the best, brightest, et al, from all over the world, who then became "Americans". So we keep forgetting this, yet at some point we want to believe we are just our own kind...American. Everyone here is American second (technically), with a particular lineage to another part of the world. If you go to those places, they are themselves in their native country (like our Native Americans were..until "We the People from out of town" cast them aside)... Russian, Chinese, Italian, Swedish, Irish. They are them and we are "a collection" of them. That is why I believe that America, though it's disliked in certain places around the globe, remains and always will remain the hub of the world. This country is the hub and its currency is preferred all over the world...and most likely will always be in some form (whatever it might be called 50 - 100 years from now)..that is if the planet is still spinning by then lol!
It's tough that our gold standard is gone and our manufacturing is gone too. But I think we have to look at it as a new future. This country is evolving into something else right now. What exactly, who's to say but eventually, it should find a new waterline in reinvention. We're still the best country in the world (IMHO) and I think we're smart enough to navigate this new reality to which we're headed. The past is gone and the future is all that is left. Is it crash and burn? Somehow I don't think so..not by ourselves and not to the point where suddenly one day another country takes our place as the hub. We're the hub becaue we're the most unique. No other country is like us period (and that's part of our strength). If it's to be a crash, it most likely be the whole damn thing that comes down. It's happened before on thiis planet it can certainly happen again. Thing is now, there are no more "new worlds" to sail to and start something new and crude from the bottom up. We're at the point of facing an uncertain, unchartered space-aged future driven exclusively by technology. Just that fact alone should scare the snot out of everyone (because our unknowns now outweigh the knowns that have been our "relative" standards for decades and a few centuries. Monetary issues aside...can we navigate that and make it work? In the 1800's, it was pretty damn simple--we ate dirt and told each other stories. In the 1900's we taught ourselves and made a few cool new things to make life easier and things got a little more complex--still relatively straight-forward though and easy to understand. In the 2000's, simplicity is gone--been there done that...the things we can now make/create are scary cool and life-changing and mega-complex...so all bets are off as to where this all leads. Where ever it is it will be a far cry from cowboys and indians and listening to a "new" gadget called the radio. If we're going to survive it, we just have to keep at least 2 wheels on the road at all times and keep adjusting to the new realities of the day and maintain order. Might not be pretty, but it can be done..it has to be or we die. IMHO.
Wanted to get back to you on LiveWire. I was cleaning up my portfolio watch list and saw a ticker on it that I used to follow and trade. It was NMSS (NMS Communications). I see now what happend. They were a business platform company that failed. Prior to that they created a subsidiary business in personalization for mobile comm called...LiveWire. When NMSS failed, they used LiveWire as a lifeboat and sold off flotsam of NMSS to another company and rowed away as LiveWire (and changed their ticker to (or rolled NMSS into) LVWR) and are a .15 stock. Keep in mind it is the same management that failed the NMSS business and their last few Q's missed badly by .07.
You mentioned that you couldn't trade their stock through your broker. 1. Could have been because of the new ticker change which happened Dec 8 and MM's could have been scarce or confused. 2. Your broker probably did you a favor by keeping you out of this company. Looks dangerous to me...
On Jan 10 12:08 AM sl62 wrote:
t from .08 on 30 Dec (day I wanted to buy 10k) to .16.9 Fri
Company paid off debt and it's officers are buying shares.
I just wanted to ride the pop.
> mogami_99...
>
> Wanted to get back to you on LiveWire. I was cleaning up my portfolio
> watch list and saw a ticker on it that I used to follow and trade.
> It was NMSS (NMS Communications). I see now what happend. They were
> a business platform company that failed. Prior to that they created
> a subsidiary business in personalization for mobile comm called...LiveWire.
> When NMSS failed, they used LiveWire as a lifeboat and sold off flotsam
> of NMSS to another company and rowed away as LiveWire (and changed
> their ticker to (or rolled NMSS into) LVWR) and are a .15 stock.
> Keep in mind it is the same management that failed the NMSS business
> and their last few Q's missed badly by .07.
>
> You mentioned that you couldn't trade their stock through your broker.
> 1. Could have been because of the new ticker change which happened
> Dec 8 and MM's could have been scarce or confused. 2. Your broker
> probably did you a favor by keeping you out of this company. Looks
> dangerous to me...
SIRI on the other hand 20k shares-Long.
SIRI on the other hand 20k shares-Long.
Got it. Although now look, they've started to retrack. When would you have gotten out? That's the trouble with micro cap penny stocks that low and where the company and product/service is questionable. The next step for these guys IMO is BB or Pinks once the NAS extrensions expire and then probably under .10 to sub penny. Mgmt might have been buying shares but that's not very hard for them at these prices. Most likely that's the only reason the stock went up. From here it will be about fundementals for them--which are suspect. And the lifeboat routine is awfully suspicious!
For those types of penny trades as you say, I prefer larger, more established companies who are beaten up. You actually would have done better taking CHTR from .08 to.23 this week. Or LVLT from .62 to 1.60 in the same timeframe. JMO...
Now, as I have told you before the reason Germany cant run a deficit like the USA can is because they dont have the collaterial the US does. Fact; if you could not get a loan for as much as I could, then your finacial position is worse then mine. It works the same for companies and countries alike.
Next you said this:
" If your going to "float" you countries future, why would you float it on the likes of our bankrupt corporation. Id bank it on my own country first(as China is currently doing if you have been paying attention)."
That is totally false because China pegs their yhon directly to the dollar.
Finally I know everything you say is a load of crap, because first of all you say the service sector is a worthless thing, then you invest in a service sector company like SIRIXM. Next you can bet against the USA all you want. I can just say that every time it has been done before, those people lose. Just fact there for you. You might be to young or have a failing memory to know that.