The 12 Most Important Cars of 2009

It's going to be one crummy year for the auto industry. General Motors (GM) and Chrysler are struggling just to survive, and many of their competitors are losing money. Sales in 2009 are likely to be even lower than in 2008—which itself was one of the worst years in decades. Hundreds of dealers will probably go out of business, and weak brands like Saturn, Mercury, and Dodge could shrink dramatically or end up rolled into other divisions.

Yet the tough economy could make 2009 a watershed year for cars. With buyers scarce, slow-selling models—often relegated to rental fleets—could disappear completely. A new spate of hybrids will test whether large numbers of Americans really want to pay extra money upfront to save a few bucks at the pump. Lower gas prices might give SUVs a reprieve. And a few game-changing vehicles could offer consumers even more choices—while forcing other manufacturers to catch up or become obsolete.

Here are some of the most significant vehicles to keep an eye on over the next 12 months:

Honda Insight. (Expected in April, starting price under $20,000) Why should Toyota (TM) have all the fun? The new Insight is Honda's hybrid-only answer to the Toyota Prius, which dealers could barely keep in stock last year, as gas prices soared to $4 per gallon. "Honda hates to lose market share to any car company, but it especially hates to lose potential sales to Toyota," says Jack Nerad of car-research site kbb.com. "Thus, it has created this Prius-fighter." Honda hopes to entice buyers with a lower starting price than the Prius and overall mileage in the mid-40s. The Insight will also reveal whether hybrids are becoming mainstream or appeal to buyers only when gas prices are high.

Toyota Prius. (Late spring, about $22,000) To keep things lively, Toyota will introduce a brand-new version of the trendsetting Prius around the time the Honda Insight rolls out. Toyota is promising to raise the bar for hybrids, with innovative new features, greater comfort and performance, and mileage that's higher than the 46 mpg of the current Prius. But expect the same pod-shaped styling that has made the Prius instantly recognizable.

Ford Fusion hybrid. (April, about $27,000) Ford knows it can't stand by while Honda and Toyota corner the hybrid market, especially in midsize sedans. The gas-powered Fusion has competed successfully against the Honda Accord and the Toyota Camry, and Ford hopes the new Fusion hybrid will solidify its presence in the vital midcar segment. The Fusion is a bit larger than the Prius or Insight, making it more of a family vehicle likely to compete with the Camry hybrid. Its main selling point will be mileage close to 40 mpg, compared with 34 mpg for the Camry hybrid.

Chevrolet Equinox. (June, about $25,000) Compact crossovers are one of the fastest-growing segments, and as usual, the Japanese are in the lead. The current Chevy Equinox is a middling performer compared with the Toyota Rav4, Honda CR-V, and Nissan Rogue. For Chevy to claim more of this important turf, the redesigned Equinox needs to have better fuel economy and an optional third-row seat, according to car-research site Edmunds.com. A bit more pizazz wouldn't hurt, either.

Mazda5. (Available now, about $18,000) This "microvan," which seats six, comes standard with a five-speed manual transmission, and is actually fun to drive, was an oddity when it debuted a couple of years ago. But young families looking for something cheaper—and cooler—than a full-blown minivan love it. "The Mazda5 has broken out a whole new category," says analyst Tom Libby of J.D. Power & Associates. "We could see that grow." The Mazda5's success means Honda and others could soon be selling similar vehicles—and regular minivans could be on their way out.

Ford Taurus. (Summer, about $25,000) The Taurus, introduced in 1986, was one of Ford's most successful cars of the past 50 years. So for reasons known only in Dearborn, Ford let the car age gracelessly, killed it altogether in 2006, then realized its mistake and attached the Taurus name to another uninspiring sedan. Ford now gets a chance to redeem itself. Early photos of the new model show that "the exterior design looks sharp," according to Edmunds. If that's matched by a crisp ride and handsome interior, Ford may have another winner.

Mercedes GLK. (Available now, about $35,000) As the compact crossover segment grows, the luxury niche is going to get more crowded, too. The BMW X3 and Acura RDX were early entries, and the GLK will test whether an ambitious newcomer can muscle them aside. Mercedes also needs to prove it can lure entry-luxe buyers as effectively as BMW and Lexus. The competition will quickly intensify: Audi, Volvo, Lincoln, and Cadillac also have compact crossovers coming soon or in the works.

Honda Fit. (Available now, about $15,000) Just when you thought small, low-budget cars had to be boring, Honda introduced the Fit and proved that a diminutive hatchback can actually be delightful. The Fit drives like a go-cart and has surprising room for cargo, thanks to the rear "MagicSeat" that folds flat into the floor. Fear of costly gas has reintroduced Americans to small cars, and if competitors can't match the Fit's fun and practicality, their customers will simply defect to Honda—and buy even more Civics, Accords, and CR-Vs as they become more prosperous and upgrade.

Ford Flex. (Available now, about $29,000) Ford took a risk on the Flex, creating a cavernous, boxy, and pricey people-hauler that may not connect with consumers in an era of thrift. And Ford needs to sell a lot of them to turn around its money-losing operation and become profitable. Ford's whole restructuring plan is based on the mass-market success of key models like the Flex. If any of them flop, Ford, like GM and Chrysler, could be bailoutbound.

Ford F-150. (Available now, upwards of $22,000) This work truck has been Ford's cash cow for years. But sales plunged as the housing bust, $4 gas, and now the recession have crimped buyers. Worse, the new Toyota Tundra full-size pickup threatens to steal customers. Ford hopes that F-150 sales will bounce back vigorously once a housing recovery starts to materialize and contractor activity picks up. "The F-150 is very important for profitability," says Libby. "Ford needs to remain a leader in full-size pickups. And eliminate any erosion of the market to the Tundra."

Hyundai Genesis. (Available now, about $33,000) It's a luxury sedan from a budget nameplate. And surprise: It delivers. "This car has the goods," says Nerad. "But one wonders what the reaction to its brand will be among luxury buyers." If well-heeled buyers bite, it will put pressure on Lexus, Acura, Infiniti, and other luxury makes to lower prices and offer even more features. And if Hyundai succeeds as a luxury brand, expect even more competition in the crowded entry-luxe territory.

Volkswagen Jetta TDI (Available now, about $23,000) Volkswagen is a small player in the U.S. market, and sales of the TDI—the turbo-diesel version of the Jetta sedan—will be low under any scenario. But the TDI is one of the first affordable cars to offer new "clean diesel" technology in the United States. And it's impressive. The TDI's acceleration is lively, with gas mileage you'd expect from the most miserly econobox. Overall mileage averages a thrifty 33 mpg—with highway mileage of 40 mpg. That's with virtually none of the smoky exhaust that characterized diesels of yore. One catch is that the TDI has to be fueled with new low-sulfur diesel, which is more costly than gas and not always widely available. But if the TDI catches on, look for greater access to the fuel, along with more diesel models—and a possible sneak attack on hybrids.

Disclosure: Author has no positions.

Comments

[hoffman23:]

Maybe I'm biased, but the most exciting car in years, the 2010 Chevrolet Camaro is going into production in March. And you think the Flex, Fusion hybrid, and Jetta deserve a higher place on the list? The word "Clueless" comes to mind.

Jan 08 03:53 PM

[Jeff B.:]

Rick: Good call on the most important cars, but I have two comments:
1. The Chevy Equinox? Please. This is the same vehicle that typically shows up at the bottom of customer satisfaction lists, with a drivetrain made in China (maybe Melamine has contaminated the engine?). There's nothing "middling" about this vehicle. The chances of GM outcompeting the CRV, RAV4, Rogue, etc. are near zero in my book. So I woudln't consider this an important vehicle.
2. Maybe we should leave a blank space on the list for Chrysler? My thinking is that Chrysler isn't on this list because they don't make a single vehicle that comes close to leading any segment they serve. IN fact, I'd say there is no chance at all that they will develop anything competitive before they waste the taxpayers' $4B on new "Ram Tough" ads or more irrelevant R/T versions of cars no one wants in the first place. Chrysler is conspicuous by it's absence, no?

Peace.

Jan 08 04:02 PM

[John D:]

Even though GM gets critisism for having to many product lines there are many in their lineup that have good value, great resale and great gas mileage according to many (Impala, Malibu, Vibe, Silverado for a few) If anyone is out to buy a new car there is at least one from GM that would compare to just about any other product. That being said they will be forced into reducing their brands just to save money which will take some options away from the customer.
You also have to consider that buying from Detoit that it is a great way to make your investment as a taxpayer prosper and help the ailing economy by providing a proven 30% more jobs to the local economy and help out greatly in these desperate times for all.

Jan 08 04:19 PM

[tomwilly:]

Good pick on the F150, Ford should have no worries as anyone with an ounce of intelligence should recognize that Toyota’s foray into the large pickup market is a failure. They may sell a good number of these turds, but based on the poor engineering, high recall rate and pathetic gas mileage they’re selling these things based on their expertise with cars, certainly not trucks, which they obviously have none.

Jan 08 05:05 PM

[Brad Toothman:]

Tundra threatens to steal customers? Is that a joke? A don't think a poor engine, ugly body, terrible fuel economy, and numerous recalls will give the best selling VEHICLE in America much of a problem. The all new F-150 could very well beat Tundra's yearly sells every month.

The Amercian public has a choice of half tons from Ford, Chevy, and Dodge- all far superior to the Tundra. It would be embarrassing to drive the worst half ton on the market, only to support the Japanese economy.

Jan 08 05:36 PM

[303820:]

SOME FACTS ON THE TOYOTA PRIUS...WITH A PRICE TAG OF $22000 AND A MPG OF 46. YOU'LL HAVE TO OWN IT FOR 17 YEARS TO BREAK EVEN AT TODAY GAS PRICES...COMPARE TO THE COBALT $12000 AND A MPG OF 37. NOT TO MENTION THAT THE PRIUS IS IMPORTED AND THE COBALT IS MADE IN AMERICA!

Jan 08 06:44 PM

[Jolly_Rancher:]

And consider that the battery is made of very toxic material that must be replaced every 5 years or so.


On Jan 08 06:44 PM 303820 wrote:

> SOME FACTS ON THE TOYOTA PRIUS...WITH A PRICE TAG OF $22000 AND A
> MPG OF 46. YOU'LL HAVE TO OWN IT FOR 17 YEARS TO BREAK EVEN AT TODAY
> GAS PRICES...COMPARE TO THE COBALT $12000 AND A MPG OF 37. NOT TO
> MENTION THAT THE PRIUS IS IMPORTED AND THE COBALT IS MADE IN AMERICA!

Jan 08 09:04 PM

[fredfs:]

I get 47-48 mpg with my turbo diesel. Are you sure of your figures ?

Jan 08 11:09 PM

[bosun.j:]

This appears to be yet another article in support of Ricks larger agenda of breaking the union.

Jan 09 03:36 AM

[Paul Killinger:]

I think the guy who talked about the Cobalt is right on. PRICE will be the most important feature of new cars for the next several years. The $10K Nissan Versa and the loaded $13K Jeep Patriot also come to mind.

Detroit is making another MAJOR misstep if they believe they can hinge their future on $30K pickups. Whatever happened to small trucks and entry level full sized ones? (Which is why Nissan covets Dodge's truck division by the way.)

If Detroit doesn't get with it, and SOON, even the Feds will run out of patience and money after awhile.

Jan 09 10:04 AM

[Tony C:]

<<<I get 47-48 mpg with my turbo diesel. Are you sure of your figures ? >>>

The route VW took to clean the emissions on the latest TDIs is costing them in fuel economy. Plus the cars are heavier. The days of a new Jetta getting 50 mpg are likely gone, unless you really hyper-mile the thing.

Jan 20 02:22 PM

[Tony C:]

<<<And consider that the battery is made of very toxic material that must be replaced every 5 years or so.>>>

Another lie.
The Prius has been for sale in the US for longer than this, and Toyota is seeing few if any battery pack replacements. In my state, the batteries in the car come with a 10 year warranty.

Jan 20 02:24 PM

[Gravity404:]

Yeah, the throw-back rattle wagon worked real well for Ford too...


On Jan 08 03:53 PM hoffman23 wrote:

> Maybe I'm biased, but the most exciting car in years, the 2010 Chevrolet
> Camaro is going into production in March. And you think the Flex,
> Fusion hybrid, and Jetta deserve a higher place on the list? The
> word "Clueless" comes to mind.

Jan 21 03:12 PM