All Eyes on Jobs Data

Let's have a quick look at what to look for when employment or (jobs) data is released. No doubt folks will spin the numbers to meet their objectives. But here is where you can find the actual most current release. Yahoo does a nice economic calendar, so you can track when the Department of Labor releases the raw numbers. You know I cherry pick the good ones. If you like -- you can find the gloomy ones on your own.

Let's first look at a snapshot of last week's initial claims for unemployment report:

click to enlarge

Source: US Dept of Labor

You may remember that everyone was surprised by the large drop by 94,000 claims. What was more noteworthy was that the 4-week moving average also showed a decline.

If that 4-week moving average number continues to remain negative, that is a "leading indicator" of continued good news for the jobs market.

In any case, there are new jobs being created out there. From the Tuesday Department of Labor monthly report entitled "Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment Summary", there are indeed places where jobs are solid:

Of the 369 areas covered by the report-
1) Eight metro areas registered unemployment rates of only 3.0 percent.
2) 34 of areas registered rates below 4.0 percent.
3) 218 of areas (59%) reported rates below the national average of 6.5 percent.

The largest year over year percentage gains in employment among the major metropolitan divisions were recorded in:

Fort Worth-Arlington, Texas (+1.8 percent)
Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, Wash. (+1.6 percent)
Dallas-Plano-Irving, Texas (+1.5 percent)
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, D.C.-Va.-Md.-W.Va. (+1.1 percent)

Just more evidence that this continued dire commentary on the US economy is overblown.

It's 2009. It is time to get focused on recovery, period.