Williams-Sonoma: 'Homing' In on Value

Williams-Sonoma (WSM) has been thrashed by the market. As a retailer of specialty home products, it has seen revenue declines of about 20% from last year thanks to the deflating housing bubble. The stock, however, has been beaten down by over 80% from its high at the height of the boom. With a price to book value under one and a P/E of six, this stock appears to offer value at its current price.

The company has earned an average of $1.75 per share annually in the last four years, while the stock trades at just $8.31. While we may not see earnings return to those levels for some time, depending on the length and magnitude of this downturn, there are several reasons to believe the company can survive and be profitable in the coming years.

First, its debt to equity ratio sits at just 2%. While the company does have operating lease commitments, many of them expire in the next 1-3 years, giving the company the flexibility to either close cash negative stores, or negotiate costs downward.

Furthermore, the company's sales channels are not limited to retail locations. Almost half of WSM's revenue comes from catalogue sales. Since such sales require less in the way of assets, it is much easier to scale down costs in this business as compared to the bricks and mortar model employed by most retailers. Costs of a variable nature (rather than fixed) can be a tremendous strength when the economy is contracting.

The company also has a wide array of brands and store concepts, including Pottery Barn and West Elm, in addition to the Williams-Sonoma brands. This diversity reduces the risk that one brand or store concept that goes out of fashion will permanently impair the company.

While there is no current end in sight for the housing industry drought (which we've explored most recently by looking at inventory numbers), WSM looks like a stock that can outlast the downturn, and represents a great value opportunity for those with a long-term outlook.

Disclosure: None

Comments

[Guero:]

It's probably a good thing that W-S exposure to lease commitments is relatively low, it's way more prefereable to sell $50 carrot peelers over the internet rather than in an overpriced retail location.

Jan 08 12:15 PM

[GreenBlogger:]

Williams Sonoma Inc. generated $729.4 million in sales during the eight weeks leading up to Dec. 28, a 22.6% drop from the $942 million it pulled in during the eight weeks before Dec. 30, 2007. Comparable store sales fell by 24.2%.

The consumer is telling me is Williams-Sonoma is at the wrong place at the wrong time. I see them running out of business within 12 months.

Jan 09 12:30 PM